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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Sep 24 2015, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 10:19 AM)
i used to care about what they say but no more.

local ib's, bankers in general, developers... all of them are eternal optimists w/o much objectivity and always "afraid" of telling bad news until it is full blown.

can't blame them for wanting to avoid a fate like that of the edge.
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I have a few IBs previously. Now I stick to 2. 1 in Malaysia and 1 in Singapore. This 2 bankers give me very good advice. They are not always optimistic. Sometimes, they ask me to do nothing. Although doing nothing will affect their business

I get weekly updates on major forex from them. Sometimes optimistic, sometimes perssimistic. I act on their advice and they are right more than they are wrong. So I trust them so far.
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post Sep 24 2015, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 24 2015, 10:24 AM)
It is nothing new for these big organizations to make predictions.

Ok, since you've formed an opinion already. Who is good at predictions and who is bad?

If nothing major changes I expect it to be lower than now.
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I have PMed you the good bankers I use now. I won't tell the bad ones tongue.gif

I also think it won't be better for RM. I will buy if it dips below 4.30 now. I expect RM to fall at least to 4.50 by the end of the year


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post Sep 24 2015, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 24 2015, 10:30 AM)
After a month of 2 time, IBs or analysts can write another report, due to fundamental deteriorating, world economy slowdown etc, then change the target price to other figure.

This is quite common happening in stock market.
Target price being revised many time in a year... whistling.gif
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Of course. There is no prediction which is static. In fact, things could change in the next hour. Like a terrorist nukes New York. US$ will tumble. RM back to 3.30. Gold will soar

What I am saying is without a time frame, no prediction is meaningful. That is what I am saying to the pessimist and negative people here who avoided to make a meaningful prediction. They are just afraid to be wrong. While the professionals like IBs with much higher reputation is not afraid to do that in the open

I guess this is all about personal ego as big as a watermelon tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 10:39 AM)

i stopped putting a number to it.

like i said many times, as long as commodities prices stay low, usual gomen carefree spending, more bijan chronicles, putrajaya/bnm do nothing about int rates, it will just keep going in same direction. yes, for me, it's that simple. tongue.gif
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Fair enough. How do you make a decision when to invest. Curious to know...
Showtime747
post Sep 24 2015, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 24 2015, 11:03 AM)
Thanks, as mentioned I think private advice will probably be more accurate than public predictions by these institutions.
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Their advice is based on the research done by their team. I tell them my objective and my preference and they apply the most current scenario tailor made to my needs.

Not all bankers do that. Most are just like salesmen, just want business by recommending anything which makes them the most commission. As time goes by, I will know who is good and who is bad. And the quality of research teams plays a big part.

Let's see the 4.30 buy, 4.50 TP is correct or not tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 11:11 AM)

no, i don't do fx trading.

i just hold whatever fx i hav, do sgreits, some small time crude trading.
i smell major fall in dow before year end. tongue.gif
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Ya, I think DJI (and all other markets too) will tumble.

Great mind think alike ? tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 24 2015, 11:17 AM)
Personally I think you should buy the RM when he finally gets it and steps down. So there's a prediction and a time frame smile.gif
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No he won't step down. Or it will take 2-3 years for him to step down

There you go. My prediction is with a time frame tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 24 2015, 12:37 PM)
Then what is your prediction of RM by year end?
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Read the above. I already gave the specific numbers and time frame twice

I will post for the 3rd time for you specifically --> I buy my bankers' advice - buy when it is <4.30. TP is 4.50. Before year end. It has already touched 4.40 today. I bought last Friday at 4.22xx. Not far away from 4.50 thumbup.gif

I hope those pessimist and negative people will be very specific. It adds perspective to our debate. The sky will not fall down when your prediction is wrong. Why afraid to be wrong ? Your ego is so big even you are wrong in cyber world, you cannot take it ? tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 24 2015, 12:51 PM)
I look at it as a chance to convert more MYR into the SGD, since I am taking a longterm bet that Msia will still lose out to Sgp. I hoped they eased, just like in January this yr if my memory serves me correctly.
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Good strategy. Long term view always prevail. But if you are trading and taking advantage of the volatility, then you have to act more short term.

Having said that, I think SGD will still be better than RM even for short term.
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post Sep 24 2015, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 24 2015, 03:01 PM)
In the long term yes, but the thing is, will it lose out to opportunity cost?
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That's why unker dreamer always say - don't put all your eggs in 1 basket. Spread your risk thumbup.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 24 2015, 03:33 PM)
Tks,... I don't think the weakening of the SGD will remain for long. Certainly the longer that it is down, the more opportunity cost incurred. But then again, I don't have any other better places or instruments to invest into, or that I am confident of sufficiently.
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I thought you invest in US stock too ?
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post Sep 24 2015, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 04:20 PM)
one possibility...

sgd will take over old usd rate... 3.30, then 4.00, 4.40.

ok, give it 5 years. tongue.gif
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At least you give a time frame like a man with balls tongue.gif
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post Sep 24 2015, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(Brandon323 @ Sep 24 2015, 04:28 PM)
May I know how do you buy USD? Do you convert at normal bank forex rate? I read that you also use DCI: do you often use that to convert? (I have not used before) Curious to know how much is the spread can you save by using DCI?(I assume you get a better rate) And also finally, if you buy at 4.22 and intend to sell at 4.5, that is quite short term trading, are you sure that is a good way to make money? I am more of a long term holder of any kind of instruments and I seldom trade in and out as commission kills in the long run.
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Both getting currency and DCI. Buying currency the spread is higher than DCI. But I get preferential rate (not usual board rate). I have 2 banks which I can compare and get me very competitive rates. Whereas DCI is at spot or very close to spot, depending on your strike price. But for DCI sometimes you cannot convert. When you play DCI for longer time, then you are bound to have many currencies in different forex accounts. I should start looking at forex trading. I think the spread is the lowest.

After some time when you have different currencies in your accounts, that is the time when you have a lot of possibilities to play with. You can just hold it, trade stocks in that currencies for short term, or pair it further with DCI. Some pairing now gives >20% interest because of the volatility. My last pairing in US$ is ~24% ohmy.gif

Yes, I am currently short term as the volatility is very high. That is the opportunity to make more money (and chance to lose more money too). I believe the stock market risk is even higher that they may crash. So I am out of the stock market temporarily.

If you are a long term holder, the above is not the way. What are the instruments you invest in now ?
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post Sep 24 2015, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 24 2015, 04:39 PM)
Yo position is indeed sharp  thumbup.gif as I bot @ higher price 4.2370 although on same day  cry.gif
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Could have done better if I buy a little bit later (gone in too early) as it fell further down to 4.20xx spot. Could have gotten for 4.21xx. Well one can never buy at the bottom and sell at the top
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post Sep 24 2015, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 04:34 PM)
ok, i give more time sensitive detailed calc:

int rate parity => msia int rate need to be 7.3% against sgd's near zero to stay at current 3.1.

1.073@5 yrs, compound = 1.422; x today's 3.1=4.40.

just for brain exercise but maybe it just might come out that way, ya? tongue.gif
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Good projection. Simple and straight model thumbup.gif If the current scenario remain unchanged, then I think 4.40 is possible as projected in your model

But that is not in the interest of those monkeys in charge of the economy. When malaysia is poor, they have less to songlap also. So I think situation will change and your calculation will change accordingly. I hope we will not face SGD 4.40 in 5 years time...
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post Sep 24 2015, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(drake88 @ Sep 24 2015, 06:07 PM)
Do you mind sharing which bank you proceed with DCI? Max i got is 21% in this week with minimum strike rate and 1 week contract.

Thank you in advance smile.gif
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PMed. I did that last Friday when US$ is taking a breather. Monday early morning it has already up.

You need a good banker to alert you when rates are favourable
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post Sep 24 2015, 06:53 PM

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QUOTE(Brandon323 @ Sep 24 2015, 06:35 PM)
Ok, thanks. You are right that forex trading's quotes are the tightest but the reliability of the broker is a concern. Maybe I should not use the term instruments because I invest in ordinary stuffs like stocks, reits, long term holding for mutual funds. Looking to diversify further into overseas stocks.
Good steady and safe instruments you have there. Ya, I think if you believe in those, you should diversify into forex denominated investment very soon. No harm doing diversification


QUOTE(Brandon323 @ Sep 24 2015, 06:35 PM)
Curious to know also what kind of funds must one have before you can deal with DCI locally or have RMs attend to you. And how about in Singapore? What kind of funds before they allocate RMs to you? Do you conduct the DCI through phone alone after signing some documents when setting up?
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For DCI, most banks have reduced minimum amount down to RM50k. Used to be RM250k minimum. I believe you have read the thread on DCI here ?

RM usually is allocated for those with "preferred", "premium", "preferential" or "privileged" accounts, or whatever term each bank uses. I think the minimum amount defers from bank to bank. Used to be RM300k. I heard it is up to RM1m now. If I am not wrong, CIMB also cater to lesser amount but they call it "prime" customers. I think there is 1 thread about these accounts here too

In Singapore the bank I use set the minimum at US$300k. I am not sure about other banks though.

For DCI in malaysia, I communicate with my RM using Whatsapp only tongue.gif For my singapore account they require the transaction to be recorded, so must be through voice confirmation over the phone. Whatsapp cannot
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post Sep 24 2015, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 24 2015, 06:53 PM)
I have my allocation to the other side of the world setup. My allocation to this side is still bullish on Sgp.
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thumbup.gif And SGX has no tax
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post Sep 24 2015, 07:03 PM

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QUOTE(PrinceHamsap @ Sep 24 2015, 06:58 PM)
this was my post back Aug 10th
ouch

should i dump a part of my money in USD or SGD ?
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You use USD right ? If you don't use SGD, then all USD better
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post Sep 26 2015, 03:30 PM

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http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ays-kadir-jasin

If what it says is true, then RM may have perpetual "potential" to go further...

Remember when RM hit RM3.80 many people think it would be the limit ? They waited and thinking "everything will be fine" but eventually RM fell further.

Same scenario again now. Is RM4.40 now be the new limit and "everything will be fine" again ?

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