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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Oct 14 2015, 12:55 PM

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whatever, better not long AUD.

maybe int rate cut coming, again...?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/australian-...e-cut-bets.html

crude fall = all commodities fall = commodity exports currencies fall.

this has been seen again and again - rm, idr, aud, nzd, ruble...

so, just look at crude, that's all. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 14 2015, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 14 2015, 02:42 PM)
Aud not good
Sgd not good due to easing (but it actually rises significant right now)
Yuan not good (as may devalue)
Yen Euro not good due to QE.
Emerging currencies not good due to commodities slump.
Gold also not good
Equities market also not good.

Everything not good then.  laugh.gif
*
good point!

at this time, it's more about how to lose less and not lose more! laugh.gif

QUOTE
Total global wealth decreased by $12.4 trillion to $250.1 trillion, with the strength of the U.S. dollar weighing on the overall global wealth picture, as when valued in U.S. dollars, net worth fell in every region except China and North America.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/global-weal...nce-lehman.html

AVFAN
post Oct 14 2015, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Oct 14 2015, 02:48 PM)
BTW, do you think Malaysia has the potential to become bankrupt like Greece if 1MDB issues proves that the governement is not able to pay back its debt, unrecoverable losses, etc?

Will it buy time? Default? Worst case scenario for MYR?? Just wondering..
*
will not be like greece.

but can be like brazil - commodities exporting, corruption, budget deficits.

do google to get updates; latest on brazil:

QUOTE
One year after a massive corruption scandal broke out at the state-run oil company and four months after Brazil officially entered recession, the financial indicators are grim across the board. The real has fallen more than any other major currency in the world this year; annual inflation has soared to almost 10 percent; the budget deficit has swelled to the widest in at least two decades; and the government’s credit rating was cut to junk by Standard & Poor’s. Last week, analysts at Itau Unibanco Holding predicted the economy will shrink 3 percent this year and unemployment will top 10 percent by 2016.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...wiping-out-jobs



AVFAN
post Oct 14 2015, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 14 2015, 06:15 PM)
Can solve the lose-lose situation. In order not to lose now, he has to pick a position and gamble. No position now is not a strategy. Volatile market actually means opportunity  thumbup.gif
*
i think u, i and many others know - if do nothing and keep blood sweat n tears savings in rm/bursa/fd/local unit trusts, the result is simply joining the masses of the world, lost significant real net worth.
yes, must take a position! rclxms.gif
QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 14 2015, 06:11 PM)
AUD is good when China recovers
SGD is good because they have inflation to worry if SGD too low, so they can't devalue too low
*
overall, my bet is still with #1 usd, #2, sgd.
aud - i will dive in when china shows a rebound - particularly BHP stock now at 5 yr low.
right now, all indicators still showing decline, weakness - no rush.

小心驶得万年船 - carefully sail 10,000 years. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 14 2015, 06:29 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 15 2015, 05:53 PM

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interesting and unusual day today for fx.

asian, european bourses and emerging market currencies rallied today, throwing out fed rate hike possibility!

but... us crude inventories swelled, price just went below 46.

weak usd yet crude price falling.

something to watch in the next few days...
AVFAN
post Oct 16 2015, 09:57 AM

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msia alongside brazil...

QUOTE
A Case of Brazil Blight? Scandal-Hit Malaysia Risks Lost Decade
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...sks-lost-decade

Brazil's Next Big Crisis Is Scaring Bankers and Wiping Out Jobs
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...wiping-out-jobs


AVFAN
post Oct 16 2015, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 16 2015, 10:30 AM)
everyone is now eyeing epf money. sweat.gif

There are a couple of “bright lights,” said Capstick, citing the winding down of 1MDB, the currency-swap lines Malaysia has with China and the “sizable” pension funds that the nation could fall back on. The Employees Provident Fund had 667 billion ringgit of assets as of June 2015, according to the state-controlled entity’s website.
AVFAN
post Oct 16 2015, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Oct 16 2015, 10:51 AM)
This is a very depressing read.
*
it is. most foreign reports are such now.

can't blame them for this attitude “The political problems will just be a constant.”

only local reports are rosy. think plenty coming with budget on oct 23.

take yr position! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 17 2015, 10:19 AM

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it seems everyone's watching china - the wild card that will move equities, commodities and currencies in the coming weeks.

QUOTE
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/16/6-reasons-w...nd-bearish.html
A perennial and the number one topic in every client meeting, according to the Swiss bank. As well as concerns over a potential property bubble and weakening growth, clients focused on the yuan.
"Many clients continue to believe that the currency is the critical barometer. If the RMB is allowed to fall again, many believe it would be highly deflationary and a sign that the leadership has lost control. Most clients believe that the currency will eventually fall significantly", the bank said.


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/16/china-data-...ommodities.html
China could be what determines whether the bottom is in for commodities
Copper wire. The commodity was trading at five-year lows Wednesday.
The painful sell-off in some commodities may be over for now, but a blast of major Chinese economic reports early next week could put any recent rallies to the test.
While many Wall Street strategists see signs of a broader bottoming process, there is no consensus that the commodities crash is actually over, particularly for copper.


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 17 2015, 10:20 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 18 2015, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 17 2015, 06:20 PM)
I think people are reactive to crisis, rather than proactive. Now that RM shows some strength, they thought the crisis is over and problem solved  tongue.gif
*
it's always calm before the storm. tongue.gif

i am watching china's data for next few weeks/months. i see that driving commodities prices and hence currencies.

even fed/usd appears mindful of that. tongue.gif

QUOTE(langstrasse @ Oct 17 2015, 07:58 PM)
It's interesting how people are getting used to the 4 to dollar level, so quickly.
*
interesting observation. is it true? hmm.gif

my take is 1/3 sees no effect/dun care, 1/3 feel the pain but accept quietly and 1/3 agonizing/struggling.

imported inflation has only just started; by early next year, that may change dramatically.

the bad news is even if rm goes <4.0 later next year, i can't see how consumer prices will come down - they never do.
AVFAN
post Oct 18 2015, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 18 2015, 04:39 PM)
Official inflation rate will be below 4%.
*
u ought to be more optimistic.

it will be <3.5%. aug 2015 was only 3.1%.

official inflation is very hard to rise in msia; has never crossed 3.5% since 2009.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/inflation-cpi

but we know urban-suburban reality is 2.5 times that, i.e. 8-9%.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 18 2015, 07:44 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 18 2015, 08:34 PM

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QUOTE(langstrasse @ Oct 18 2015, 08:18 PM)
It really does seem like the proverbial frog in hot water, people (especially Malaysians) complain about a lot of things at first but eventually they just get used to it.
*
well, frogs have been around for a long time and are still around.

and hot water is easy to make. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 19 2015, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Oct 19 2015, 02:35 PM)
USD/MYR seems to be turning up today. 4.22
*
crude stable, china data not all bad, most asian currencies gained/flat vs weak usd today... but rm fell almost 1%.

most likely reason is market jittery what bijan budget on fri, how to deal with much less oil money and more br1m... widen deficit further, tax more, borrow more? there is good reason to think the rm will weaken further for now.

QUOTE
Amid falling oil revenue, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak said the upcoming budget will be among the most difficult he has ever tabled.
He said the government received RM26 billion in dividends from Petronas this year, but the national oil company is seeking to slash that amount to a mere RM9 billion next year.
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/316144#ixzz3ouBJYkk4

Ringgit falls as Malaysia faces oil revenue pressures in budget - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.yYN8eEX3.dpuf

AVFAN
post Oct 20 2015, 01:43 AM

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.. soft china data
.. saudi oil stocks building up
.. iran deal in progress
.. crude at 46
.. bijan budget
.. bijan motion

what do u think rm will be tmrw and friday? sweat.gif
AVFAN
post Oct 20 2015, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 20 2015, 08:36 AM)
Heading towards 4.30 mark
Btw, BNM will release reserves @ 15/10 on 22/10
*
think will hit 4.30 by tmrw.

fri budget, next week... good possibility >4.40.

bigger chance if crude gets to 45.

reserves won't change much, little impact...
AVFAN
post Oct 20 2015, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 20 2015, 04:50 PM)
19 Oct 2015 08:40 UTC - 20 Oct 2015 08:46 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.27298 low:4.20850 high:4.29478

Almost hit 4.30
*
it stayed better than 4.25 for much of the day becos crude recovered from <46 to 46.70 due to short covering on nov options expiring today.

can see today end of day, crude's falling again, rm returned to 4.27.

if crude goes below 46 and i expect it to, tmrw should see rm at >4.30.


AVFAN
post Oct 21 2015, 10:52 AM

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the minute this news came out, rm went from 4.285 to 4.295.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/20/oil-falls-a...ude-stocks.html


come fri, if bijan budget is not a rm recovery but rm destructive one, it'll dive gain...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 21 2015, 10:53 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 22 2015, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(Roger89 @ Oct 21 2015, 10:38 PM)
Expect big moves (more volatile) in future. That's what i think.
*
the 3 big movers:

1. crude price - low, now at 45.40
2. budget 2016 - d-day fri tmrw, see if it's rm helping or rm busting
3. bijan chronicles - see if there'll be arrests soon, incl m

rm now 4.296.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 22 2015, 11:19 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 22 2015, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 22 2015, 11:25 AM)
I think now market waiting for fresh leads. Many people wait and see. Including myself  tongue.gif

Read somewhere budget 2016 going to increase tax ? (cannot find where I read already...)
*
i prepared to long usd on 3 days ago at 4.20 but did not in the end. biggrin.gif

will watch very closely on fri-mon.

tax... it will surely be a combination of more tax and more borrowings; if no tax incr, budget deficit will swell.



external leads... crude seems to get strong support at 45; china appears stable; usd inching up as euro may get qe again... or will it?
AVFAN
post Oct 22 2015, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2015, 11:42 AM)
GST collection highly may exceed expectation, so it is the one can fill up the gap.

Mind that when inflation hit, aka price of goods rise, GST collection may rise as well as GST is taxed based on the retail price.

So GST is the one can plug the deficit, as long as there is prudent move in term of operation expenses.
*
that will work very well if gdp grows fast, disposable income rising > inflation.

if consumers dun hv the rm, they will cut back spending.

higher gst per item but over lower volume - no use.

raise gst %, even less volume.

and i think it is becoming very evident:

QUOTE
The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to an all-time low of 70.2 points in the third quarter of the year, as measured by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER).

Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/316683#ixzz3pGrOIohr


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