opps... i think i got it wrong...

i think it means the "reserves" are actually in rm. so when the rate goes unfavorable, the rm becomes less in usd.

but this is strange... if i buy 1kusd at 3.5, my reserves is 1kusd and when rate goes to 4., i still hv 1kusd and gets bloated to 4k rm, right?

we are missing something here...

"fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes?

ok, ok...

forget the rm.

usd reserves is down 1.4b, that's it.

must be...

so expensive... all importers pulled brakes!

hope no shortage of any goods...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 7 2015, 09:47 PM

u hv said this a million times.

u r becoming exceedingly annoying.

i did check at one stage.

yes, rm appr was like 3% vs rupiah's 2.5%, brazil's 1.6%.

there is so much "black magic" surrounding the rm.

anything can happen.


crude softening last night due to us inventory build.

today will probably see usd strengthening.

bnm official 5pm closing today:

usd 4.2330/4.2380
sgd 2.9949/3.0001
gbp 6.4866/6.4960
aud 3.0359/3.0412
http://www.bnm.gov.my/?tpl=exchangerates

for easy reference/memory and smooth biz/personal biz, let's hope it will stick around:

4.25-3.0-6.5-3.0.

now, let's get on with biz!

this is the trillion $ question, isn't it?

the situation is very fluid and changes every day or week.

weak or strong usd will continue to drive direction of commodity, stocks and bond prices as it has for the past 1 yr.

imo, futile to try to read the fed, can only not fight it.

good if u r very convinced which way to go.

i am not so sure which way it will go from here...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 10:56 AM

zeti criticized by financial magazine...

i have always held the view sg's mas monetary policy as highly prudent and do what's best for the sgd for the total economy.

i dun see major movements with sgd coming, esp with a wekening usd now.

i am neutral at this time - assuming u are diversified usd-sgd-rm, hold what u have - movements will cancel out among themselves overall.

if 100% in one currency, i do not have a view at this time what to do, if anything.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 11:35 AM

Heads I win, tails u lose.

Ain't life a bitch!

The only way to deal with it is increasing income all the time.

Which takes us back to how well are our jobs paying us.

Which is why admist all that fin mkts volatility, we must not lose sight of what is really going on to help us become "high income"... big investments to export more, more and better paying jobs, etc. Not much going on, is there?

the funny thing is when oil price was falling, our ministers say we are net oil importer, rm should not fall.

now oil prcie going up a bit, will they say rm should not rise so fast?

i think u r reading too much into that.

the worst hit em currencies are all recovering from a (maybe temp?) rise in commodity prices esp oil as a result of fed's "no hike for now" posturing and improved oil price outlook.

if u check rupiah and rouble, they gained against rm in this rebound.

which means the worst hit ones are recovering most.

rm is recovering in line with the just how bad it was hit in the last year.

of course, good gain vs usd, sgd, aud, euro, gbp, thb...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 04:23 PM

it's all about crude price, at least for yesterday and today.

crude touched usd50.50 at 12.40pm, now 49.90.

good correlation at this time.

i think we are all saying the same thing.

i hv tracked crude price vs rm for months.

1. net oil importer or exporter, msia is surely net exporter of fuels - crude and gas where gomen derives money to fund the budget and whatever else they do. crude price is in usd; the two are inversely correlated. so, if usd weakens, oil price will rise, pushing rm up.

2. the politics obviously has a big hand in it, but only if new. once it is factored in, it stays there until somethign new comes out. imo, all of 1mdb-bijan chronicles are already factored in and market does not seem to be saying that is going away anytime soon. there may be some speculative moves but insignificant, i think.

3. 1 and 2 are overwhelming. trade surplus, tourists, intermittent incr in palm oil, condom and glove exports have miniscule impact.

at this time, 1 is the prime driver. as i write, crude went from 49.90 to 50.18, rm goes from 4.17 to 4.13.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 05:05 PM

of course, the markets being forward looking.

gas prices tend to lag crude by 6 months; msia is a gas large exporter - the market knows.



really, we are saying... people will bet on anything that moves.

see?

crude 50.80, rm 4.11.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR

if crude hits 52 by end of trade tonight, rm may get to 4.0 on monday.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 9 2015, 06:39 PM

yes, do keep in rm, usd, sgd, euro, gbp, aud,.

heck, even rupiah and roubles!

seriously, no nation can escape global forces.

be international or we all go to rot.

no, i stay put, do nothing new.

i like to think i am quite balanced ok for now.

usd lose 5%... sgd reits gain 6%.

and i hv rm too!

fed hike or not hike... looking very much like earliest to happen is dec 2015, if at all.

for now, crude price's driving em currencies.

crude hanging on to 49-50, appears to be in a precarious position, neither clearly going up nor clearly going down.

and there is budget to watch on oct 23.

against a backdrop of bijan chronicles still much in play

with all that, any argument for rm appr or depr or flat or simply nut case is valid with some support.

whatever, i think it is best not to take excessive risk, stay balanced.

30% it will be tabled.
30% chance it will pass.

so, i m not betting on it.

i think so too.

fed's minutes were the key driver, driving up crude (up 10%) and commodities prices up since - this is major impact, i'll say.

it is possible tppa news had a hand in moving commodity prices but since crude as the big brother of commodities is very global, i would think at best tppa effect is minor.

indon not in tppa but rupiah actually gained more than the rm in the last week. so did rouble.

mexico and chile gained less, peru even less - all three in tppa.


tppa is agreed but not signed, will be much later.

fed is now expected to "do nothing" for now.

i will rather watch crude price as a guide where the usd/rm will go.