Time to long USD

Looks like SGD is dropping like mad. Now RM 3.02 jek.

No major surprises in the budget to prop up RM. They still spend like before. No major effort to save RM demonstrated.

Don't need to wait for Monday You get the 3

The feeling I get is they still are complacent with the situation and do not see the urgency. They even sound proud of the GST covering the short fall with no slight gratefulness to the GST payers Ie. They claimed credit for implementing GST instead of thanking the whole nation for paying GST and contributing to nation building

The only word I can think of is "merciless"

I wrote the above this evening. China cutting rates really threw a spanner into the works. Look at the sharp spike-up when the rate cut was announced this evening. But..........

...the RM HAS strengthened back against the SGD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDMYR%...ing":true}

Jibby has a stronger influence on the RM than the PBOC. But for how long ???

see, the thing is like i hv said a few times - this gomen does not hvae the word austerity in the dictionary. only spend!


anyway, we need to wait for reaction to this robinhood cum spendthrift budget plus china's rate cut.

one thing for sure, oil will likely drop further due to china rate cut and coming more euro qe - both driving up the $. no chance for oil/commodity recovery for now.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 23 2015, 09:21 PM

Well, at least they did not raise the GST.

think gst need not be in budget, can raise anytime outside budget after 9 or 12 months... can't remember..

Why would oil drop when the central banks provide more stimuli ? Or are you saying that stimuli are given because of poor economic activities, which in turn cause less demand for oil, subsequently causing oil price to drop ?

Well certainly they can raise anytime they wished to in future,... but if they are really cruel, then I would believe raising GST during a budget ann't would be a very good time to announce this.

Demand is poor from China

crude denominated in usd.
it is produced gobally.
if other major currencies devalue, usd must go up.
then crude must go down.

read it up.

OKay,... demand poor from China, that's why the PBOC needs to initiate more stimulus. Demand poor means oil price can't go up. Hence, it's oil price drops causing the PBOC to cut rates.

Or you could look at it this way, China decreases rate could be a way to deter the US from raising it's rates. We know China owns majority of US debts. So in a way, they would want to control US.

So you are saying PBOC cuts rate -> RMB drops -> other currencies follow and drop -> USD rises -> crude drops because of the inverse relationship.

The last two loops in the chain is known by everybody. But the rise in USD is not because of its own strength, it is because of the other currencies weakening. The inverse relationship between USD rising and crude dropping only comes into play if USD strengthens because of its own qualities.

HOw many currencies will follow the RMB and drop at the same time ?

AND,... don't forget, China is now coming out very strongly with their offshore funds. Their offshore RMB could strengthen because of the world markets strengthening due to this stimulus.

It's pretty confusing now.

Read-up on the offshore funds of China.

Crude drop 0.82 or 1.81% to 44.56 now

InB4 unker will wake up and say what he always say

yea, their goal is 10% gst.

Could be part of the oscillating trend in the mid-forties seen recently. If it's really because of the China rate cut news, then there would be a spike seen. Look at the charts of SGDMYR and AUDJPY,... the upward and downward spikes respectively are very clear if you referenced the spikes against the time axis.

That why I said I'm still relieved that they have not raised the GST at this ann't. The longer they hold back, the more tax-collection they will stand to lose out on.