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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Oct 7 2015, 08:20 AM

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RM appreciated quite a bit !

USD 4.32112
EUR 4.87169
GBP 6.58156
SGD 3.0385

Exception of AUD still at 3.09392

USD sub 4.3000 coming. Window of opportunity is nearer !
Showtime747
post Oct 7 2015, 02:21 PM

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Wah ! RM is having a rare day of appreciation in a long long time

USD 4.25973
EUR 4.79746
GBP 6.49492
SGD 3.00209
AUD 3.06125

SGD <3.00 soon ! USD below 4.30

What you guys waiting for. Opportunity will not last rclxms.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 7 2015, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 7 2015, 02:26 PM)
4.0? Not likely.
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Ya, I think <4.300 is already very good price. Not going to fall further to 4.00 level in short term I think. It will be back up very very soon in a matter of days. Have to be decisive and act quick now

Just my guess tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 7 2015, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 7 2015, 09:09 PM)
opps... i think i got it wrong...

i think it means the "reserves" are actually in rm. so when the rate goes unfavorable, the rm becomes less in usd.

but this is strange... if i buy 1kusd at 3.5, my reserves is 1kusd and when rate goes to 4., i still hv 1kusd and gets bloated to 4k rm, right?

we are missing something here...

"fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes? hmm.gif
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The US$ reserve is the base point.

The reserve has decreased from US$94.7b in Aug to US$93.3b in Sept (down US$1.4b)

BNM has been using forex rate of around 3.77xx previously --> 94.7 x 3.777 = RM357.7b

Now BNM revised the forex rate to 4.449 --> 93.3 x 4.449 = RM415.1b

So, in effect, our reserve decreased by US$1.4b

There is a download of all the months' reserve in this link since year 2010 . Go to "International Reserves" line somewhere in 3/4 page and click the "download"

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic_nsdp&uc=2
Showtime747
post Oct 7 2015, 11:39 PM

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Is the following rumour sounds legit ?

QUOTE
Insider of the highest sources claims the political debacles encountered recently will be solved in the coming few weeks with concrete master plan set out that all assets of the Company have been ear picked for sale and negotiation with concrete purchasers are in very advance stages. Total proceeds from the sale will be more than enough to settle all outstanding debts, giving some sizeable profits, and thus eliminates the threat to the banking system and the currency. The most shocking breakthrough is a succession plan has already been agreed upon at the highest level by all interested parties and a smooth transition will be carried out to minimise damages to the image of the organisation, thus paving the way for next general election in order to consolidate the position of the new team. 


Insiders with information rushing to convert their forex back to RM knowing the above news would be explosive ?

wink.gif blink.gif ohmy.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 8 2015, 06:33 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 7 2015, 11:46 PM)
Sounds logic
Need to trade cautiously as market is flush with news to navigate the price movement  sweat.gif
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That's why forex is very high risk. And reacts to the slightest news or rumours sweat.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 8 2015, 06:36 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 8 2015, 01:03 AM)
Showtime747,

Let's ASSUME all of the above is true.  How will that solve any of the Malaysia fundamental economic problem??

It will not.  It will still be MAFIC.  In fact, it will make sure that no economy reform will happen since BN will still be in power.

<<Insiders with information rushing to convert their forex back to RM knowing the above news would be explosive ?>>

Really?? RM strengthening will give people opportunity to move more money out.

Dreamer
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Noted.

Next time after I wrote something remotely related to RM "good news", I will add in a P/s to write "InB4 unker dreamer will say.....{insert the usual comment}...."
Showtime747
post Oct 8 2015, 06:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 8 2015, 01:54 AM)
u hv said this a million times.

u r becoming exceedingly annoying. mad.gif
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I have suggested him to put his argument in signature so that he doesn't need to physically type them out again tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 8 2015, 06:49 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Oct 8 2015, 02:45 AM)
If this factor is taken off, MYR should be at par with Thai Baht ie MYR/Baht=10 or USD/MYR=3.60. tongue.gif

Also hope that a unity govt will take over and all citizens will work to strengthen the economy.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...oint/?style=biz

Tens of billions of USD going to convert back to MYR?
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If the rumour is true, then very possible.

We had had oil money rebounded back to the US$60s a few months back, but no such rebound to RM at that time. Yesterday only a few dollars and the effect is so great ?

We had had our reserves numbers improve in Aug, but no such rebound to RM. Yesterday reserve reduced announcement is actually bad news, and yet RM turned for the better despite the bad news.

TPPA ? We don't even know what are they in relation to Malaysia. And people relates it to the RM rebound rclxub.gif

It was a mystical day yesterday. Something must have happened. Could be the rumour, could be not but something else. But we will see if RM rebound will fissile out this 2 days. If RM continues to rebound, then something is cooking....
Showtime747
post Oct 8 2015, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Oct 8 2015, 09:01 AM)
I doubt the rumour is the cause. The Ringgit is not the only emerging market currency that appreciated yesterday.
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Ya although RM is the star of the day, just take the rumour as rumour. Many speculators die in the hands of rumour

I think the things mentioned in the rumour is the wish of the people and businesses wanted to see. It would be good if the rumour becomes true. That would solve a lot of problem

While those who can, should diversify anyhow. Just to buy "insurance" and play safe.
Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 9 2015, 07:57 AM)
USD may continue to trend down for near term, as Fed minutes last night disclosed that rate hike may not as soon as previously taught.

The moment many and more people bullish about USD, suddenly it turns due to Fed.

Sgd is going up against USD as well.
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Yea, a piece of news will cause a 180 degree u turn. That is the fun part about commodity

Then a few days later another news will switch the direction 180 again.

And then yet another piece of news appears...... The cycle goes on and on....tongue.gif

Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 11:55 AM

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I agree with Hansel. It is a good time to buy now. Buy bit by bit if you are a prudent person.

While we concentrate on the USD now, let's don't forget the problem we have in malaysia is never solved. If the rumour in 2-3 pages back is true, then I agree RM will appreciate back to sub-4.00 level. But I don't quite buy that would happen in short term

A few days later when another piece of news from USA suddenly appears, then everything change again tongue.gif


Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Oct 7 2015, 11:39 PM)
Is the following rumour sounds legit ?
Insiders with information rushing to convert their forex back to RM knowing the above news would be explosive ?

QUOTE
Insider of the highest sources claims the political debacles encountered recently will be solved in the coming few weeks with concrete master plan set out that all assets of the Company have been ear picked for sale and negotiation with concrete purchasers are in very advance stages. Total proceeds from the sale will be more than enough to settle all outstanding debts, giving some sizeable profits, and thus eliminates the threat to the banking system and the currency. The most shocking breakthrough is a succession plan has already been agreed upon at the highest level by all interested parties and a smooth transition will be carried out to minimise damages to the image of the organisation, thus paving the way for next general election in order to consolidate the position of the new team.



wink.gif blink.gif ohmy.gif
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RM continue to strengthen .....something in the news coming out these few day/week ?
Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 9 2015, 04:20 PM)
i think u r reading too much into that.

the worst hit em currencies are all recovering from a (maybe temp?) rise in commodity prices esp oil as a result of fed's "no hike for now" posturing and improved oil price outlook.

if u check rupiah and rouble, they gained against rm in this rebound.

which means the worst hit ones are recovering most.

rm is recovering in line with the just how bad it was hit in the last year.

of course, good gain vs usd, sgd, aud, euro, gbp, thb...
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At the height of the scandal (1st half of the year), even oil price rise from 40+ to 60+, there is not much effect on RM because of the "Trust Deficit" (we all seemed to forget this term liao)

Oil price Jan 2015 $40+, RM3.56
Oil price May 2015 $60+, RM3.60 (+1%)

Now oil price increased just $5 and RM the appreciation is +8%.

Not saying that the rumour is true. Just that the huge volatility is not just about data or fundamental but many non-financial related factors
Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 9 2015, 07:02 PM)
BNM revokes permission, wants 1MDB to repatriate US$1.83b back to Malaysia
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2015/10/bnm-rev...b-back-malaysia

Further upside for MYR?
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US$1.83b to be converted to RM (assuming the money is still in 1MDB account). So RM will be going up again !

QUOTE
It also issued a directive under the Financial Services Act 2013 to 1MDB to return the US$1.83bil to Malaysia and submit a plan to the Bank for this purpose.

Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 9 2015, 07:29 PM)
But if 1MBDB come put with excuse, talk and talk, RM will tank again, no action.
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Maybe they have already planned, and now implementing the plots according to the rumour tongue.gif

All about dollar and cent. If RM can appreciate 25% back to previous level, the US$11b will be worth RM2.75b extra to them
Showtime747
post Oct 9 2015, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 9 2015, 07:39 PM)
You meant depreciate as when RM depreciate against the USD, 1 USD can change for more RM.
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I was being sarcastic, bro tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 10 2015, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Oct 10 2015, 06:38 AM)
What is the direction of USD/MYR next week?
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Everything went well and can see RM up trend, we can make bets with some confidence, but this bugger throwing in a spanner doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...full-employment
Showtime747
post Oct 10 2015, 08:23 AM

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And there is alternative view within the FED

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-stays-on-track
Showtime747
post Oct 10 2015, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 10 2015, 10:32 PM)
so what your TP on USD/MYR now?  icon_question.gif
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Unker is a man of words brows.gif he will stick to what he said. See my signature

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