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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 07:50 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 06:09 AM)
Everyday is history in the making. Similar event occur regularly but in different form.
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The difference between a successful investor and a fail one is the ability to identify opportunities and be ready to seize them. Of course some elements of risk is involved. No free lunch.

I experienced the AFC "the 1st RM depreciation disaster" in 97/98. I did not take up the opportunities then, solely because of my business which was unprepared and affected badly. I was caught by surprise. This round, I was much better prepared.

Whatever is happening to our RM and other currencies as we speak now is something huge and a phenomenon. If you think this 20 years once event is just a regular event, you are destined to be ordinary.

I expect the whole episode of this significant historical event to continue. The apex is yet to unfold. More to come.

In year 2035, When your children grow up and ask you what happened to the "2nd RM depreciation disaster" 20 years ago ? You can merely tell them to google and read in Wikipedia. For those who seized the opportunities, they can tell their real life experience and how they make (or lose) money. Much more interesting stories and real life experience which you could pass on to your children for learning

If you have not done something, or still cannot see the opportunities, you should start looking
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 12:21 PM)
You seen to have forgotten that you poked fun of; the world is our oyster, there are many investment opportunity available, and the world is greater than the kampung.

Even until recently, some still poke fun on u.s stocks while neglecting value in myr. Those riding on bull run is indifferent from flippers buying kv property at near peak.
All your comments since we talked have been general and pure rhetoric. Those "the world is our oyster", "there are many opportunities outside", "you can bring a person out of kampung, you can't bring the kampung out from a person". But nothing concrete was ever suggested by you. At least unker dreamer gave something concrete and started a few threads on what to invest and on financial management. You ? No specific suggestion at all.

And all I can remember about you is a 马后炮. Comment only on hindsight. Your Shanghai crash, gold, etc. Only bring up when it has happened and claim "I told you so" tongue.gif


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 12:21 PM)
One should have invested in foreign assets before myr depreciation not after. Opportunity favour the prepared mind.
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Correction. you should invest before, DURING and AFTER any significant events. Also why limit yourself to only "assets" ? There are many structured products and derivatives for us to choose.

Falling market is not always bad. Depends on which side you invest. Opportunities are aplenty especially in volatile market. RM fallen too far behind is not the obstacle. The obstacle is you can't identify the opportunities.

I have asked you before and you never give any answers. And I wish to ask another time. Since you still view RM will depreciate further, what is your investment strategies for current scenario of RM/Forex you would suggest for everyone's consideration ? Would like to learn from you thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 3 2015, 12:32 PM)
rclxms.gif this is my view too.

what we are seeing is a major event but is not over but may become more turbulent.

external:

.. commodities prices not going to recover so soon in a supercycle
.. biggest economies usa and china are both having growth issues, no other economy can help

internal:

.. debt levels will not reduce but will incr over time
.. local politics will continue to completely drive economics

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May I add for internal issue

.. inflation is going to hit badly due to RM depreciation
.. Unemployment will go up
.. recession is coming too
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 3 2015, 01:33 PM)
Inflation going up = rise in interest rates? drool.gif
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May be it would, maybe it would not. Rising interest rate will only further dampen the economy. But it could also arrest the RM depreciation issue. I think it is only 50-50
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Oct 3 2015, 01:36 PM)
bolehland is doomed cry.gif

on serious note. I don't think BNM would raise rate tis moment
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Nothing will go up forever. Boom and recession are part of economic cycle. It will come down and then shoot back up to even higher level in the future. Almost every country experience the same thing tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 01:49 PM)
Where and what to invest currently is depending on what is his source of income (e.g. myr, us$), where is his current assets (e.g kl stock, etc),  risks appetite, objective whether to preserve his wealth or making $, etc. From what I observed so far, my strategy is incompatible with yours, will end up with trails of argument.

On my take on gold price, may be you like to read a few years old gold thread and you will find similarity with kv property thread.
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See....as usual, nothing concrete will you suggest. Only giving very broad comments with a lot of open ended parameters. But you talk like an expert/consultant. Sounds like very correct and know a lot of things, but in the end nothing useful to put into real life application.

In another word : Bull Shit tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 02:32 PM)
So your investment strategy suit all?

You are classic, anyone disagreed with you is bs; may be you should look into mirror first.
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Don't talk so much. Just show us what YOU will invest and how you do it. Why you think your way works and the expected returns in a given time frame. In other words - don't bull shit us further.

I have to apologize to unker dreamer. Because I went and compare him to you. I hope he won't feel insulted by comparing some bullshit people to him tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 03:41 PM)
My investment strategy is obviously different from yours, almost always a step ahead of you e.g kv property and divesting MYR assets.

If those have investable assets is not in MYR e.g in USD, EUR, GBP, RMB, SGD, JPY, etc, need not do anything for the moment but to look for cherry to pick.

It is pretty obvious, your overall portfolio has depreciated with MYR.
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Still bull shitting and never give anything concrete and useful despite given so many chances. Proved that you got nothing good to offer at all doh.gif doh.gif






Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 3 2015, 06:14 PM)
courtesy of showtime747's post on 23 aug 2015, i repost figures for 24 aug 2014 to 23 aug 2015, i.e. 1 yr.

i hv added by the side the approx 1 month changes - sep 3 to oct 2:

source:http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MYR&to=RUB&view=1M

MYR/USD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/HKD -31.8% -3.9%
MYR/RMB -26.9% -4.0%
MYR/GBP -25.1% -3.4%
MYR/TWD -21.0% -3.3%
MYR/THB -18.1% -2.5%
MYR/SGD -17.1% -3.2%
MYR/JPY -12.3% -4.3%
MYR/KRW -12.5% -5.6%
MYR/Eur -12.6% -3.9%
MYR/IDR -10.7% -0.2%
MYR/CAD -10.3% -4.7%
MYR/NZD -4.5% -5.5%
MYR/AUD -3.6% -4.7%
MYR/RUB +45.1% -6.1%
if one was reading those data on 23 aug and decided to do some fx thing, just about any major currency will have gained in just one month, except for indon rupiah.

rm continues to be the weakest currency on that list of most popular currencies for msian biz or personal activities.

clearly, the statement, "it's the strong usd, other currencies also very weak" does not hold water for this list.

here we are, data for you, up to you how to interpret, do something or do nothing.

i'll add full month oct changes in early nov.
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thumbup.gif

Numbers speak. It is up to individual to act on the opportunities.

3%-6% a month is a very high return, but risk is also high. Only for the bold tongue.gif

Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 3 2015, 08:08 PM)
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...oint/?style=biz

<< No major sell-off

There were reports of a major sell-off taking place on Wednesday, as RM11bil worth of Government papers came up for renewal. But it did not happen.>>

Folks,

As per my understanding, that 11 billions MGS were taken up by local funds.  Not the foreigner.  Does anyone has information on that??

Thanks.

Dreamer
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Unker,

On Wednesday, RM unusually appreciated to 4.39xx. It could be some inflow of funds for this take up. Maybe there are still some foreign funds subscribing to the MGS at such attractive yield of ~4.5%. Other possible reasons are illustrated in the article. No mention of local funds like EPF/PNB

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Oct 3 2015, 09:18 PM
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Oct 3 2015, 08:37 PM)
Are you going to buy more USD or myr on Monday?
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Why would you care ? Especially when you never share what you would do ?

If you are trolling, please head back to kopitiam this way ---> https://forum.lowyat.net/Kopitiam
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Oct 3 2015, 09:23 PM)
Do you remember what happened when the currency started appreciating?
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What do you mean ?
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Oct 3 2015, 09:33 PM)
You were old enough after the peg was lifted to see the effect on local business? in fact what happened to companies that did business in foreign currencies when the peg was implemented?
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Looks like another troll to me tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Oct 3 2015, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Oct 3 2015, 10:44 PM)
Showtime747,

On Wednesday aka 09/30, USA government was on the threat of being shut down due to budget fight.  So, USD went down against all currencies.  It is probably unrelated to MGS.

Dreamer
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Could be also
Showtime747
post Oct 4 2015, 09:02 AM

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USD to trend down ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ans-weak-dollar
Showtime747
post Oct 4 2015, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 4 2015, 11:23 AM)
with latest dev, chances are usd will trend down until there is more news.

i take cue from statement below - euro and yen (and pound and swiss franc) will gain.

but rm, rmb, rupiah... will likely be flat until bigger news emerges.

i will not do rm->usd now but will not do usd->rm either.

rm->sgd still can, i think. i dun see mas doing much easing. tongue.gif

"Emerging markets are going nowhere and Europe and Japan are appreciating."
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Agree with you. USD doesn't look as good as a few weeks ago. Looks like no more steam

Whereas USD/RM tight range bound is good. I like it and have been betting this way since 2-3 weeks ago thumbup.gif


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post Oct 4 2015, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 10:48 PM)
A sincere advice, never try to "time the market" when investing or for the purpose of diversification or whatever.  smile.gif

Often, market could "time" you back.
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Depends on strategy. If for long term investment, don't time the market. Maybe do some DCA over a period of time

If for trading or short time investment, timing is very important. The point of entry and exit determines the profit or loss.

For forex trading, I have not heard of long term investment.
Showtime747
post Oct 4 2015, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 4 2015, 11:10 PM)
For short term trading, best is riding the trend, not time tomorrow or next week will go down/up or not.

Most professional traders and successful traders often using trend/momentum as their best mate/strategy, not timing which day, which week or when, although timing always plays one of most crucial factor.

It is too "difficult" to time tomorrow or next week will go down or up, or to "time" whatever level is peak or bottom.
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There is always a target and timing when doing trading to efficiently utilise the limited resources. The strategies depends on different trader. "Take profit" or "cut loss" is a frequent affairs and they response very quick to news. Like those people in the forex thread or FKLI thread

Heck, there is even "day" trader who go in and out on the same day tongue.gif

Your strategy is more towards long term fundamental investment


Showtime747
post Oct 5 2015, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 5 2015, 03:27 PM)
usd is surely weak today, as expected.

every currency gained over it.

asian top gainers today are rm and nzd, +0.9%.

idr, twd and krw +0.8%.
wanna buy usd now? biggrin.gif
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Your prediction is right thumbup.gif

USD 4.36737. While other currencies remain relatively stable

I think it has further room to go down. If around <4.3000 then good opportunity !
Showtime747
post Oct 6 2015, 10:50 AM

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USD looks weak this week. A piece of bad news last Friday sent it down. Looks like last week's level of ~4.45xx is a very strong resistance. Even 4.40 is hard to break. But at the same time it hardly fall further down below ~4.35xx. Looks like a good support point. Very tight range.

Used to those +1% or 2% a day increase. Now feel boring yawn.gif

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