Unker,

We are talking about MGS, specifically foreigner's holding. And whether Zeti's comment is reasonable that EPF, PNB, Tabung Haji can cover for those maturing MGS.

As always, time frame is important. For MGS, you have to find out how much is the MGS maturing in the next 1 year (ie short term debt)

Then only you can put your comment in perspective. Without a time frame, you can only arrive at an opinion which is too macro and not meaningful

Again, time frame is important

You quoted AVFAN and me, which the topic of discussion is about Zeti's comment. Not about the budget deficit.

I have read what you said above at least 4-5 times in this thread. I am sure most regulars here already taken note of your comment. You are repeating it like an old jumping vinyl records

If you feel it is necessary to repeat, then put your comment in your signature. Don't need to waste your time writing out again and again


Edit : BTW, include also your "no more oil money this time" in your signature

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Sep 30 2015, 10:19 PM

Unker,

Both point 1 and 2 are your old stories going over and over again....Like I said, put those comments in your signature if you feel you must remind everyone. No point argue the same thing over and over again here. We all knew your points. You not "sien", I also "sien liao". I am so "sien" until I ask you for a time frame so the argument will not last forever. But you refused to give and drift to something else


I have no power to stop you. I am just suggesting you an efficient way to remind people the same thing (if you feel you must repeat frequently)

Is there another person keep repeating that "Malaysia will recover just like 97/98 and 2008" ? (excluding the BN macai which I vomit blood talking to him). I don't remember seeing such "Cheung hei" (grumpy) person like you. If you see one, let me know. I will suggest him to set up a signature, just like you



P/S BTW, As alexanderciz suggested, don't forget to include also your "ASx is dummy" comment in your signature too. You have been repeating the same thing too

Could this be a factor ? Government shut down / falling off the cliff coming back

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...utdown-deadline

The next shut off is 11th Dec. Like cherroy said, the U.S. issue will come back. Like a merry go round

Our conventional thinking that cash is useless may not be applicable for the past 1 year.

If we hold forex, our returns could be between 10-20% in RM terms. Could be higher depending on the timing and which currency

While if you invest in stock market, the return is negative this year.

The notion of "inflation is eating you alive" may not be applicable anymore. Cash may be a good option despite earning no interest

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/29/investing/...l?iid=obnetwork

Hooray !! Unker finally gave a prediction with time frame after Ancient-XinG's comment

I shall remember the prediction and see if he is right

At least now we have something measurable. Not just intangible talks.

It is not difficult to make a prediction on RM depreciation complete with time frame.

I think you mean you convert your USD to RM at 4.3750 ? ie USD --> MYR

A sound strategy. Mine is similar to yours. Just that I diversify to USD, SGD and AUD. Also still holding some RM.

And instead of idling in the bank account, in the meantime waiting for stock market to go down further, I play DCI to earn interest. USD/RM pairing is still very attractive giving >20% interest. If you are daring to strike at spot, it is close to 30% !

Ya, if not because you post in the DCI thread of 20% interest 3-4 weeks ago, I didn't bother to ask my bank RM to check the rate. Very sien with those 4-8% interest rates. Suddenly the rates shot up to 20+% and are attractive like 2-3 years ago. Thanks bro

SGD also in the mid-teens now can get around 14%. But pairing between USD/SGD/AUD is still very low in single digit. Pale in comparison to RM, but still very good in view of the near 0% bank interest

How many % untung ?

Wow ! must be earning USD

If RM remains at 4.40, then who is the dummy ?

When the trend is tight range bound, then play DCI. Good interest rate compare to your fund idling. 7 days also got

Unker,

By shifting your "time frame" (ie "from now until end of year" to "from beginning of the year to year end"), you have made the comparison more to your advantage. Glad that you indirectly acknowledge time frame is important to make a comparison (and also prediction) and gives different outcome.

From here, the question will be : why you only compare from beginning of the year ? Why not extend further to year 2008 to now ? Or even from year 2000 to now ?

So, it is obvious that by setting different "time frame", the comparison of deposit rates and forex between USD vs RM will have very different results

That's why I say "time frame" is very important in prediction (and also comparison like yours above).

Unker,

I am surprised by you not making anymore excuses but keep your initial prediction.

Very gentlemanly

Let see how it turns out. And see who is dummy

Not necessary leh, boss.

Job market no good --> economy no good --> US stock market down --> SGX down

Job market no good --> Fed won't raise rates --> USD down --> Other currency including RM up

You could be right

Conclusion : market is unpredictable

i can see you use the word "if" in all you sentences (except the first) Yes, the outlook is so uncertain in this volatile market. Anything could happen.

Your strategy is safe. Good for risk averse investor. The returns will be correspondingly low though. For stock market YTD, it would likely be negative even if you invest in the whole world

In this volatile market I see opportunities. I prefer to identify them and take higher risk. And the rewards is high too.

We are now living and experiencing history in the making. When we look back in 5 years time, what we see today are significant events which happen only once in 20 years. I would rather seize the opportunities during these few months than play it safe.

In total (liquid+non-liquid asset), my estimate is just around 15-20%.

In liquid asset terms, around 80%. I have used whatever I have to take up the risks and opportunities.