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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 01:42 AM

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wti is up 2.5%, brent only 1.2%.

doesn't look like it will hold to me.

we'll see what effect fed statement will have in 20 mins time...
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 01:55 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 01:52 AM)
ya. i am also negative on oil price for short term... hmm.gif
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like gold... too much supply, not much demand... biggrin.gif

maybe now summer, more driving, consumption a bit higher, inventories dropped...?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2015, 01:55 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 02:31 AM)
yellen said all good woh....so how? want new high?  tongue.gif
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no rate hike until dec, i think.

goota do at least one hike, save face. biggrin.gif

yeah, let market may rally a bit more!

oil... looks like it will soften again...
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 03:39 AM)
grabbed more fruit just now. god bless me.  sweat.gif
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bless bless...

no rate hike yet, earnings in usd will be better than if rate hiked. so, rally, i suppose! laugh.gif


oil, energy...
QUOTE
What to do with Energy stocks? Once big Energy ETFs like XLE and XOP broke below the January lows a few weeks ago, the volumes spiked dramatically as investors gave up the ghost.
Predictably, now that we have ONE modest bullish signal, this is reviving talk about a bottom. "Buy when nobody wants them," one energy trader told me this morning.
But nobody think this is going to be the quick rally that was expected in the first quarter. The talk is to buy now, and hold. For a while. Like, a year or two.
That will greatly limit the number of people that will hop on that bandwagon. Too many have seen this movie before.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/29/oil-stocks-...-bandwagon.html

Shell plans for 'prolonged downturn' in oil prices
Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday warned that lower oil prices could continue for several years, and said it was planning for a prolonged downturn.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/shell-says-...d-downturn.html
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2015, 02:04 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 07:49 PM)
thanks for sharing the oily news update... biggrin.gif
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that's my nightly plaything. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 10:08 PM)
red....GDP data out yet?
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First reading on Q2 US GDP at 2.3% vs 2.6% expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/first-readi...-q2-us-gdp.html
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 05:27 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 30 2015, 10:33 PM)
lateest ...

fed governor just said situations are not as well, such as in some euro nations and in china ... sep may not have the rise.....
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sep unlikely. more likely dec.

fed got some bullets, need a couple more.

QUOTE
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy is still growing at a ho-hum pace, but inside the report was a slight pickup in a quarterly inflation that could help the Fed move toward a rate hike.

Second-quarter GDP grew at a 2.3 percent pace, lower than the 2.5 percent or even more expected by economists. But some traders quickly focused on the 1.8 percent quarter-to-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The short end of the Treasury curve sold off with yields on two-year through five-year Treasury notes moving higher.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/gdp-a-dud-b...r-it-needs.html



watch the rm... very tricky for bnm...
QUOTE
Bank Negara grips ringgit tightly as troubles mount
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/306780


AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 02:43 PM)
Saudi said will reduce production as early as Sept.... hmm.gif  biggrin.gif
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that was yesterday. biggrin.gif

today...
QUOTE
Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Friday as concern over global oversupply intensified after the head of oil producers' cartel OPEC indicated there would be no cut-back in production, although a fall in the U.S. dollar put a floor under prices.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/us-crude-sl...nomic-data.html



crude now 47.80, down 1.5%...
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 03:56 PM)
ya....still waiting 44....maybe can breakdown this time.... biggrin.gif
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maybe 42...

QUOTE
Besides the pressure from the Fed’s interest rate outlook, the ringgit and other emerging currencies were vulnerable to further losses if the WTI hit below US$42 a barrel, said Jameel.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ggit/?style=biz

AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 06:57 PM)
latest ...

rumours! ...

ron 97 +0.30
ron 95 +25
diesel +0.30 from 1/8 ...

then i will need to ride my bike again.
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weak ringgit la...

plus need to fund !@#$%...
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 08:54 PM)
latest....

ron 95 n 97 down 10 sen.
ahd be down by more than 20-25 !#+#/#
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ok, false alarm.

now, u can change to a bigger cc car! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 10:36 PM)
aiseh man. with this market sentiment, a local Proton is well suited for me. But targeting at a SUV.

Latest .... Exxon recorded record low profit !!!! (oil price la, what else) wub.gif
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petrol price will be low for a long time... according to this... sweat.gif
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/31/oil-prices-...dman-sachs.html
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 01:10 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 03:56 PM)
ya....still waiting 44....maybe can breakdown this time.... biggrin.gif
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one step closer.

looking to break 47 soon after this news:

Baker Hughes US oil rig count rises by 5
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 1 2015, 03:48 PM)
The US Subprime Problem in The US lasted from 2008 till the tapering started in 2014 - that would be approx 6 yrs. The Oil Crisis started in 2015. So,........ will it end and oil price recovers in 2021 ?
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Goldman in its report, in contrast to the world bank's optimistic forecast, is really saying oil price will be flat for next 5 years given now at used 47 and say low inflation of 1-2% pa.

This can be quite real given shale oil break even of 50 or so. Saudi can go as low as 20 but that will hurt too much, not a real scenario. So, I personally quite agree with goldman's assessment. Remember they were right about GOLD!

Locally, the risk we face is Petronas will pay gomen less and less revenues in the next few years. With jibby holding tight on the steering wheel, question is how fast will gst and other taxes need to rise to fund the usual spending. Doesn't look pretty to me, incl the RM. So the idea of keeping some savings in strong fx to prevent hard earned money from rm erosion is sound. tongue.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(rjb123 @ Aug 1 2015, 06:19 PM)
Agreed, better to save in foreign currency at the moment.

I've only got my FDs left which mature in October ... remaining transfer from FCA to cover monthly expenses / credit card bills  biggrin.gif
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hi bro, no time no hear! biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(rjb123 @ Aug 1 2015, 07:12 PM)
Yeah - very busy with work, no time for anything else! Just logging into IB once a month to do my monthly top up and that's it  biggrin.gif
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once a month... i guess u r not trading then.

i been busy too... with IB! laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 1 2015, 08:55 PM)
wonder hows our local petrol price. shd be below 1.70 i guess.  vmad.gif
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maybe petrol tax now?

never mind, it'll drop 20 sen next month. biggrin.gif

crude now 46.43, next stop 45?
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Aug 3 2015, 06:48 PM)
Sifu ,

any different for this one SGX?

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u mean those etf's compared to same or equivalent in other bourses?

answer = popularity, volume.

bad idea to trade if so blurdy hard to sell.

from the few etfs i know in bursa, waste of time, nobody's interested.

the largest etfs are typically primarily listed in usa - that's where u wanna be. wink.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 3 2015, 09:12 PM)
latest ...
USD = 3.81
citi group eoy target = 3.91
morgan stanley eoy target = 4.00
crude = 46+
palm oil = dropping like stone ....
rm continue on the sliding board ....
die la my job and savings  rclxub.gif
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3.85 already.
bnm throwing in the towel, it seems.

besides falling oil price, watch mgs yields; if n when foreigners lose more confidence and dump the 49% holdings...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/03/malaysias-r...-wild-ride.html
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

newton's 3rd law: jib actions will get a reaction. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 3 2015, 10:47 PM)
jib contributed 5% RM drop so far, later maybe 10%.  vmad.gif
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nothing u can do about that.

except hide.

i mean morph yr rm into something else. laugh.gif

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