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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 12:34 AM)
some starts fishing energy stocks....where will be oil bottom this round?  biggrin.gif
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as oil price continue to fall in the last few days, i notice the oil/energy etf's stopped falling or slowed in the decline.

not much more to fall? or waiting to fall off a cliff? biggrin.gif



crude now bouncing around 44.50 after falling 1.3%.

taking a breather, resume fall to 42 next week? brows.gif






AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 01:27 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 01:19 AM)
exactly, that's the tricky part. Are we about to see a clif or the fall has exhausted? That's the question raised when movement slows. A billion dollar question. laugh.gif

back to broad market. Is it bull or bear it seems now?  hmm.gif
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been falling 22 out of last 30 sessions.

all the data we have at hand does not indicate any significant recovery coming.

may not fall that much that fast anymore, though.

careful, careful... biggrin.gif


AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 10:28 AM

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2 things to watch today...

non-farm payrolls - if too good, sure rate hike in sep!

that will drive market down, crude prices down.



locally, bnm fx reserves report.

rm/usd now 3.9275.

market is expect a huge drop in reserves, it seems.

AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 7 2015, 05:23 PM)
what time is the non farm job report n any idea of the outcome? + or  -? wage rates?
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U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Friday with investors eyeing the latest release of U.S. jobs data, which are due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 07:17 PM

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cnbc has take notice...

QUOTE
UPDATE 1-Malaysia reserves fall below $100 bln as ringgit slumps

"I won't say there is panic now but we are quite close," Amy Yuan Zhuang, a senior analyst at Nordea Markets in Singapore, said prior to announcement of end-July reserves.
"The falling FX reserves could be a sign that BNM is trying to limit the ringgit's losses," she said, adding that meant investors could not exclude the possibility of some form of capital controls being imposed.
In a note prior to the release, Societe Generale said that if reserves fall toward $90 billion, BNM is "likely to 'let it go'."
Societe Generale revised its ringgit forecast for the third quarter to 4.1000 from 3.8000.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/reuters-ame...git-slumps.html
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 08:52 PM

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Futures extend losses amid jobs data


and crude falls again...
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 10:07 PM

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crude now testing 44...
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:04 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 12:44 AM)
whole show is vicious, with high USD, low oils, uncertain local political stories, much lower foreign reserves .... wonder what else will come on next?
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2 things guaranteed - gomem issue more bonds & sukuks, u pay more tax. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:23 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:11 AM)
bloomberg tv earlier at 10pm local time was saying mat salleh are selling and holding lesser and lesser soverign bonds by alot (forgot the actual numbers). wonder who still want to buy our gomen bonds?
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there will be buyers. just have to pay more interest.

mgs yields have been as high as 5% before.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/g...ment-bond-yield

now, it's only 4.18%, can take another 200b debt, no sweat. tongue.gif
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:34 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:28 AM)
ya, its noise to me, but i simply dont have the guts to go forward alone while there is nobody behind me. haha, very scarry one. self belief aside, always better to go with the crowd/trend.
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there is nothing to play with current conditions.

except - short or inverse oil.

it's been almost 4 hrs, the oils bears are still cracking 44.0.

and i am getting sleepy... laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:36 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:31 AM)
200b capability? isnt this amount is over and above our foreign reserve? ( i cant get the just announced foreign reserve figure)
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no la.... <100b usd fx reserves does not stop more borrowing.

debt now is about 700-800b rm now, another 100-200b rm, can.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 8 2015, 01:37 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 02:39 AM)
weak bear?.... hmm.gif
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weak bear again.

losses... 7 days in a row. sweat.gif



crude finally broke 44, at 43.76.

next stop... 43, 42?


AVFAN
post Aug 9 2015, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 8 2015, 10:06 PM)
I'm shooting for $40.. just because it is a round psych number.  tongue.gif

Anyway, I think next week (overall) market may bomb.  The Dow already below that 200ma, next is SP500, followed by Nasdaq - the strongest so far held up by a few largest market cap stock like AMZN,GOOG,FB.  Heck.. even AAPL already shaky here at 115.
What's another -10  to -15 pts to $100  later, rite? If happens, let's buy!  drool.gif
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i hv no mood to by add anything new. just hold on to what i hv, which is back to zero usd roi for the year. biggrin.gif

but... trading crude/inverse is fun. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 10 2015, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE
Bomb blast, US consulate attacked in Istanbul: Reports
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/bomb-blast-...ul-reports.html

AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(em0kia @ Aug 11 2015, 12:24 AM)
hello everyone smile.gif nice to meet you guys.. I am very interested in getting US stock and I check around this forum but couldnt find an article/guide on how to purchase US stock.. Maybe thats because i still dont know what are the common keyword used in this industry. but nevertheless, may i know how do you guys purchase the US stocks? Any reputable brokers to recommend? (or can we purchase directly)
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u will find some good info if u look up the links provided in this thread:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2378747/+60
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 10 2015, 10:04 PM)
huh, a relief to see green stuff around after 7 days.
still, i feel many prices are struggling to stay higher.
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ya, some rain after a long drought! biggrin.gif


was going to take some profit on inverse crude, then this happened!

guess i hv to wait for the technicians and engineers to fix the malfunction. laugh.gif

In Monday's session, gasoline futures jumped about 3 percent, heading for its largest daily gain in a month, after BP's 240,000 barrel per day crude distillation unit at its Whiting, Indiana, refinery, was shut by a malfunction on Saturday, sources familiar with operations at the plant said.
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 01:05 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 11 2015, 01:00 AM)
oil rebounding n i cant see any reasons? or is it a technical rebound after getting smashed for a long while?
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well... it has been falling and falling, some rebound takes very little.

a bomb blast in instanbul plus a us refinery broke down - that's all it took to push it up 2-3%. biggrin.gif

can't see it go up much further.
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 11 2015, 01:06 AM)
haha. agree.
we saw low of 43+ anad wish i have the facility to short it, but none wor.  rclxub.gif
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the downtrend is intact.

it may just drop like a stone anytime! tongue.gif

anyway, some good reading - of currencies, commodities and emerging markets:

QUOTE
EM currency crunch to last beyond Fed hike
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/em-currency...d-fed-hike.html

Rumors of commodities' demise are not being exaggerated
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/09/-are-dying-a-slow-death.html

Maybe the Commodities Supercycle Is Actually Real
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015...s-actually-real

End of Commodities Supercycle?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2...-energy-subset/
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 11 2015, 01:22 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 06:06 PM

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tonite will be fun. tongue.gif


.. china rmb devaluation
.. usd rising
.. crude falling
.. euro in red
.. futures -1xx


if u dun know yet, rm is now past 4.0.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=12h
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 11 2015, 08:39 PM)
Waah.. more power to the dollar with the rmb devaluation. More pressure for ringgit to go down even more.
Heck.. I'll wait till 4.1x then before next weekend trip to JB.
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it took only a short time to get to 4.0.

4.1 next weekend, a litle tough... go next month la... tongue.gif

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