You can top up more into Aladdin Fund then.

Cikgu ajar - do not top up the laggard

Shifting more overweight for Global Titanic instead

Then the Titanic becomes the laggard

U should've said..."then the Titanic sank"!

Siapa cikgu tu?

Labah-labah Merah Jambu

i like aladdin fund. might not be providing return more than other funds, but giving me less volatility and the fact that i did check their holdings from the annual/semi-annual report... seems like not the kind of fund that changes holdings all the time.

holding on to good companies around the world

So what's your strategy next? Buy or top up more?

bought...

er... no strategy... abit lost currently... was hopping myr go up for a few more days... then consider topping up, cause i have 1% SC token... but...

myr really no hope...

Wall St up as tepid job data eases rate hike concerns
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/w...ns?type=Markets

Will global market react on 5/7 when Greece hold referendum?

Tonight I want to introduce an advance lesson in financial theory: Probability of Return.

1) So far we have been talking about return per se and we have seen how volatility affects our mood and mental well-being.

2) I wish now to talk about this concept called probability of return which is based on statistic z-score methodology.

3) Suppose hypothetical you have a portfolio of various assets or UT and you calculated it to have a return of 3 year annual 14% p.a with a standard deviation 10%. Just take it that a very stable money market fund gives 4% p.a. rate of return. The Sharpe ratio is then a nice hypothetical (14 - 4)/10 = 1

4) Suppose that the return are spaced in a normal distribution curve (aka bell shaped curve).

5) Suppose you are happy with just 10% and wondered what is the probability or chance of getting a 10% hit.

6) Using the formula Z-score = (ROI - Avr ROI)/Std-Dev = (10 - 14) / 10 = -0.4. Now with a Z-score of -0.4, look up a standard text book Z-table you will get 0.3446.

7) This 0.3446 tells you that the chance or probability of your portfolio achieving a 10% or more is 1 - 0.3446 = 0.6554 i.e., 65.54% within a one year period.

8) 34.46% chance you will get a return of 10% or less. So, is this a good hedge? Anything more than 50% is the good already!

9) Suppose you now want only a 5% ROI; then the Z-score becomes 0.1841; which means now you have a 1 - 0.1841 = 0.8159 or 81.59% chance in one year to get a 5% ROI.

10) Conversely, should you desire a say 20% ROI based on your portfolio.... using the same formula; Z-score becomes 0.7257; i.e. 1 - 0.7257 = 0.2743 or only 27.43% chance of getting a 20% ROI within a one year period.

So, what is the key take away message here?

a) Keep your standard-deviation low (aka risk or volatility).
b) Seek the best Sharpe ratio portfolio. How? Use awesome algorithm tool such as Algozen™ to seek the best Sharpe ratio portfolio.
c) Have a realistic expectation.
d) Be a totally Geeky person!

Xuzen

p/s This lessons is not very important to lay-investors but I am writing it here anyhow because I am a Geek! and I am tired of talking the same stuff all the time.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 2 2015, 11:10 PM

For (b), too bad that Algozen™ is not open to the public. LOL

Why curse when you an just fire the Fund Manager aka Sell that bloody fund!

Xuzen

Before in here, once the fund is being cursed, it'll react oppositely. LOL

Keyword: "theory".

In practice, well, it's only a small percentage of the whole "thing".

So, let's take some points in turn:

1. "probability", and all those fancy statistics are based on past events. In case one didn't know, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Therefore, to "calculate" future performance based on past statistics, and form a conclusion based on that is the wrong thing to do.

2. Fund performance has factors that statistics cannot take into account. a) Fund managers (as in manager persons, not fund house) can change, and the new fund managers can have different view-points and can do something very different. That can stuff you your nicely calculated standard-deviations and Sharpe ratios.

Statistics is nice and useful, and is one of the many, many, things one needs to consider.

My portfolio showed 2 negatives:

Am Commodities Eq -7.57%
Am Precious metal -6.1%

Fed up i top up 5k each for them today.
Question is if they go further south, should i top up more?
Thanks for anyone care to comment.

Amprecious is very volatile. I dont have the balls for it.

Both of them are commodity funds. At current market sentiment, they won't be bullish for long way to go.

Fund managers can short commodities. Then again, I prefer equity funds.