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 Fundsupermart.com v10, Double digit (portfolio) growth!

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xuzen
post Apr 29 2015, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 29 2015, 09:58 PM)
IMHO only that V with lessons on portfolio worksheet construction worth back-linking too.

Aku TS, aku nak letak apa kat Post #1, it's my prerogative! tongue.gif
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I demand more Viet pixs!

Xuzen
xuzen
post Apr 29 2015, 11:40 PM

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To answer Ivan Wong,

i pulled some numbers and it look like this:

MSI is a a component of Nasdaq. Nasdaq average annualised return for the past years is 20% p.a. MSI correlation coeeficient wrt Nasdaq i.e., its beta relative to benchmark is 0.7 ( from Yahoo finance )


The risk free rate i.e, Ten Year US govt bond is currently resting at 2.05% p.a.

Using CAPM formula, I got the required rate for MSI to be 14.62% p.a.

This means that MSI must have an upside potential of at least 14.62% to make it attractive to investor.

Based on last closing price of USD 60.18 and analyst one year target price of USD 65.00 ( got it from a finance website -marketwatch ), the upside potential is abt 8%. Hence to a common man, MSI is unattractive. But, you mentioned you can buy at a 15% discount, so 15+8% = 23% is attractive for you. Hence it is a Buy for you.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 4 2015, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ May 4 2015, 03:00 PM)
Indian manufacturing growth slows on weaker demand in April, PMI shows
PUBLISHED ON MAY 4, 2015
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian manufacturing growth eased in April as domestic demand softened, despite factories cutting prices for the first time in nearly two years, a business survey showed on Monday.
- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/business/...h.wxkfEb0I.dpuf

and yet
SE Sensex  +338.34 +1.25%, so are "GREEN" for all other Indian indexes

Stock markets works in mysterious way.. icon_rolleyes.gif
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Dips my naan into some rogan josh while sipping masala tea. Enjoying the afternoon rain in my Mumbai mansion surrounded by a harem of dancing girls while watching boys play cricket in the wet muddy fields.

Sensex up or down... no eye see. Because there is a such thing as reversion to the mean phenomenon.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 4 2015, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(superman fay @ May 4 2015, 04:10 PM)
Hi All,

Is there any penalties if i terminate regular savings plan within 2 month ?
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Penalty: Your Unit Trust agent will be pissed off. Next time, you call, will not answer your call. Label you as" kaw kaw chun moh pong chan"

Xuzen




xuzen
post May 7 2015, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 7 2015, 11:24 AM)
Fasten your seatbelt for the roller coaster ride and enjoy it bro.  biggrin.gif

Lai, lai. Siapa lagi berani masuk Manulife India sekarang?
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Human nature is such, even if you design a very stable portfolio that sits right at the most optimum point on the efficient frontier giving the best risk optimised return... they will still be not happy.

By nature we want to have some unknown, it excites our soul, it tickles our brain... in short, it allows us to be human. It shows our curiosity and willingness to embrace risk and adventure. It is coded into our DNA.

So, take some money and gamble at it... it is good for the soul!

Xuzen

p/s

I just checked my portfolio and my sexy fund is down around 4% from my average buying price (I DCA into sexy over a course of 3 mths liao), with its 1xStd-Dev of 18%, so there is still room for it to drop further. However, I am betting it may swing 18% upwards sometime in the future. Sexy constitute 15% of my equity portfolio at the moment. So a 4% drop of 15% is only 0.6% of my portfolio.


This post has been edited by xuzen: May 7 2015, 11:55 AM
xuzen
post May 7 2015, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 7 2015, 02:26 PM)
This is called itchy backside syndrome. When my portfolio was doing OK and before the China market rallied, I thought I wanted some excitement in my portfolio.  blush.gif

So I bought into AmPrecious Metals. First time buy in, after 1 month, I made about RM1k plus. So I thought I was the champion. So, second time buy in again. Now, I am trapped already.  I will get out from AmPrecious Metals soon once I break even.  sweat.gif

So, to cut a long story short......No, you did not miss anything. Please don't touch anything with the name Precious Metals or Commodities in it.  tongue.gif
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Commodities is soooooo passe! It was so yesterday... Today is China! China! China! And tomorrow... according to my crystal ball may be Eurozone (QE effect mah!)

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 8 2015, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(yck1987 @ May 7 2015, 11:03 PM)
isn't saying that if your sensex fund swing 18% higher from now would only transform a hike of 2.7% in your portfolio?
4% drop of 15% = 0.6%
18% hike of 15% = 2.7% ?  tongue.gif enough ah? 
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Actually my greedy heart thinks 2.7% is not enough... but the rate limiting factor is the volatility aka riskiness of the said fund. My algozen™ calculated that Sexy is still a good bet even though the volatility is very high as long as I do not expose more than 15% to it.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 8 2015, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ May 8 2015, 10:06 AM)
china, china is down these 2 days... time to top up?
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I am maintaining 80% exposure to Greater China because it still offer the best risk adjusted reward compared to other geographical region. If I can find another asset class that have better risk adjusted reward, I'll dump this and move on... no emotional attachment. It is all about the numbers.

Back to your question: To answer the above question, look at your own portfolio...how many % exposure are you holding This should answer your question. Ultimately, it all boils down to how much risk can you stomach.

You will also realise that I do not talk about market timing, i..e, when can top up or when to pull out. I always talk about how much % to hold. If you think from this perspective, then you will realise the there is no more need to ask when to buy or when to sell anymore!

This is all part and parcel of asset allocation and based on the Modern Portfolio Theory.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 8 2015, 11:16 AM
xuzen
post May 8 2015, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ May 8 2015, 09:37 AM)
If we plan to hold the fund for more than 3 years, we can ignore short term volatility.

As far as Warren Buffett is concered, volatility does not equate risk  sleep.gif
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Not sure what Warren Buffett said because I no longer subscribe to Fundamental Analysis school of thought.

To put it in a easily understand manner; risk is a concept and volatility is a measurement of the riskiness. Similar like distance is a concept, and a measurement of distance is meter, feet, mile etc.

The commonly agreed unit of volatility is called Standard Deviation.

For example, two risky asset, Fund A has a volatility of 8.7% standard deviation and Fund B has 18.0% Standard Deviation. Tell me, which one is more risky?

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 8 2015, 11:15 AM
xuzen
post May 8 2015, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 8 2015, 04:08 PM)
One of my favourite movies is Braveheart, starring Mel Gibson as William Wallace. He was the Scottish patriot and national hero who fought and died to free Scotland from English rule.

There is a scene in the movie where the heavily armoured English cavalry was charging on horses towards the lightly armed Scottish infantry. Wallace ordered his troops to "HOLD....HOLD.....HOLD....". At the very last minute, the Scottish infantry raised 10 feet long poles which were lying hidden on the ground to pierce and slaughter the English cavalryman. Scotland won a great victory that day.

What does this story has to do with investing in unit trusts in FSM? In times of great uncertainty and adversity, if we have a proper asset allocation, then we should just weather the storm and hold our portfolio. The storm will pass and we will emerge victorious at the end.

China and India may be falling today but we should stay focused. Invest more if we can afford to and just sit tight to weather the storm.
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When all you have is just some primitive pointy tip polearm then you can only hold hold hold loh! Imagine if he has with him trebuchet, multiple firing crossbows etc, then he has so much more options.

Similarly in Bolehland, we can only long a fund and nothing else hence we can only wait it out. Now imagine if we can short sell funds or perhaps write and sell our own put or call options. Do much more we can do....rather than wait it out and tok-kok with strangers over the net.

xuzen


xuzen
post May 11 2015, 12:46 PM

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My Sexy has dropped to -9% as of today. China has dropped -4%. Total portfolio has dropped to -5%.

Algozen™ calculated my total portfolio downside to be -8%, hence -5% is still within range. In fact if I am down -8%, it is signal to top up.

Xuzen

xuzen
post May 12 2015, 12:20 PM

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Seriously all these media report are noises, media porn!

One day one report say go up, next day another report says gloom and doom. As a lay-investor, which one to believe?

That is why, practice asset allocation by placing your portfolio at or near the efficient frontier. have a little of everything. Keep more if the asset class gives better risk-adjusted reward, keep less if more risky.

Market go up or down, you will still benefit from it all....

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 13 2015, 03:05 PM

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In one week, my portfolio swung from -5% to -1.5%. China and India recovered ground....

Luckily didn't do anything... let the reversion to mean do its job.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 14 2015, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(pr0pofol @ May 14 2015, 11:15 AM)
currently i invested 50% in ponzi 2 and 50% in greater china
thinking of diversifying to reduce risk.. which to add? japan? global titan? or just local kgf?
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Bad choice in diversification....

Ponzi 2.0 has abt 50% in Greater China exposure.... putting another 50% into a UT that expose to Greater China will only increase your Greater China exposure to 75%... this is certainly not diversification, more like concentration.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 14 2015, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(pr0pofol @ May 14 2015, 12:57 PM)
yklooi,  the fact that most of my investments are somewhere else,  and those are safe investment,  hence why i'm trying to be agressive with FSM.. but at the sane time still takut lor.. so want to diversify a bit,  at least wont tergolek dog if market is really bad

xuzen,  yes looks like i'm dumping all in one region,  thats why i ask how to diversify lah..
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CIMB Global Titan Fund.. not a bad UT fund. Check it out.

It invest in US. Eurozone and Japan Blue Chip stocks, something that is not covered at all in Ponzi 2.0.

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 14 2015, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(pr0pofol @ May 14 2015, 01:53 PM)
but looking years back.. it had very bad years, quite volatile too
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I'll pluck some figures from FSM's website and throw into my Algozen™.... this is what is comes up:

For optimal: 80% Ponzi 2.0; 20% Titanic Fund

Your historical portfolio return (3 year annualized) = 22% p.a.

Reward to Risk Ratio = 2.9

Not bad what....

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 14 2015, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(IvanWong1989 @ May 14 2015, 02:51 PM)
XD sorry but can't hold back my comment. "TITANIC FUND" LMAO LMAO LMAO biggrin.gif
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Just realised "Titanic" sound sooooooo ominous/very cheh/sangat pantang (threateningly inauspicious) tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif blush.gif blush.gif blush.gif
xuzen
post May 15 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 15 2015, 03:44 PM)
You bought this Eastspring Fund? Aisey, how I envy you.

Do you want to swap fund with me? I give you my AmPrecious Metals at a discounted price.  brows.gif
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Fulau weh.... forumers have graduated from plain buy, hold or sell unit trust to credit swaps, asset backed obligation and collaterized asset default swap or whatchamacallit..... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 22 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 21 2015, 09:51 PM)
Why so high doh.gif

Eh eh eh, look at Al Aqar Healthcare REIT too icon_idea.gif
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Ooi! Labah-Labah Merah Jambu.... klau nak diskusi pasal saham... pegi thread saham. Di sini kito cakap amanah saham aje! Off topic!

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Xuzen
xuzen
post May 22 2015, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 22 2015, 11:34 AM)
user posted image
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Fulau weh! rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

Xuzen

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