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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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Showtime747
post Aug 9 2015, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(bullchips @ Aug 9 2015, 03:25 PM)
Er, in 2008/9 it traded about RM0.60 fully tenanted with just a potential risk on Atrium SA2. Nothing academic here, just illogical market sentiment which is part and parcel of the market. Inversely, how much would it have traded if all properties were vacant except one?

2017 is also about whence the next major stock market cyclical correction can occur - about every decade (give or take a couple of years).

It takes time to liquidate all the properties - meanwhile your $$ is locked with no income when opportunities abound elsewhere( stable DPU should be the only consideration for REIT ).

That's why the ? in my sentence.

P.S. would you buy at RM0.90 without DPU ? tongue.gif
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Good bargain at 0.90. Of course with dividend lah drool.gif

When the only vacant property finds a tenant and back to normal rental income, it will be 7.7% yield

Have also disposed this reit last time. Hope it can go down to RM0.90. RM1.00 also ok lah I re-enter tongue.gif
cherroy
post Aug 9 2015, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(bullchips @ Aug 9 2015, 03:25 PM)
Er, in 2008/9 it traded about RM0.60 fully tenanted with just a potential risk on Atrium SA2. Nothing academic here, just illogical market sentiment which is part and parcel of the market. Inversely, how much would it have traded if all properties were vacant except one?

2017 is also about whence the next major stock market cyclical correction can occur - about every decade (give or take a couple of years).

It takes time to liquidate all the properties - meanwhile your $$ is locked with no income when opportunities abound elsewhere( stable DPU should be the only consideration for REIT ).

That's why the ? in my sentence.

P.S. would you buy at RM0.90 without DPU ? tongue.gif
*
When it was plunging to RM0.60, it was not fully tenanted, one of major tenant moved out that resulted DPU plunged severely that's why its share price dropped so much at that time.
I had it that time, DPU plunged to around 0.8 cents, instead normal around 2 cents.

I won't buy at RM0.90 with no DPU, but I would buy if below RM0.40~0.50. tongue.gif
wil-i-am
post Aug 9 2015, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 9 2015, 05:34 PM)
When it was plunging to RM0.60, it was not fully tenanted, one of major tenant moved out that resulted DPU plunged severely that's why its share price dropped so much at that time.
I had it that time, DPU plunged to around 0.8 cents, instead normal around 2 cents.

I won't buy at RM0.90 with no DPU, but I would buy if below RM0.40~0.50.  tongue.gif
*
I bot Atrium during bad time too
The highest n lowest dividend from 2008 to 2014 was 8.80% (2012 n 2013) n 6.95% (2009)
CP88
post Aug 9 2015, 08:15 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 7 2015, 01:49 PM)
Already ex-div, so currently less attractive, need to wait for another 3 months.  laugh.gif
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Bro cherroy,
Do you still hold MQreit? biggrin.gif

QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 9 2015, 05:34 PM)
When it was plunging to RM0.60, it was not fully tenanted, one of major tenant moved out that resulted DPU plunged severely that's why its share price dropped so much at that time.
I had it that time, DPU plunged to around 0.8 cents, instead normal around 2 cents.

I won't buy at RM0.90 with no DPU, but I would buy if below RM0.40~0.50.  tongue.gif
*
So we shall look at this REIT when it touches 0.50 range? tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 9 2015, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Aug 9 2015, 08:15 PM)
Bro cherroy,
Do you still hold MQreit?  biggrin.gif
So we shall look at this REIT when it touches 0.50 range?  tongue.gif
*
With NTA at 1.40, way before it touches 0.50, it will be privatised tongue.gif

Let's hope for RM1.00 is more realistic thumbup.gif
cherroy
post Aug 10 2015, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Aug 9 2015, 08:15 PM)
Bro cherroy,
Do you still hold MQreit?  biggrin.gif
So we shall look at this REIT when it touches 0.50 range?  tongue.gif
*
Yes, but not keen on adding with the new acquisition.
I preferred the old Qcap.

When it touches RM0.50, investors may interest to privatise it.
Privatise at Rm0.50, fire-sale the property at 30% discount, you still get RM0.80~0.90,

cherroy
post Aug 10 2015, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 9 2015, 10:03 PM)
With NTA at 1.40, way before it touches 0.50, it will be privatised  tongue.gif

Let's hope for RM1.00 is more realistic  thumbup.gif
*
RM0.80~1.00 is possible if DPU is poor.

Reit market looks for yield one.
NTA only can see, but cannot touch/eat one, tongue.gif so useless for investors until it is being liquidated.


bullchips
post Aug 10 2015, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 9 2015, 05:34 PM)
When it was plunging to RM0.60, it was not fully tenanted, one of major tenant moved out that resulted DPU plunged severely that's why its share price dropped so much at that time.
I had it that time, DPU plunged to around 0.8 cents, instead normal around 2 cents.

I won't buy at RM0.90 with no DPU, but I would buy if below RM0.40~0.50.  tongue.gif
*
Quite close to my agak-agak RM0.30. tongue.gif
bullchips
post Aug 10 2015, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 9 2015, 10:03 PM)
With NTA at 1.40, way before it touches 0.50, it will be privatised  tongue.gif

Let's hope for RM1.00 is more realistic  thumbup.gif
*
Some realistic facts trivia.

2008/2009 trading about RM0.60 without one tenant.
2015 trading about RM1.13 without one tenant.

About RM0.50 difference for a similar situation that cannot be explained based purely on the academics. However, inject a good dose of "fuzzy logic" & we start to see the picture . . .

Cherroy have his own logic with his RM0.40/0.50. I am more kiasu at RM0.30, you have your own logic . . .

Wishing the best to all however they want to spend their money.

Showtime747
post Aug 10 2015, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 10 2015, 10:03 AM)
RM0.80~1.00 is possible if DPU is poor.

Reit market looks for yield one.
NTA only can see, but cannot touch/eat one,  tongue.gif  so useless for investors until it is being liquidated.
*
QUOTE(bullchips @ Aug 10 2015, 11:07 AM)
Some realistic facts trivia.

2008/2009 trading about RM0.60 without one tenant.
        2015 trading about RM1.13 without one tenant.

About RM0.50 difference for a similar situation that cannot be explained based purely on the academics. However, inject a good dose of "fuzzy logic" & we start to see the picture . . .

Cherroy have his own logic with his RM0.40/0.50. I am more kiasu at RM0.30, you have your own logic . . .

Wishing the best to all however they want to spend their money.
*
Let's do a simple valuation :

1Q 15 profit RM2.1m (DPU gross 1.73 sen)
2Q 15 profit RM5.5m less profit for sale of property RM4.3m = RM1.2m (DPU gross 1.00 sen)

Price today RM1.14
Annual DPU = 4 x 0.9 sen = 3.6 sen / 1.14 = Net yield 3.2%

Based on current scenario (1 property vacant)

Valuation with target 5% yield = RM0.72
Valuation with target 6% yield = RM0.60
Valuation with target 7% yield = RM0.51

So with the assumption that the Puchong property will be vacant forever, at target 5-7% yield, the valuation based on DPU is around RM0.50-RM0.70. This will be the base line

But the vacant property will not be vacant forever. And if the share price is so low, major shareholder will be thinking of privatise it and make tens of million selling the properties. I still think the market price won't drop until so low with valuation of RM1.40. Although I also like to buy if it drop to 0.50-0.70 tongue.gif
pisces88
post Aug 11 2015, 06:37 PM

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ok la, got chance average down my amfirst arreit and twrreit liao sleep.gif
jutamind
post Aug 11 2015, 08:29 PM

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Reit prices don't seem to cirit birit much. Was hoping for shopping carnival soon
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 11 2015, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Aug 11 2015, 08:29 PM)
Reit prices don't seem to cirit birit much. Was hoping for shopping carnival soon
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Jangan lah...other stocks already menstruating like no tomorrow sweat.gif
ryan18
post Aug 11 2015, 08:42 PM

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sunway REIT 2.05sen
0.96 sen taxable,1.09 sen tax exempt(bursa announcement) or 0.79sen taxable,1.26 tax exempt(presentation slide) payable 10 sept

This post has been edited by ryan18: Aug 11 2015, 08:53 PM
wil-i-am
post Aug 11 2015, 09:36 PM

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FY6/15 DY of 5.70% (b4 wht) is not attractive
Hope DY will increase in FY6/16 as Sunway Putra Mall commence biz in 3Q15
SUSwankongyew
post Aug 12 2015, 09:10 AM

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Why is UOAREIT dropping so much?

Edit: Ok, so it's very low volume. But still shocking the lack of any buyers. I don't hold it but it'd always seemed like a decent REIT to me.

This post has been edited by wankongyew: Aug 12 2015, 09:24 AM
ZeaXG
post Aug 12 2015, 12:37 PM

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iJibby reit getting really tempting. tongue.gif
nexona88
post Aug 12 2015, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(ZeaXG @ Aug 12 2015, 12:37 PM)
iJibby reit getting really tempting. tongue.gif
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what? blink.gif rclxub.gif
cherroy
post Aug 12 2015, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Aug 12 2015, 09:10 AM)
Why is UOAREIT dropping so much?

Edit: Ok, so it's very low volume. But still shocking the lack of any buyers. I don't hold it but it'd always seemed like a decent REIT to me.
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All sold down across in the market, nothing spare, sentiment is bad across.
SUSPink Spider
post Aug 12 2015, 04:34 PM

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If BNM raise rates, REITs will kena

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