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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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icemanfx
post Nov 18 2014, 04:44 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 18 2014, 04:36 PM)
Flipper target is poor ice cream boy.
*
Then flippers will be disappointed.

Gravity
post Nov 18 2014, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2014, 03:58 PM)
Many flippers were hoping to offload upon vp, a fall of 5% will be enough to trigger the long down fall.

Construction cost i.e. building materials and loabour is only rm150 psf, a small portion of house price.

how does property price in other country related to kl? if taking jakarta as example, then muadzam shah is undervalued.

most if not all rich already have their houses, why do they need to buy from flippers?
Sabbatical leave?
*
Point 1 - construction cost
what im trying to convey is that cost is continuing to rise. Bulk of the cost will falls under land acquisition cost. Land cost and construction cost will not fall unless major global event happen. On top of that, developer will want to make some money out of the project. Hence, the price will always match the vacinity. Thus, maintaining the price at a higher than market value level.

Point 2 - foreign investment
I was basically refering to FDI. If you're investor and you realized there are high capital appreciation gain investing in KL, why would you go for jakarta or Bangkok which price is already hitting a probable ceiling. Hence, people will still come back to KL for investment. No doubt the government has implemented many ways to curb the speculation, but for me, when there's a will, there's a way. The rich can still invest via different route.

It's all about ROI. Property gives you 10-30% of your purchase value, not your investment amount. With leverage from banks, a property of RM500K, you only need around RM50K and say RM10K for expenses. A 10% rice in your market value will be already RM50K, hence there's effectively almost 100% ROI on your RM50K investment.




bcpbeancounter
post Nov 18 2014, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2014, 04:44 PM)
Then flippers will be disappointed.
*
If flipper disappointed means ice cream boy has to cont hide under the bridge. Probably hav to lick ice cream at night to make extra too!
yjtan15
post Nov 18 2014, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(MeToo @ Nov 18 2014, 02:24 PM)
Those who invest wanna sing the song of "Forever up market".

Those who waiting to buy will sing "Market Crashing Tomorrow".

Who is right or who is wrong... everyone commenting based on their own selfish reason.
*
+1


cfa28
post Nov 18 2014, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(Gravity @ Nov 18 2014, 04:55 PM)
Point 1 - construction cost
what im trying to convey is that cost is continuing to rise. Bulk of the cost will falls under land acquisition cost. Land cost and construction cost will not fall unless major global event happen. On top of that, developer will want to make some money out of the project. Hence, the price will always match the vacinity. Thus, maintaining the price at a higher than market value level.

Point 2 - foreign investment
I was basically refering to FDI. If you're investor and you realized there are high capital appreciation gain investing in KL, why would you go for jakarta or Bangkok which price is already hitting a probable ceiling. Hence, people will still come back to KL for investment. No doubt the government has implemented many ways to curb the speculation, but for me, when there's a will, there's a way. The rich can still invest via different route.

It's all about ROI. Property gives you 10-30% of your purchase value, not your investment amount. With leverage from banks,  a property of RM500K, you only need around RM50K and say RM10K for expenses. A 10% rice in your market value will be already RM50K, hence there's effectively almost 100% ROI on your RM50K investment.
*
hey bro, can u share which Landed u just got. Thought u were about to close the deal in Mont Kiara (KDS) based on your last post?

This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 18 2014, 05:26 PM
HuiChyr
post Nov 18 2014, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 17 2014, 11:10 PM)
Bearbear you really think this thread will change the market direction meh ?  tongue.gif
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No it won't ... it'll keep going down .... biggrin.gif
Checking in btw... rclxms.gif
cfa28
post Nov 18 2014, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2014, 03:58 PM)
Many flippers were hoping to offload upon vp, a fall of 5% will be enough to trigger the long down fall.
*
Nope, fall of 5% - easily kena sapu by secondary bargain hunters

To trigger a downfall, you need a slowdown in overall economy

Even if 10% to 15% of flippers sell below cost on VP, still no effect cos will kena sapu


kradun
post Nov 18 2014, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 05:57 PM)
Nope, fall of 5% - easily kena sapu by secondary bargain hunters

To trigger a downfall, you need a slowdown in overall economy

Even if 10% to 15% of flippers sell below cost on VP, still no effect cos will kena sapu
*
U make my confident level up to 101% can offload my undercon unit upon vp around end of 2016.. smile.gif
cfa28
post Nov 18 2014, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Nov 18 2014, 06:10 PM)
U make my confident level up to 101% can offload my undercon unit upon vp around end of 2016.. smile.gif
*
U can sell immediately on VP, only issue is the price

Do u sell at Cost - 101% kena Sapu immediately by the Agent himself / herself

U want 5% Premium - sure got ready buyer

U want 10% Premium - have to wait a little longer lah

U want 25% Premium - have to slowly wait


U take any Condo project, even say 9-Seputeh

If even 15% to 20% of Purchasers suddenly wanna sell their units at 10% below cost, what do u think will happen

All the cash rich ppl or those who have yet to buy will sapu, so the Banks can recover their losses from these new purchasers over time

Mean time, they will sue the Flippers for their pants and A55, so there is no Bubble

For Bubble u need whole of KV Property Market to collapse, which is not likely

This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 18 2014, 06:33 PM
SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 18 2014, 05:49 PM)
No it won't ... it'll keep going down .... biggrin.gif
Checking in btw... rclxms.gif
*
Can you release HajiCloud after you having you fun with him ?

We need some "Want to cancel the bet or not jek ? Bear go Yaksi" comment laugh.gif


SUSjolokia
post Nov 18 2014, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 05:57 PM)
Nope, fall of 5% - easily kena sapu by secondary bargain hunters

To trigger a downfall, you need a slowdown in overall economy

Even if 10% to 15% of flippers sell below cost on VP, still no effect cos will kena sapu
*
Maybe Baskin Robbins give 5% discount will trigger Ice Cream market downfall, then we can buy the 31 flavour at Ais Potong price.. laugh.gif

Ice Cream Boy really speak from imaginative world. shakehead.gif
kradun
post Nov 18 2014, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Nov 18 2014, 06:14 PM)
U can sell immediately on VP, only issue is the price

Do u sell at Cost - 101% kena Sapu immediately by the Agent himself / herself

U want 5% Premium - sure got ready buyer

U want 10% Premium - have to wait a little longer lah

U want 25% Premium - have to slowly wait
U take any Condo project, even say 9-Seputeh

If even 15% to 20% of Purchasers suddenly wanna sell their units at 10% below cost, what do u think will happen

All the cash rich ppl or those who have yet to buy will sapu, so the Banks can recover their losses from these new purchasers over time

Mean time, they will sue the Flippers for their pants and A55, so there is no Bubble

For Bubble u need whole of KV Property Market to collapse, which is not likely
*
Okie noted, confident level up to 102%.. If i get profit of just 50-100k i will come back here to let ddd laugh, since the benchmark here is profit must at least over 200k..
Showtime747
post Nov 18 2014, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 18 2014, 05:49 PM)
No it won't ... it'll keep going down .... biggrin.gif
Checking in btw... rclxms.gif
*
Hey bro, long time no check in here

Any good dead chicken to share ?
Jliew168
post Nov 18 2014, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Nov 18 2014, 06:48 PM)
Okie noted, confident level up to 102%.. If i get profit of just 50-100k i will come back here to let ddd laugh, since the benchmark here is profit must at least over 200k..
*
Where is your project n entry price ?if you don't mind

This post has been edited by Jliew168: Nov 18 2014, 07:01 PM
Jliew168
post Nov 18 2014, 07:03 PM

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Mr clould still alive? He been disappear for so long. I think I need to make police repot tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 18 2014, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 18 2014, 06:33 PM)
Maybe Baskin Robbins give 5% discount will trigger Ice Cream market downfall, then we can buy the 31 flavour at Ais Potong price..  laugh.gif

Ice Cream Boy really speak from imaginative world.  shakehead.gif
*
Unless BR can defy gravity, the longer the price increase, the harder it falls. It is just a matter of time BR price will fall back to long term equilibrium price
Showtime747
post Nov 18 2014, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Nov 18 2014, 06:48 PM)
Okie noted, confident level up to 102%.. If i get profit of just 50-100k i will come back here to let ddd laugh, since the benchmark here is profit must at least over 200k..
*
My office clerk's flat VPed recently already earn that much. She paid around RM100k-RM110k. Offer she got is RM190k. Figures roughly around there can't remember exactly

Unless economic crisis happen lah. Then you have to hold until recovery
bearbearwong
post Nov 18 2014, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(Gravity @ Nov 18 2014, 04:55 PM)
Point 1 - construction cost
what im trying to convey is that cost is continuing to rise. Bulk of the cost will falls under land acquisition cost. Land cost and construction cost will not fall unless major global event happen. On top of that, developer will want to make some money out of the project. Hence, the price will always match the vacinity. Thus, maintaining the price at a higher than market value level.

Point 2 - foreign investment
I was basically refering to FDI. If you're investor and you realized there are high capital appreciation gain investing in KL, why would you go for jakarta or Bangkok which price is already hitting a probable ceiling. Hence, people will still come back to KL for investment. No doubt the government has implemented many ways to curb the speculation, but for me, when there's a will, there's a way. The rich can still invest via different route.

It's all about ROI. Property gives you 10-30% of your purchase value, not your investment amount. With leverage from banks,  a property of RM500K, you only need around RM50K and say RM10K for expenses. A 10% rice in your market value will be already RM50K, hence there's effectively almost 100% ROI on your RM50K investment.
*
how come other coutries will face correction? we have Malaysia had crash in property price before..

Insider news from major Insurance company and banks, audit reports suggested cost cutting in all departments, inclusive both local banks and foreign banks..

still on property BBB mode , please buy more..

many Malaysians seems to failed to fork out 40k to 80k to buy the mass market supplies which worth 400k to 800k region, and left it empty for more than 1 year, some genuis say renovation wor, some super genuis whole year no time to go in , some genius also forgot that same time yllow banners are up for sale rclxms.gif

hi I am BBW..

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Nov 18 2014, 07:23 PM
bearbearwong
post Nov 18 2014, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 18 2014, 04:44 PM)
Then flippers will be disappointed.
*
construction cost, land cost, labour cost all are BS, same Indonesia workers, same construction site machines & cranes, if all the above said cost so much, why developers still building rampantly and hope for some 20% profit margin? consultant also take more than that..

they are made up to justify the price of property... since a property say like PV setapak was sold around 200k, now become 500k? the developers cost was 200k inclusive of everything, what is the problem and where the 300k? cost of constructions? labor? expected profit... they mention everything under the sky to justify the price but never admitted the property speculation is the major chunk that cause the price like that..
bearbearwong
post Nov 18 2014, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 18 2014, 07:01 PM)
Where is your project  n entry price ?if you don't mind
*
Bro Jliew, your profit is 200k for Midfields 2 or more...

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