This is a continuation from V7:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3259380

This is a continuation from V6:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3212945

The collapse of the US housing market bubble emphasizes how important it is to figure out what property is really worth, from a fundamental perspective. Make sure you’re not over-paying!

There are 4 yardsticks of bubble markets:

•Price to Rent Ratio (or Yield)
•Relative Prices
•Affordability
•Price of new builds


VALUATION TOOL 1: THE PRICE TO RENT RATIO

The gross rental yield) is the housing parallel to the price/earnings ratio. Here is a set of rules of thumb for the housing market:

VALUATION YARDSTICKS FOR THE HOUSING MARKET

PRICE/RENT RATIO GROSS RENTAL YIELD (%)

5 20 Very undervalued
6.7 15 Very undervalued
8.3 12 Undervalued
10 10 Undervalued
12.5 8 Borderline undervalued
14.2 7 Fairly priced
16.7 6 Fairly priced
20 5 Borderline overvalued
25 4 Overvalued
33.3 3 Overvalued
40 2.5 Very overvalued
50 2 Very overvalued

But there are exceptions to this. When strong future growth in value is expected e.g in areas where transport infrastructure is being upgraded then relatively weak present earnings can be acceptable.

There are several good reasons why people should pay attention to the 'valuation parameters':

Higher rental yields push the housing market higher

If rental yield levels are high, this will tend to mean that the interest cost of buying a house is low, compared to the cost of renting a house:

•Potential buyers will pay less to borrow from the bank (in order to buy) than they pay when renting a house. Many will move from being renters to buyers.
•Entrepreneurs will find it makes sense to buy houses to make money, i.e., buy in order to rent them out.

Both these factors put upward pressure on house prices.

Lower rental yields put downward pressure house prices

If rental yield levels are low, this will tend to mean that the interest cost of buying a house is high, compared to the cost of renting a house:

•Potential buyers will find that to buy a house involves paying much more to the bank, than it costs to rent a house. Buyers, especially first-time buyers, may have difficulty financing housing. Banks will be worried about over-lending at loan-to-income ratios which mean that a slight increase in interest rates will mean financial crisis for the borrower.
•Entrepreneurs will find that buying-to-let won't pay.

The house price can be viewed as a kind of circle, with houses prices moving from yields of (say) 4% to 11%

•Yields shifting down to 4% would represent danger.
•Yields rising to 11% would signal opportunity.


VALUATION TOOL 2: RELATIVE PRICES

People tend to actively look for cheaper and better alternatives. Where houses are very highly priced, people will seek more affordable alternatives. So if you’re buying property that’s amazingly expensive on a sqaure foot basis compared to its surrounding developments – BEWARE!


VALUATION TOOL 3: AFFORDABILITY

If house prices are so high that few people can actually afford to buy them, then their value will likely fall in future. A reasonable measure of value is a country’s GDP per capita. In a country where the ratio of house prices to GDP/capita is high, it’s a fair bet that houses are overvalued.

Relative to GDP/Capita levels:
•House prices in Luxembourg, Belgium, Norway, Denmark and Austria seem cheap.
•House prices in the UK, Italy, France and the Netherlands seem comparatively expensive.


VALUATION TOOL 4: PRICE OF NEW BUILDS

If house prices are much higher than the cost of building (construction costs), developers are motivated to put up buildings. So when you see a rush by developers to build, that’s a danger sign. As new supply comes into the housing market, that tends to put pressure on prices. So when house prices are far greater than new-build costs, it's a very clear signal that prices are likely to come down.

This post has been edited by gogo2: Aug 9 2014, 02:50 PM

1st!!!

Continuation from last thread:-



Construction of a typical condo is between rm120/ft2 to rm150/ft2, even 10% increased is marginal to selling price.

Property game is not new, if this could work out, people in property trade (i.e. developers, contractors, suppliers) would have practice it years ago. Why developers need to have pre-launch, soft launch, launch in phases, dibs, low entry, etc?


No, I don't believe him, he is just another over stretched flippers. His real game will start when his properties become vp, starting to pay installments.

Back to work

This post has been edited by TheRoadRunner: Jul 30 2014, 09:04 AM

To lyn student mr iceman




Lol seem that u r property expert as well le..by the way which stock counter n property that u have invested before since u like to give comment?i would like to listen your ' expert' opinion?

Ok ok all joke aside, how u know I over stretched flipper? U sleep under my bed ?

One things u r right that my real game will start after VP because I will be so bz renovate my asset

Talk here no use, let's yum cha and don't hide behind keyboard and I show U my card..may be I can learn something that I don't know from u leh

This post has been edited by Jliew168: Jul 30 2014, 12:03 PM

Deleted

This post has been edited by Jliew168: Jul 30 2014, 12:03 PM

Gogo2 why not in Property Talk ??

Then all these joker cannot simply post nonsense.

Manugidds
Zuiko407
Appreciativeman
Jliew168
Tigerr
Jolokia



This post has been edited by jolokia: Jul 30 2014, 03:19 PM

Post human organs n coitus n sodomy action is ok?

so obsess with bubble?
obviously no other suggestions are accepted here and people with objections are all jokers for sure...

OK your name been added as well.

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/consumer/property...20140730-371613

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/consumer/property...20140730-371399

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/consumer/property...20140730-371615

Aiyoh....lets come out yum cha n I teach u how to spell my nick....

Mod banish my thread to here.

bubble sudah happen you guys keepign war and post comments putting the threads on top of the list.. other ppl/sponsors see also tulan sopil market, i think they thought too shallow, we comment more on the threads itself.. more damage

You are an employee, bought a number of units to flip.

I am only a student, have nothing and dare not teach property taikor here. Hence, it will be a waste of time and $ to yum cha with me.

Betui betui

Now property begin to sounds like Gold investment already.. Just read those Singapore news i attached, developer very cautious to launch, if disaster project mean domino effect.

Even Zuiko407 downgrade to Korean car & Japanese watch liao,,



This post has been edited by jolokia: Jul 30 2014, 06:31 PM

R u a retire grandpa ? U seem quite free looking for people to teman u yum cha.. :cheer:

Singapore property now really entering glaciations liao,,

Sincerely, all tai kor's , is it really not a good time to buy property now, I mean those double storey link houses that cost abt 700~900K bracket ?

My fear is that one the bubble burst, my 700k props will be reduced to only 400k and still have to service the loan like hell.

Thank you all

first thing first, no one can predict the future..

question is did you bought property at 700k-800k or bought at 400k and hoping for 700k-800k profit?

my opinion is if property was bought at 700k to 800k it wont drop below 400k like that, if you speculate to go up to 700k to 800k and drop back to 500k possible.. unless economy collapse (which Malaysia a lot of potential)

i see your worries too, forgive me for being daring to speculate that you are in for investment. if the said property was bought 700k to 800k, for own stay, there should be no problem, coz irregardless how the market goes, surely you will service the loans, unless for flipping..

this category of flipping is dangerous, means financially bo stability and harping on capital appreciation... depending on areas, normally those price for a DSL are either new Rawang, Kajang, Semenyih, seri kembangan, Puchong, Putrajaya, Bangi and etc and outskirt areas in KV, if old subsales then there possibility could be a lot.

actually if long run leh property goes up, but if you bought an overpriced property which was mostly the case unless subsales, you bought expensive stocks, in 5 years time appreciation shall be not so good and the buyers will opt for other prop..

if you bought at 700k to 800k and hoping for some 1 million or 900k profit, then you can forget about it on the next 5 years..

berapa biji you sapu di at KLCC areas?

Can't answer u coz your question is too wide..it have to depend on a lots of factor and timing is just one of it..
Your own financial capability, property location, financial goal , purpose of purchase , market valuation and many more that u need to consider before commit..
It will be very irresponsible if I simple tell u buy or property price will hit bottom or forever go up..
Difference location have difference difficulty and factor to consider

Ok I agree with u on this

Bolded part you are wrong. Even for own stay if market price for that property goes down, there will be problem.

But ayam not financial and economic expert..Don't know how to explain to you. Please google or maybe there will be expert here willingly to explain to you since we got so many "experts" here.

this is the same thing i told them, they told me that house owners will remain unaffected... total BS, seeing your surrounding price goes down and you pay high loans, that is not healthy, like servicing car..

I have to downgrade otherwise u scared like a mouse
都吾知你惊么7

Sekejap saja u change your statement. You dont have pendirian meh?

Buy things sure got up n down mah...3 years ago. I bought my 46" samsung led tv. It was the best model at that time...now u go see got people want to buy it at half the price or not...but I am not affected as I still using it today...

If u buy at 700k n u not servicr it like hell meh? Why only if the property drop price only your installment become like hell. Got to more or double installment meh?

consider it as depreciation lor...

This post has been edited by Tigerr: Jul 30 2014, 11:28 PM

This is got to be one of the most interesting threads around here.

Sharing an article to contribute to the discussion, instead of empty talk lol :
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/features/30...-pressure-.html

bro this one they already know and they dismiss di, they say those increase and burden in bank loans wor daily keluar masuk Starbucks more than monthly loan repayment wor.. they even say not going to change anything with little bit increase at least BLR reaches around 10% then only they start got feeling..

and gentle reminder, many BBB here are cash rich..

unless u opt for fix rate which come with premium % since beginning lo, else u buy prop with referent rate sure cannot escape from this. but some people i saw still stick to their old loan with blr-1.8% eventhough high propbably they could refinance to blr-2.2 or blr-2.3%. I guess this type of people is happy to pay for additional 0.4-0.5% although they have option not to do so.

bear bear...this i agree with u....

if need to worry the 0.25% interest rate...u better worry the credit cards debt first....that one at 18% per annum and come with penalty if late payment or cant make the minimum payment.

yup i still got one loan stays at blr-0.7%....still no intention to go renew it to blr-2.4% yet....i still happy happy for additioanl 1.7%...

I wont limit whether ur current package or refinance to low interest loan more suit as u may have some other planning. Many who stick to the personal loan / credit card debt will easily surpass the impact of this 0.25%.

so, when will it burst??
i saw this thread few months back..
but till now just talk.. nothing happen also..
i want buy property, when it will burst?

Buy when its crash. And soon you can see that.

Its bursting already. Go out and buy now if you want. Subsales property price now no one buy. You can negotiate a 20% discount from desperate seller.

Else, wait until 2015 or 2016 where more house are being VP-ed.

But if you wait for another 2 years, more buyer will be out like you. Hahaha... so its a tricky situation.

What I think is, go out and find your house every weekend when you are free. Set appointment with agent. Do this until 2015 so that you know the pricing and the house that you like. You don't just wait here in this forum.

I got one BLR + 0.75
Another BLR + 0.25

Your credit worthiness must be quite bad, 18% only imposed on those bad payer..

Me get 13.5% only, coz every month cleared.. Bank hate me, never let them earn interest...

Show them photo of your car key & watch, maybe they consider to give you some discount..

Credit worthiness no good ??

PM me your house adress, when i burst i'll sent you flyers..

U stick ur butt at forum never go out looking for house never ask around for prices, expect govt to put a 100" X 100" billboard in front of your house to inform you, market burst ??

add me too in the list... prompt payers... they sipeh jialat... sumore whack their cash back like Ocbc 1%, Hsbc amanah weeked cash back, citibank points...

like simply whack also can get rm50 saving.. pay bills , internet.. phones.. 4 house electric already around rm700, astro 2 biji RM140, internet 4 biji already RM140 x4= 580, water bills cheapest RM100 4 biji, handphones bills 8 biji = 600-700, insurance and etc... really many... of course help family pay one they reimburse, after that bank in back.. got rebate lor...

and yes, cc are really painful in interest... 18% and rm100 late payment monthly.. dun play play

maybe he want to sit in his chair in from of his pc until his butt burst only he realise the house price burst ... hahaha

Oh...u r charging at 13.5%?

Myself I am getting -1% rebates net. Afterall, I always have advance payments in my balance...I shouldnt do this actually as I lose interest opportunity lost by paying them extra every month but sometimes just malas to check the due date n if forget to pay kena charge penalty n kena call them to waive it. Wasting phone calls which may cost me RM1 for such calls...

Good bro. You're like me. Too much cash currently. Some more 2015/2016 will have property crash. Good time to accumulate more property

it burst d??????!!!!!!!!!
slow down or burst??

if burst i be the 1st to lost my job leh..

i tot if property market kaboom/burst..1st hit will be on property/development/construction sector..
then Bank.. then everyone else also suffer wor...

from my view in current market.. more like slow down only leh..
sorry ya.. my view might be wrong as i am still a new in property..

slow down/burst.. what ever you want to name it la. When slow down, it means nobody buying.

When nobody buying, property drop price.

I prayed that you lose your job (I assumed that you're in construction/property) so that we can buy cheaper property. You can find other job. No problem one.

Since you're in construction/property, so I guess you earn a lot for the past 3 years. So losing your job is ok. I think property will pick up again in 2017

come on.. asking for real reply here la..
dun troll me la..
i have no saving one la.. if no job, makan roti lo...
worker/kuli where got earn a lot one.. investor/boss earn a lot la..

slow down and burst is different story la...
is like sick vs dead

I start scouting properties overseas now. Local market I ll temporary stop for a while. Entry cost for overseas property are higher n I need to accumulate more bullets to attack next year or 2016. It ll become my retirement plan for passive steady income.

If u expecting or foresee a burst coming. U better start preparing n not sit n wait die.

U worry u ll lose your job. Better find another job which ll be more stable even though if it is lower pay than what u receive now as it ll give u a more stable n secure future when burst really come. Of course u should look for better n higher pay one lar first. Dont stay n remain in your comfort zone n when burst come, u have not enough time to react. People may call u stupid now but when hard time comes, then only u feel it yourself n not those who call u stupid.

Aiya, you troll us, I troll you la. Hahhaa... cheers!!! I know you're very rich.

Cool...

Very sick waste more money (long term medical fees), dead only one time tarpao close case...

This is serious kopitiam & people expect serious answer..

If market slow down people talk about when it going to burst, when market burst people talk about when would it recover, if already burst what's the fxxking purpose talking about it, hey Elvis Presley is dead, Leslie Cheung is dead, Anita Mui is dead, anyone wanna know ??


All type of joker here..

dude, i am asking is the market burst already?? not asking when it will burst leh..
cause someone said market burst d ma...

aiyo, want me explain my post meh?? can go read la...
why your replying to his reply by addressing me in it??

may be my english too bad.. cannot understand you

working class where got rich..
if i am rich... i dun need to wait for market to burst lor

Was chit chating with a developer friend who developing a condo in Johor n some bankers about the increase in toll n vep by 1 Aug n how the China developer going to do n what they gonna to do about the oversupply of condos there. What they told me is something that I ll never read in forums or media.....what are insiders people going to do as they ll not sit there wait die....

wow!!!.... must be great info. Are you going to share here??????? !!!!!!

True. Preparation for the worse is what developer in JB should do. (but still I think R&F Princess Cove will be best seller )

If someone said burst....it mai burst lor. If someone said it is slow down, it mai slow down lor....what r u trying to ask n expecting? Burst or no burst...u got own eyes see mah...many people defination of burst is different mah.....to me, toilet pipe burst also can said burst mah....

Will not share here as it ll attract lots of attacks later...

Whatever it is, first thing to know who they are targetting to buy the properties n if no such people or buyers, they may have to workout something to create those buyers....how to create, leave it to your imagination....

When gor gor leslie going to be alive again???? U talked like after burst it ll not be recovered....after burst, we ll talk about who lose their job, who ll jump from 14th floor, who last time said wait burst want to buy properties but no where see him now,

bubble bubble buble pop pop pop:

Hong Kong Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle

“Hong Kong has successfully cooled down the market in terms of transactions and turnover,” said Raymond Yeung, senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Singapore has been more effective.”

Hong Kong began introducing a string of progressively stronger measures starting in November 2010, including a flip tax of 15 percent on properties resold within six months, and a doubling of stamp duties to 8.5 percent on properties worth HK$20 million ($2.6 million) or more.

It also slapped a 15 percent tax on purchases of homes by non-local buyers and companies, a policy aimed to deter mainland Chinese buyers whom many Hong Kong residents blamed for soaring prices.

After climbing 115 percent since January 2008, prices started dropping in the second quarter of 2013. The share of mainland buyers of luxury properties, defined as homes worth more than HK$12 million, fell from 34 percent in the third quarter of 2012 to 13 percent a year later, according to research by Centaline Property Agency in Hong Kong.

they use the term less BEARISH lehhh

Singapore’s correction looks set to continue. After prices slid for a third consecutive quarter to June, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam this month predicted further declines.
source:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/s...n-t-handle.html

come on lets tell daddy why malaysia property market will never down? othr countreis downing dii...



Housing Market in France in ‘Meltdown’ After Hollande Rent Caps

source:

Housing starts fell 19 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, and permits -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/h...-rent-caps.html

to DDD's more to come rolling in.. our Malaysia is better, GST coming wahhahaaa

burst in many countries.. Malaysia hard.. many cash rich and holding powers so kuat no need to drink "Ali cafe", lets see how is their claims true?

overseas busted... sure or not? Sing -ka pore?

Nope, London and New York still very well

I never said overseas busted leh.....I only said I start scouting leh...

Property in Johor quite tempting but if I wanna invest there the more secure one I think will be landed type..

For high rise as said R&F might be the big time player as he own the most prime location but I still have some reservation for china developer.

Yup. My professor student told me now is time to go whack London n US properties. But I got no money to go leh...

oops...my 10 year US visa expiring this year....go next year got to do new visa again...

look at hong kong flip tax and stamp duty

sipeh pain.. 20 million property= 2.6 million tax..

direct conversion 10 million MYR= 1.3 million MRY, flippers will go crazy..

eh.. so consider burst or not Malaysia or going to burst? friendly nations burst/pop

U r not in that league. So u not understand geh....

if gst comes..u go buy rm2000 smart phone. Gst is 120. That is sibeh lots of money to people in etiopia leh...etiopia people ll go crazy leh

If no money u better borrow from ah long , if u miss this cycle I think u have to wait for another 10 year again..
U can't go wrong there with all big name .

This question u need to ask those who has the crystal ball....unfortunately I dont have one...

I no money go there to look see look see lar....need go there few trips oh...

really need some time for public to absord the 6%, once ok then good, but if they cant blend in the 6% to their lifestyle... surely economic hit..

oi Malaysians, believe a bit, i found Malaysian never take thing seriously till it hit them on the face baru mati.. strong nations like Hong Kong, Singapore, UK, France, China also got hit.. belivein a bit... "later mati katak"

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jul 31 2014, 12:30 PM

My bet will go to slow down...won't burst...
Our bubble is too small or never form yet how to burst.....
Situation in Middle East quite tense and we are friendly nation , still accepting a lot of application for MM2H from Middle East.
Not even mention a lots korean is retired here as well..I personally know that korea embassy want gleaneagles and price court to hire a korean translator to look after they citizen as they have a lots of korean patient

our bubble is small compared to them, but our foundation (earnings and business are smaller), that y bubble small, many out there are with heavy burden..

China come here and blow the bubble in Johor..

That's why I said if u feel something bad coming. Start do something n not sit there wait die. I already started doing lots of preparation 2 years ago....the longer the bubble dont burst...the stronger my foundation ll be...have u done anything or u just sit there wait n see???

Don't worry, Malaysian still will continue with they lifestyle even have to absorb 6%
Worse come to worse don't buy property but rent..property can't bring out show off ma..
Majority money will go to lifestyle instead of solid asset, that the trend now.

Our largest consumer will prefer spend money on gadget, flirting, clubbing, fancy car, branded and property will,be last for them. Good news to property owner, future we have more tenant ..

Property price might not go up like before but for future I think we have more tenant

Now only dumb asx spent 2K on smart phone, why spend 2K when u can get china brand at 1/3 of the price, same specs

U see Huawei, Lennovo, Xiaomi is breathing behind Samsung/apple neck.

brother , this is going to be a long game...

Thought u r same league as 20millions Hong Kong property tychoon ?? now few air ticket also cannot afford ?? where's your private jet Gulfstream Jet ??

this CHina brand cheaper in price, going to kill the big giants very soon... US and Korea owayls packging no1, and fees are high high..

Lu rakyat mati katak, ada aku kisah ??

the younger generations dont believe they will fall easily until it come in front of them...

younger generations include (25-40).. they livin on debt and inflated foundation, our salary are not supposed to met the 1st world country enjoyment, yet we are with limited salary compared to other nations, how we do that? DEBT

Good military training centre

Brands like apple build the whole ecosystem - mac, itunes, appstore. Without these trendsetters the cheap knockoffs wont have a reason to exist ler. If something like apple moved to a new direction you can bet those cheaper brands will scramble to follow. If they kill the giants they only kill their own future, unless they really innovate and lead the pack. Theyre not just flashy packaging lah. Sorry i digress

Possible.. look at nokia..where it is? And poor sony..a step back..

ARGENTINA DEFAULTS
Business Insider By Linette Lopez
8 hours ago
View gallery
.cristina fernandez de kirchner
REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

Argentina has defaulted.

Argentine Finance Minister Axel Kicillof delivered the news to the world from Argentina's consulate in New York City on Wednesday.

Kicillof had just finished a meeting in which he and a delegation from The Republic failed to satisfy the demands of a group of hedge fund creditors negotiating over $1.3 billion worth of debt owed to them for over a decade.

"The Argentine Republic has filed for a stay [on payment] with Judge Griesa... The Judge decided that if the vulture funds said there could be a stay there would be a stay," said Kicillof. "The vulture funds were not willing to grant the stay."

Without the stay and without payment, Argentina is in default.

"Notwithstanding any claim to the contrary, Default is not a mere "technical" condition, but rather a real and painful event that will hurt real people: these include all ordinary Argentine citizens, the exchange bondholders (who will not receive their interest ) and the holdouts ( who will not receive payment of the judgments they obtained in Court)," said Daniel Pollack the Court's appointed mediator.

Pollack also said he would continue to make himself available for more discussions.

In Argentina's defense, Kicillof repeated the same argument that the administration has been making for months — that paying the "vultures" would be a violation of Argentine law. That's because there is a clause in The Republic's bond agreements called the RUFO — Rights Upon Future Offering — clause. It expires in 2015.

According to RUFO, if Argentina negotiates better terms with some bondholders, all bondholders have a claim on those terms. That would open the country to up to $15 billion worth of payments. Earlier this month, the Court didn't buy that, and refused Argentina's request for a stay on payment until negotiations could be worked out (ideally with a payment to NML due in 2015).

They werent killed by cheap chinese copies in fact the rug was pulled from under them by trendier more expensive premium products.

I worry they scared to yam Cha with me after I show that
When yam Cha?? I have get the info of Korean car n citizen watch via google, hence we can communicate with same standard

This post has been edited by zuiko407: Jul 31 2014, 01:48 PM

Nokia killed by cheap korean copies, now cheap china "copies" killed the no longer cheap korean.