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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 09:44 AM)
Just to share with u all what I found last night.

Public debt/gdp 55%
Corporate debt 95%
Household debt 86%

Total debt = 236%
Latest gdp = 1000b

If interest rate = 6%
Total debt installment per yr = 142b

If gdp = gross profit = 1000b
14.2% goes to interest installment.

household income = rm5000/month x12 x 6 mil household = 360b
Household interest installation = 1000b x 5% x 86% = 43b = 11.9% of total household income
*
11.9% on interest. If add principal should less than 30%. So disposable income more than 70%. Still good right?
commander571
post May 4 2014, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 09:57 AM)
Wow.

bank fat cat lo

142b/20bank each 7b

Whack whack whack bank share.
*
Good point! Bank will earn like a fat cat if economic recession doesnt happen!
SUStikaram
post May 4 2014, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 4 2014, 11:03 AM)
11.9% on interest. If add principal should less than 30%. So disposable income more than 70%. Still good right?
*
If add principal average should be 40%right. Bcs some loan hp. personal .cc loan higher interest rate.there is this study post here before.

After tax n epf. So disposable income 20%

Next year 5% go gst

balance only 35% for Bkt. Petrol. Toto. Bir. Kid pocket money. Angpow. Donation. Iphone. Movie. Karaoka. Ouch cry.gif

if blr go up. Worst lo. Need to borrow from relative lio. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by tikaram: May 4 2014, 10:13 AM
bearbearwong
post May 4 2014, 10:18 AM

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banks also has sales target especially collection department... non prompt payments will reduce their collection target..

remember the property is being speculated... cars are not...

by foreclosing the property inflated ones... banks are actually pulling the property market down .ie correcting if defaulters many...

now, banks want money, once auction you will see many takers around be it runner, agents, buyers and etc.. the price auction price is affordable..

remember property price today is because ppl cant afford not because they cant buy..

with new buyers from foreclosed property... price are lower and most time reflective of the property at that point of time.. and banks loans are more often that not hit 90%..

good point to note government can force banks to do so if they are serious in correction..
zuiko407
post May 4 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 09:44 AM)
Just to share with u all what I found last night.

Public debt/gdp 55%
Corporate debt 95%
Household debt 86%

Total debt = 236%
Latest gdp = 1000b

If interest rate = 6%
Total debt installment per yr = 142b

If gdp = gross profit = 1000b
14.2% goes to interest installment.

household income = rm5000/month x12 x 6 mil household = 360b
Household interest installation = 1000b x 5% x 86% = 43b = 11.9% of total household income
*
Personal loan is the one increased the most


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oOoproz
post May 4 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 10:44 AM)
Just to share with u all what I found last night.

Public debt/gdp 55%
Corporate debt 95%
Household debt 86%

Total debt = 236%
Latest gdp = 1000b

If interest rate = 6%
Total debt installment per yr = 142b

If gdp = gross profit = 1000b
14.2% goes to interest installment.

household income = rm5000/month x12 x 6 mil household = 360b
Household interest installation = 1000b x 5% x 86% = 43b = 11.9% of total household income
*
shocking.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 10:11 AM)
If add principal average should be 40%right. Bcs some loan hp. personal .cc loan higher interest rate.there is this study post here before. 

After tax n epf. So disposable income 20%

Next year 5% go gst

balance only 35% for Bkt. Petrol. Toto. Bir. Kid pocket money. Angpow. Donation. Iphone. Movie. Karaoka. Ouch cry.gif

if blr go up. Worst lo. Need to borrow from relative lio. tongue.gif
*
If no money should eat roti + kaya. Buy samsung sign up 2 yr contract come with free phone. Cut down all unnessary entertainment. Worst case, eat banana for breakfast till dinner. Jimat dan sihat...
SUSNew Klang
post May 4 2014, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 4 2014, 10:18 AM)
banks also has sales target especially collection department... non prompt payments will reduce their collection target..

remember the property is being speculated... cars are not...

by foreclosing the property inflated ones... banks are actually pulling the property market down .ie correcting if defaulters many...

now, banks want money, once auction you will see many takers around be it runner, agents, buyers and etc.. the price auction price is affordable..

remember property price today is because ppl cant afford not because they cant buy..

with new buyers from foreclosed property... price are lower and most time reflective of the property at that point of time.. and banks loans are more often that not hit 90%..

good point to note government can force banks to do so if they are serious in correction..
*
Want to ask. Why banks' reserve price for auction properties can sometimes be same or higher than the advertised price in property classified ads? So how can bargain hunters can good value for money at auctions.
commander571
post May 4 2014, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 4 2014, 10:18 AM)
banks also has sales target especially collection department... non prompt payments will reduce their collection target..

remember the property is being speculated... cars are not...

by foreclosing the property inflated ones... banks are actually pulling the property market down .ie correcting if defaulters many...

now, banks want money, once auction you will see many takers around be it runner, agents, buyers and etc.. the price auction price is affordable..

remember property price today is because ppl cant afford not because they cant buy..

with new buyers from foreclosed property... price are lower and most time reflective of the property at that point of time.. and banks loans are more often that not hit 90%..

good point to note government can force banks to do so if they are serious in correction..
*
Ur coconut balls told u these? so many speculations in the discussion...Car is not being speculated...therefore u shud buy more in future!
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 4 2014, 10:18 AM)
banks also has sales target especially collection department... non prompt payments will reduce their collection target..

remember the property is being speculated... cars are not...

by foreclosing the property inflated ones... banks are actually pulling the property market down .ie correcting if defaulters many...

now, banks want money, once auction you will see many takers around be it runner, agents, buyers and etc.. the price auction price is affordable..

remember property price today is because ppl cant afford not because they cant buy..

with new buyers from foreclosed property... price are lower and most time reflective of the property at that point of time.. and banks loans are more often that not hit 90%..

good point to note government can force banks to do so if they are serious in correction..
*
Every company should have someone responsible to collect debts to maximise cashflow and not with the purpose to make the customer bankrupt.
Pulling down the prop price do not benefit the bank, gov and economy. It may not benefit you as well. Dont be so naive that you can pick the dead chicken when market crash. Most likely u will also lost your job and bank not willing to lend u money.


bearbearwong
post May 4 2014, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ May 4 2014, 10:25 AM)
Want to ask. Why banks' reserve price for auction properties can sometimes be same or higher than the advertised price in property classified ads? So how can bargain hunters can good value for money at auctions.
*
Good to know you have ur answer " sometime".. reserve price are determined by valuers .. valuers report write what then that is the price..

majority case are below ad prices... some reserve price are quite same as forced value..I.e the most bottom it can hit..

if reserve are high very rare case unless hot properties ..and etc.. mb the valuers has some benefit di that y report high.. ask agents they know very well.. they can help you to mark up loan price.. they also bring diwn the price.. sure they know valuers right?
commander571
post May 4 2014, 10:52 AM

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I m sure there are a lot more actions goverment can take if they intended to pull down the properties price...i just dont understand why they wanna hurt their own butt after spending billions to improve the infrastructure in kv...
gspirit01
post May 4 2014, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 4 2014, 10:34 AM)
Every company should have someone responsible to collect debts to maximise cashflow and not with the purpose to make the customer bankrupt.
Pulling down the prop price do not benefit the bank, gov and economy. It may not benefit you as well. Dont be so naive that you can pick the dead chicken when market crash. Most likely u will also lost your job and bank not willing to lend u money.
*
I m not a fan of crash as well. But crash does help economy in long run.

To reduce debt/gdp:

Method 1:

Increase gdp, and make gdp grow faster than debt grows.
(Not happening in malaysia, as loan grows faster)

Method 2:

Reduce debt by
A. Crash, so investors who buy dead chicken will hv lower loan amount, hence reducing debt. With this, bank bankrupt the debtors and write off debt.
Or
B. use the saving to retire debt, but reducing countries ability to handle crisis.
Or
C. Slow price drops, both dead chicken pickers are happy, and the debtors won't go bankrupt. It is a balance between A and B.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: May 4 2014, 10:58 AM
SUStikaram
post May 4 2014, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 11:55 AM)
I m not a fan of crash as well. But crash does help economy in long run.

To reduce debt/gdp:

Method 1:

Increase gdp, and make gdp grow faster than debt grows.
(Not happening in malaysia, as loan grows faster)

Method 2:

Reduce debt by
A. Crash, so investors who buy dead chicken will hv lower loan amount, hence reducing debt.  With this, bank bankrupt the debtors and write off debt.
Or
B. use the saving to retire debt, but reducing countries ability to handle crisis.
*
All my friends like crash too much.

they all retired with fat FD said crash bring more opportunity.

Crash finished the weak one n make strong one stronger
got crash only got more up ma. It happen thousand times since 100,000 years ago.
gspirit01
post May 4 2014, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 11:00 AM)
All my friends like crash too much.

they all retired with fat FD said crash bring more opportunity.

Crash finished the weak one n make strong one stronger
got crash only got more up ma. It happen thousand times since 100,000 years ago.
*
That will explain y rich got riches and poor got poorer.
commander571
post May 4 2014, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 11:00 AM)
All my friends like crash too much.

they all retired with fat FD said crash bring more opportunity.

Crash finished the weak one n make strong one stronger
got crash only got more up ma. It happen thousand times since 100,000 years ago.
*
Will u reserve one unit for our bbw taiko during the crash?
tongue.gif
SonicKimi88
post May 4 2014, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 11:03 AM)
That will explain y rich got riches and poor got poorer.
*
"Sad but True" sad.gif
Maneki-neko
post May 4 2014, 11:07 AM

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Yes! I welcome market crash too! But been waiting since 2008..... Some analysts say the global market will sure crash this year... we'll see cool2.gif

QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 11:00 AM)
All my friends like crash too much.

they all retired with fat FD said crash bring more opportunity.

Crash finished the weak one n make strong one stronger
got crash only got more up ma. It happen thousand times since 100,000 years ago.
*
gspirit01
post May 4 2014, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(SonicKimi88 @ May 4 2014, 11:05 AM)
"Sad but True" sad.gif
*
Learn how to be "happy but true". tongue.gif
cherroy
post May 4 2014, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 09:44 AM)
Just to share with u all what I found last night.

Public debt/gdp 55%
Corporate debt 95%
Household debt 86%

Total debt = 236%
Latest gdp = 1000b

If interest rate = 6%
Total debt installment per yr = 142b

If gdp = gross profit = 1000b
14.2% goes to interest installment.

household income = rm5000/month x12 x 6 mil household = 360b
Household interest installation = 1000b x 5% x 86% = 43b = 11.9% of total household income
*
The major fear is always public debt especially for Malaysia that economy has big chunk contribution that come from gov, as well as plenty of big GLCs.
A 1.5 million gov servant is a major economy force (in term of spending power that drive the economy).
Somemore gov budget is in deficit situation, means more debt needs to be raised to service the old debt.

Corporate debt if earning money, aka corporate is making profit, no issue of repayment. A debt that can make a profit is a good debt.
Household debt, if the person is earning income that can support the repayment, no major issue.

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