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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 10:24 PM

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few things I learn today.
1) Major bank in china is owned by gov. Only major and big corp can access to this banking, majority of sme and individual (including prop buyers) need to borrow from shadow banking ( also known as Ah Loong in M'sia). China gov will make sure the core banking system will not collapse.
2) Indonesia central bank has increased interest rate by 1.75% since last year, however, Thailand drop 0.5% (this % if not wrong) in the same period.
3) Although the unemployment rate in US has improved, but the jobs created are temporary or contract jobs. More quality jobs ie permanent jobs are required for long term substantiality. As a result, Feb need to postpone its plan to increase the interest rate. However, QE is ending soon, time to increase rate by then?
4) Market has adapted to the QE tapering. Share market no longer react negatively compare to its first announcement in May 2013.
5) Detroit may be bankrupt, but its residents actually have the lowest levels of debt in the country.


bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(topearn @ May 3 2014, 10:31 PM)
Just a basic degree (2nd class upper) plus professional qualifications.
Someone just posted definition of household debt (Thanks Showtime747) -"Household debt % = total household debt / GDP x 100%".

I think quite a lot of people will not know this definition of household debt.

5 sentences is a long essay to U ? U left school after Standard 6 ?
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living.

by taking household debts to GDP, what does it mean? 100% mean very bad?
If I apply the equation to my own household, will it be my total household debt over total household income per year?
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 10:38 PM)
Juz to share ~

1st) household debt is very basic ~ I'm an IT/tech savvy guy, even i know that ~

2nd) household debt 86% meaning every household only has 14% disposable income

3rd) low disposable income -> less spending -> no business -> no companies -> no jobs -> no $$$ pay installment

u get the picture?
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with the definition of GDP, your 2nd point on 14% disposable income don't think is right.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 10:51 PM)
The major problem is the high debts in society mean more money pay to bank monthly rather spend like buy banana which generate higher GDP.

high GDP good or low GDP good?
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but developer built the house (final goods) and sold to residents. Isn't it increase the GDP? GDP increase no good? GDP increase faster with debts or without debts?
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 10:55 PM)
GDP = market value

meaning all the products and services we produced ~ tats y we goto work to produce those ~
lets say market value 100% but actually 86% ~ u pinjam only ~ u belum pay ~
so u left oni 14% tat actually turn into income ~ where u can spend on GSC, LV, Samsung and Apple.
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the debts take years to pay back, 14% only correct if the debts need to pay back within 1 year and GDP refer to household income.
the car manufacturer get paid 100 cars when they produced and delivered.

This post has been edited by bcpbeancounter: May 3 2014, 11:01 PM
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 11:01 PM)
Provided we all pay in cash n still have money to buy more banana tongue.gif
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do you mean if pay via loan, the GDP lower? but developers get paid 100% (ignore the retention sum) when they provide VP.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 3 2014, 11:01 PM)
They use GDP to compare country to country. Malaysia household debt as a % of GDP is very high compare to our neighbours. So the financial risk is also higher compare to those countries. But usually the number is compare to savings as a % of GDP too. Malaysia gross savings as a % of GDP is quite high
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that's why we cannot just rely on 1 ratio and conclude that the debts is too low or too high. I think this ratio is just an indication, nothing much. if we are to take total debts over GDP, it will be few hundred % I guess as I think commercial debts are even higher compare to household debts.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 11:07 PM)
no ~ the percentage is in real time,  current household debt/current market value * 100%

it doesn't matter how long is ur loan tenure
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I understand this. but my point is 86% household debts to GDP does not mean 14% disposable income.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 11:14 PM)
yup ~ GDP is not personal income but is a "products & services" from everyone ~

which you need to sell them to get cash but if 86% of them is on loan ~ u oni get 14%
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NO. once you delivered your goods or provided services, you get 100% paid.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:31 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 11:19 PM)
But if the country household debts very high ho.
Bank scare to lend more.
This will also cause credit cranch.
Mean u n me no money to buy banana n i will not grow more banana.
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this one you are right. But when credit crunch will come? You have the crystal ball? or maybe hantu pisang can tell you. tongue.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 11:32 PM)
So what is the household debt to GDP hits and exceeds 100% of the GDP? This will only mean that the average Malaysian household is carrying debts as much as its income.

I think this part made it clear right?
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No...my total debts is few times higher than my annual income. Can I suggest that the writer also not too sure of how GDP is calculated? Haha...
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 11:38 PM)
maybe the products u produced 90% goes to ur boss ~ you only take 10% as paycheck ler ~

well ~ it happens to everyone except bosses ~
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of the 100% service I provide to my company, I get paid 74%. 26% go to the sucker.
bcpbeancounter
post May 3 2014, 11:45 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 3 2014, 11:44 PM)
Maybe your ouput just 10% only leah.

The rest 90% you rob from your subodinate. tongue.gif
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this is called team work! icon_rolleyes.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 3 2014, 11:59 PM)
MLM !!! pretty sure!!!
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only MLM need team work? shakehead.gif shakehead.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 3 2014, 11:49 PM)
Wah! High income individual spotted.
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 3 2014, 11:52 PM)
Is this multi level marketing? Or senior? I dun tink so MLM.. MLM dun offer till 74% profit.. ur company make how much? 26%?

Thought you said bank dun borrow to you liao? Dat y cant buy more?
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I am ordinary working class sit in office everyday. Bear bear refer this at 70%. haha...
in Malaysia very easy to hit the highest tax bracket of 26% personal income tax. I don't think my income is high, of course I don't say I am poor la. haha...
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 12:11 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 4 2014, 12:07 AM)
Hami product? I forever living manyak use.. one shot salary plus commision can get 20k .. 30k.. hmm...yum yum
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I am not MLM. this is not my cup of tea.
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ May 4 2014, 12:05 AM)
I don rob my teammates ~
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wa lao...every project also need team work right? unless you are captain America.
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 06:48 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2014, 05:08 AM)
In loan agreement, bank has the rights to recall the loan or ask borrower to increase collateral anytime without giving any reason. In 1997, banks did recalled loan (from those in npl) and told borrowers to increase collateral (from those in doubtful), and any reason why it won't happen again?
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Another thing i learn yesterday is gov learn from mistake. Things happen in 1997 should not repeat because foreign reserve have increase significantly for asian country compare to pre 1997. Expert say one ha...i dont even know what is foreig reserve. tongue.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ May 4 2014, 09:44 AM)
Just to share with u all what I found last night.

Public debt/gdp 55%
Corporate debt 95%
Household debt 86%

Total debt = 236%
Latest gdp = 1000b

If interest rate = 6%
Total debt installment per yr = 142b

If gdp = gross profit = 1000b
14.2% goes to interest installment.

household income = rm5000/month x12 x 6 mil household = 360b
Household interest installation = 1000b x 5% x 86% = 43b = 11.9% of total household income
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11.9% on interest. If add principal should less than 30%. So disposable income more than 70%. Still good right?
bcpbeancounter
post May 4 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ May 4 2014, 10:11 AM)
If add principal average should be 40%right. Bcs some loan hp. personal .cc loan higher interest rate.there is this study post here before. 

After tax n epf. So disposable income 20%

Next year 5% go gst

balance only 35% for Bkt. Petrol. Toto. Bir. Kid pocket money. Angpow. Donation. Iphone. Movie. Karaoka. Ouch cry.gif

if blr go up. Worst lo. Need to borrow from relative lio. tongue.gif
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If no money should eat roti + kaya. Buy samsung sign up 2 yr contract come with free phone. Cut down all unnessary entertainment. Worst case, eat banana for breakfast till dinner. Jimat dan sihat...

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