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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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bearbearwong
post May 16 2014, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 16 2014, 04:03 PM)
greedy?
*
Prop investment is good in a pace b4 not this pace.. wen owners agents whack the privce so high above.. they at end kill themselves..

they are mere greedy.. in d past or even now 50k to 100 gross profit is still profit.. sadly the margins changes to feed agents and greedy owners.. expected profit is now50% above..
timesrun
post May 16 2014, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 16 2014, 04:10 PM)
Prop investment is good in a pace b4 not this pace.. wen owners agents whack the privce so high above.. they at end kill themselves..

they are mere greedy.. in d past or even now 50k to 100 gross profit is still profit.. sadly the margins changes to feed agents and greedy owners.. expected profit is now50% above..
*
Yeah, clever...let them put higher first... haha why you tell them.. laugh.gif doh.gif
bcpbeancounter
post May 16 2014, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ May 16 2014, 04:10 PM)
Prop investment is good in a pace b4 not this pace.. wen owners agents whack the privce so high above.. they at end kill themselves..

they are mere greedy.. in d past or even now 50k to 100 gross profit is still profit.. sadly the margins changes to feed agents and greedy owners.. expected profit is now50% above..
*
QUOTE(timesrun @ May 16 2014, 04:15 PM)
Yeah, clever...let them put higher first... haha why you tell them..  laugh.gif  doh.gif
*
nobody pointing a gun on you to buy right? why you bother? malaysia still a willing selling willing buyer market right?
bcpbeancounter
post May 16 2014, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 16 2014, 04:05 PM)
Lu cakap setengah hari, didn't see u mentioned any facts & figure also yawn.gif

Malaysia black money is second highest in the world after China.  whistling.gif
*
what is the black money impact to the prop market?
Anon_1986
post May 16 2014, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 16 2014, 04:05 PM)
Lu cakap setengah hari, didn't see u mentioned any facts & figure also yawn.gif

Malaysia black money is second highest in the world after China.  whistling.gif
*
The illicit flows is mostly not black money, don't be fooled by the propaganda. The bulk of the illicit flows are transfer pricing outflows to avoid tax, with one of the world's largest recipients, Singapore right next door.
TSicemanfx
post May 16 2014, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(timesrun @ May 16 2014, 02:44 PM)
I am sailing my boat while looking all the sozai buying with DDD campers can?  I sell you some unit from developer you want??  laugh.gif  shakehead.gif
*
How many units you have?


timesrun
post May 16 2014, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 04:45 PM)
How many units you have?
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I got many units in hand. You sure you want?? laugh.gif
TSicemanfx
post May 16 2014, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(timesrun @ May 16 2014, 04:51 PM)
I got many units in hand. You sure you want??  laugh.gif
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You can pm me when you decide to offload at rm150 psf.

timesrun
post May 16 2014, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 04:53 PM)
You can pm me when you decide to offload at rm150 psf.
*
Oh..that mean very high possibility will drop to 150psft la.... laugh.gif icon_rolleyes.gif icon_idea.gif
TSicemanfx
post May 16 2014, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(timesrun @ May 16 2014, 05:02 PM)
Oh..that mean very high possibility will drop to 150psft la....  laugh.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif    icon_idea.gif
*
During bull run, price could be irrationally high. Likewise during bear run.

Rm150 psf is still above construction cost.


timesrun
post May 16 2014, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 05:12 PM)
During bull run, price could be irrationally high. Likewise during bear run.

Rm150 psf is still above construction cost.
*
Wow, It is GOOD that you know the answers.. nod.gif
SUSjolokia
post May 16 2014, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ May 16 2014, 04:35 PM)
The illicit flows is mostly not black money, don't be fooled by the propaganda. The bulk of the illicit flows are transfer pricing outflows to avoid tax, with one of the world's largest recipients, Singapore right next door.
*
I am not talking about those news u read on newspaper, Internet or RPK MT.

I am referring to those real people I know using black money to build properties & buy properties.

Their income do not follow the norm of statistics, in fact many China buyer too buy out property using illicit money aka proxy for corrupted govt official, do you know some very famous notorious name r today developer ? many taiko r big time flipper ? in fact best way for money laundering is thru property.


ManutdGiggs
post May 16 2014, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ May 16 2014, 04:22 PM)
what is the black money impact to the prop market?
*
Maybe 2nd to china means china drop malai drop???

I dunno. icon_question.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post May 16 2014, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ May 16 2014, 04:05 PM)
Lu cakap setengah hari, didn't see u mentioned any facts & figure also yawn.gif

Malaysia black money is second highest in the world after China.  whistling.gif
*
Yr greatest "Strength" is Copy & Paste
Yr greatest "Weaknesses" is Paste & Copy

Are you a photostatting boy in a stationary shop? brows.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post May 16 2014, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 03:56 PM)
Sub prime crisis in the u.s and subsequent qe, euro crisis brought low interest rate regime and flood of money to the market which explain why assets price is inflated. Hence, qe tapering and interest rate rise will have impact on inflated property market.
*
You are indeed slapping the face of those DDD Taikors in the past, anyway, the are history now laugh.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: May 16 2014, 06:14 PM
Showtime747
post May 16 2014, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ May 16 2014, 03:47 PM)
Actually my view is that timing cannot be predicted, only the general trend can be reliably identified. People should diversify because the future is always less certain than you think it is. The exact manner that central banks responded to the subprime crisis gave us our current property market. What's relevant is also BNM's response to their monetary easing. If they made different decisions or executed poorly, you may have lost big on property instead of made big.

Those who recognize that meteoric rises and devastating crashes are more unpredictable than they appear will choose to diversify rather than gamble on uncertainty. It's fine to hold a bit of property, even today, as long as you also have other assets. They will miss the meteoric rises but they will also avoid devastating crashes.

Permabulls who choose not to think always make money if the tide swings up. Permabears who choose not to think also make money if the tide swings down. Only one can be lucky at a time.
*
Very fair comment thumbup.gif

I think both the seasoned BBB and DDD here have other types of investments (at least for me). Properties should not be their only choice of investment. It would be silly if they put all their money in only 1 type of investment vehicle

But I think half of my passive investment is in properties though. Property has been kind to me all these years tongue.gif
Showtime747
post May 16 2014, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 04:07 PM)
You will be surprised how many hedge funds are advised by academicians. Some professors in the U.S are worth over $100m.
You got example and statistics of how many % of professors are millionaires in USA ? Any links ?

I know none I can see in malaysia got rich to the tune of RM100m by doing just statistics

QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 04:07 PM)
Except those who bought to stay, how many flippers still hold properties bought in 2009?
You and I will never find out. Just like you think flippers with no holding power accounts for 10% or more in the market will never be found out


QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 16 2014, 04:07 PM)
The issue is not with economists but politicians. How many politicians are willing to pop the bubble or listened to economists?
*
That is exactly why the economists will not get rich in malaysia. And why DDD will forever waiting for the perfect weather before they set sail tongue.gif
SUSjolokia
post May 16 2014, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 16 2014, 06:12 PM)
Yr greatest "Strength" is Copy & Paste
Yr greatest "Weaknesses"  is Paste & Copy

Are you a photostatting boy in a stationary shop?  brows.gif
*
Lu copy pun taklak, Paste pun taklak, in fact apa pun taklak,

Only cakap kosong & wish everyone below you. doh.gif

Better don't tell u my occupation or else u fell depress about your good self. laugh.gif


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/629f5c40-d98e-11...l#axzz31sCKuabn

China property downturn would be painful but salutary

If financial Armageddon were visited upon China, the country’s banks would emerge from the rubble with little more than light bruises. That, at least, was the conclusion of a recent stress test conducted by the central bank.

In the very worst case, the People’s Bank of China envisaged bad loans quintupling in a flash. But it found that, even amid such carnage, banks would retain capital buffers equivalent to 10.5 per cent of their assets – a comfortable margin of safety. “Our country’s banking system has a strong ability to withstand economic shocks,” it said.

Investors were not exactly persuaded, though. Chinese bank stocks have continued to drift downwards since late April, when the stress test results were published. Listed banks have price-to-book ratios below 1, implying that investors believe their assets are worth less than their stated value – a remarkable situation when the banks are still reporting double-digit profit growth.

More than anything, this chasm between regulators and investors stems from divergent views of the banks’ vulnerability to a housing downturn. With Chinese real estate starting to look shaky as transactions decline, a longstanding theoretical debate is becoming more real.

The official stress test will prove far too optimistic. Chinese banks are not going to collapse, but the defences built around them are flimsier than Beijing thinks.

Regulators have been fond of making two arguments – both of which will be found wanting in a downturn. One is the apparently limited exposure of China’s banks to property. Direct lending by banks to property-related companies is just about a quarter of their balance sheets – significant but hardly overwhelming. For Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong, 17 per cent of their total loans are mortgages, 6 per cent are loans to developers and 3 per cent go to construction firms, according to Credit Suisse.

But a focus on direct lending alone is misleading. Non-standard credit products – including investments funnelled via shadow banks – form 5-20 per cent of Chinese banks’ assets, many of which are tied to property. On-balance-sheet loans classified as corporate debt are also linked to the property market, as state-owned enterprises from railway builders to shipping companies have big real estate arms and use ordinary bank loans to invest in them.

The second argument trumpeted by regulators is the lack of leverage in the Chinese property market. Homebuyers are required to make downpayments of at least 30 per cent to obtain mortgages and banks typically value homes at about four-fifths of their sale price. Lu Linyong, chief executive of Zhongding Property Appraisal, notes that this would thus require house prices to fall 44 per cent before mortgage holders were in negative equity. China is clearly a world apart from the US before the subprime crisis.

A fall in property prices would lead to a decline in collateral value that would force banks to increase provisioning, and rein in lending. Companies would be able to borrow less and investment would fall – causing a further fall in property prices

But leverage is still seeping into the system. Property developers, desperate for sales, have started promotions in which they cover two-thirds of mortgage downpayments – meaning buyers are paying just 10 per cent up front. Buyers are also drawing on credit from other sources, including consumer finance.

A more systemic concern about leverage is the way in which property and land have underpinned the rise in debt throughout the Chinese financial system.

Mortgages form the collateral for about 40 per cent of bank loans. A further 10 per cent of loans are backed by land. As Nicholas Borst of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues, this could make for an ugly downward spiral: a fall in property prices would lead to a decline in collateral value that would force banks to increase provisioning, and rein in lending. Companies would be able to borrow less and investment would fall – causing a further fall in property prices, and so on.

There are other ways in which a housing correction could hit the banking sector. Land sales account for nearly half of local government revenues. These will suffer in a property downturn, thus crimping fiscal spending. Property is also the dominant savings asset for households. Falling housing values will therefore weigh on consumption.

But in one important respect, a property downturn would be a welcome development for Chinese banks. Economies are never static, and that is especially true of one such as China’s that has barely reached middle-income status. The degree to which the Chinese economy has become reliant on property is distressing but it cannot remain this way forever. The sooner it ends, the sooner China’s banks will be able to find a more balanced recipe for future growth.

Simon Rabinovitch is the Financial Times’ Shanghai correspondent

SUSUFO-ET
post May 16 2014, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 16 2014, 06:15 PM)
Very fair comment  thumbup.gif

I think both the seasoned BBB and DDD here have other types of investments (at least for me). Properties should not be their only choice of investment. It would be silly if they put all their money in only 1 type of investment vehicle

But I think half of my passive investment is in properties though. Property has been kind to me all these years  tongue.gif
*
Wat does investment portfolio diversification means? Hard to define.

- Allocate the money evenly into stock mkt, money mkt, trust fund, property, gold etc?
- Only invest in stock market but allocate the funds into different sectors?
- Only invest in stock market but covers local and overseas mkt?
- Putting money in various type of currencies account?
- Only invest in Unit trust but park the monies with different fund managers?
- Solely in Property investment but :-
A) Dfferent sectors?
B) Long term rental play and short term capital gain?
C) Local + overseas mkt?
D) Different product category?
etc

All the above are a practice of diversification to me. cool.gif


SUSUFO-ET
post May 16 2014, 06:32 PM

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Joined: Sep 2010


QUOTE(jolokia @ May 16 2014, 06:27 PM)
Lu copy pun taklak, Paste pun taklak, in fact apa pun taklak,

Only cakap kosong & wish everyone below you.  doh.gif

Better don't tell u my occupation or else u fell depress about your good self.  laugh.gif
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/629f5c40-d98e-11...l#axzz31sCKuabn

China property downturn would be painful but salutary

If financial Armageddon were visited upon China, the country’s banks would emerge from the rubble with little more than light bruises. That, at least, was the conclusion of a recent stress test conducted by the central bank.

In the very worst case, the People’s Bank of China envisaged bad loans quintupling in a flash. But it found that, even amid such carnage, banks would retain capital buffers equivalent to 10.5 per cent of their assets – a comfortable margin of safety. “Our country’s banking system has a strong ability to withstand economic shocks,” it said.

Investors were not exactly persuaded, though. Chinese bank stocks have continued to drift downwards since late April, when the stress test results were published. Listed banks have price-to-book ratios below 1, implying that investors believe their assets are worth less than their stated value – a remarkable situation when the banks are still reporting double-digit profit growth.

More than anything, this chasm between regulators and investors stems from divergent views of the banks’ vulnerability to a housing downturn. With Chinese real estate starting to look shaky as transactions decline, a longstanding theoretical debate is becoming more real.

The official stress test will prove far too optimistic. Chinese banks are not going to collapse, but the defences built around them are flimsier than Beijing thinks.

Regulators have been fond of making two arguments – both of which will be found wanting in a downturn. One is the apparently limited exposure of China’s banks to property. Direct lending by banks to property-related companies is just about a quarter of their balance sheets – significant but hardly overwhelming. For Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong, 17 per cent of their total loans are mortgages, 6 per cent are loans to developers and 3 per cent go to construction firms, according to Credit Suisse.

But a focus on direct lending alone is misleading. Non-standard credit products – including investments funnelled via shadow banks – form 5-20 per cent of Chinese banks’ assets, many of which are tied to property. On-balance-sheet loans classified as corporate debt are also linked to the property market, as state-owned enterprises from railway builders to shipping companies have big real estate arms and use ordinary bank loans to invest in them.

The second argument trumpeted by regulators is the lack of leverage in the Chinese property market. Homebuyers are required to make downpayments of at least 30 per cent to obtain mortgages and banks typically value homes at about four-fifths of their sale price. Lu Linyong, chief executive of Zhongding Property Appraisal, notes that this would thus require house prices to fall 44 per cent before mortgage holders were in negative equity. China is clearly a world apart from the US before the subprime crisis.

A fall in property prices would lead to a decline in collateral value that would force banks to increase provisioning, and rein in lending. Companies would be able to borrow less and investment would fall – causing a further fall in property prices

But leverage is still seeping into the system. Property developers, desperate for sales, have started promotions in which they cover two-thirds of mortgage downpayments – meaning buyers are paying just 10 per cent up front. Buyers are also drawing on credit from other sources, including consumer finance.

A more systemic concern about leverage is the way in which property and land have underpinned the rise in debt throughout the Chinese financial system.

Mortgages form the collateral for about 40 per cent of bank loans. A further 10 per cent of loans are backed by land. As Nicholas Borst of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues, this could make for an ugly downward spiral: a fall in property prices would lead to a decline in collateral value that would force banks to increase provisioning, and rein in lending. Companies would be able to borrow less and investment would fall – causing a further fall in property prices, and so on.

There are other ways in which a housing correction could hit the banking sector. Land sales account for nearly half of local government revenues. These will suffer in a property downturn, thus crimping fiscal spending. Property is also the dominant savings asset for households. Falling housing values will therefore weigh on consumption.

But in one important respect, a property downturn would be a welcome development for Chinese banks. Economies are never static, and that is especially true of one such as China’s that has barely reached middle-income status. The degree to which the Chinese economy has become reliant on property is distressing but it cannot remain this way forever. The sooner it ends, the sooner China’s banks will be able to find a more balanced recipe for future growth.

Simon Rabinovitch is the Financial Times’ Shanghai correspondent
*
Since 2010, I hv posted >1,100 photos sharing and diagrams in LYN Property forum, if you hv guts and balls, make sure you never copy a single copy of my posting, otherwise you are a real useless fella in my eyes. wink.gif


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