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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 11:17 AM)
If u and yr UUU buds r confident in the market?.... I suggest ALL in la..... drool.gif
Better than wasting time posting here right? brows.gif
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We already reaped our rewards and basking in the sun. Today i am too poor according to the bear theory.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 27 2014, 11:21 AM)
I agree that subprime will not happen in Malaysia and we will not be like US as well as our parameters is not the same as US. Malaysian banks are more stringent in loan approval compared to the banks in US. So we shall not use the word subprime for Malaysia.

What I believe is that the current property price is not sustainable based on my previous post and calculation as well.

Another issue is that there are investors out there whom I know that have very very high leverage. They use tenancy agreement to show to bank to have higher loan amount or additional loan. (I do not want to speculate if the tenancy agreement is real or not; or even if the figure stated inside is real or not) So with those documents, some banks (not sure if most bank accept tenancy agreement as source of income) loan based on that as well.

So now I'm curious if these group of people can be classify as subprime?

There's a lot of factor will determine what will happen. Of course not all place will DDD and definitely not many place will UUU as well.

By the way, everyone has their own point of view and their own analysis. So best is just understand the whole thing and share point of view. I don't see arguing anything here will change anyone's mindset
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Alright even if what u say is true which is invstors who over leveraged according to you, it wont be a significant high number maybe 1%, maybe lesser than that. And u know what? Most banks are more afraid of fraud issues rather than subprime because the loan given are just too stringent.

Now in the US, these practice are universally standard for the banks there. Which is giving high loans to buy properties to poor people who likes to spend time on forums.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jan 27 2014, 11:24 AM)
If already reap rewards then got bullets to go in FULL SWING right?
ALL IN LA...... PUT YR MONEY WHERE YR MOUTH IS..... cool2.gif
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Already put laa, already got my return. I already nick my name Amaya. When ddd ask me not to put 3 years ago, i still put and wow look at my rewards.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 27 2014, 12:56 PM)
Ehh.. last I check u say u want to hold and still hold right and say got ppl offer u leh.. u say u dun want sell leh just last week lehh.. now sell liao.. reap profit liao.. name I check d S&P .. or I do land search see.. transfer di ir not agent..
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Emm i am reaping the benefits of buying it before it increases and holding it. Yes i dont want to sell. No need when sunway velocity is 1m.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 27 2014, 01:53 PM)
Good oh.. I see u mean launcing time grab di.. cheap cheap.. still sustainable.. even repayment.. just if vacant for quite sumtime even with new launcheas price my calculations will crystalize into real.. u going ti be making loss.. lower margin..

u see u dun hold it forever if not sure loss and no investors want to make a loss.. at certain time u will let go just waiting perfect storm or waterwish.. 750k or 650k amanya 2 room.. for d next 5 years.. really no go..and couple with yearly prop increase it easily shoot up to 700k. Right..

In d mean time.. u will bleed if vacant... those who intend to buy at this flipped price.. ur marginal losses will be greater.. there is no way u can rent out a 2 room studio for 3.5 k.... in maluri area.. even 2 k ( assuming dude buying at 450k ) also difficult..

dude I tink plan to loss the money he earn just to prove us wrong.. in future many more location are nearby train station..  amanya still need a walking distance thou.. passing by old shops jusco.. pizza hut ( sumtime can drop by buy MCD) ...
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Dude i dont need to prove u anything laa. I know what im doing. U can just do nothing. It is safer. And during launch time DDD say it is overprice and bubble too.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 27 2014, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(robert82 @ Jan 27 2014, 10:16 PM)
Maybe, but you need to look closely, places like Kajang, Bangi and Semenyih is supporting the surrounding area and quite a huge population is working in Seri Kembangan, Putrajaya, Cyberjaya.

Please bear in mind for maybe 30-40% of the population, the central is always KLCC, cause they work there.
But how many people actually work there?
For others who work in Putrajaya, Cyberjaya, our central is Putrajaya, Cyberjaya.

So, a house in Bandar Utama is unattractive to us, in terms of travel and distance, but a house in Semenyih, Kajang, Bangi is super attractive.

What suits person A might not suit person B and vice versa.

Add the fact the southern didn't really have viable / nice township, suddenly the emergence of townships in Southern KV gives choice and options to those staying/working around this area.
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Good. Thats what i said. Kajang got affordable landed house around 400k. That price is very right. Definitely no bubble. Anyway manage to rent out my unit at above 2k++ just now for information of some hardcore DDD people here. Now no need to worry installment for that unit.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 28 2014, 08:49 PM

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Just wanna add when i share my real experience of what i get in return from Amaya, DDD people claim that I am lying..come on!! They are just too negative but then claim they are being realistic...when i am telling real live events that is happening in my life and they are the ones who are being truthful but i am lying...

Then moderator delete that part of the comment where i finish him!!! Hey no one uses that phrase anymore? Finish him??

Yup 3 years ago DDD people say not to buy Amaya coz there is a bubble, i didnt listen, i bought anyway..now i regret not to convince more of the DDDs not to buy with me, and thats the truth. Btw the DDD i am saying is not in low yat forum but my real life friends.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 28 2014, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(Wiredx @ Jan 28 2014, 09:11 PM)
You make it sound like your friends failed in life for not buying amaya
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U know what, i rub it in their face everyday. Not failed in life, failed in taking opportunity that is in front of u. Too afraid of taking risk with all these bubble news.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 28 2014, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2014, 09:09 PM)
Bro, its different already now compare to 3 years ago. Not a time to be hero  sweat.gif
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I know but i think kajang landed 400k is a good buy. Subsale la dont aim for those recently launch condos. I mean dont say there are no properties that u cant afford when there is. I am not saying its u who said that, i mean other people in the forum
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 28 2014, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 28 2014, 11:14 PM)
Everyone has their own strategy and risk profile and risk appetite. Therefore, I only generalise on the majority based on the EPF report and statistics.

5.3 million active contributors with salary below 5000 to benefits 1% increment for employer portion

Based on the same year 2011 report there is about 6.2 million active EPF contributors

Although based on old report for 2011 which I can only find online right now, there is 6,262,832 active EPF contributor. Based on the news report that there is 5.3 million contributor which will benefits 1% EPF increase in contribution by employer for 5000 and below salary. Therefore I conclude that there is only:-

(6,262,832 - 5,300,000) / 6,262,832 * 100 = 15.37% who is making above 5000 per month

Generally assume that there is increment and adjustment within the last 2 years and therefore there is 20% of active contributor to EPF which is making 5000 and above per month. So based on this figure alone, the affordability for property beyond 500-600k is only within the reach of 20% of salary earner.

I do not have the statistic on how many self-employed, business man and so on. Even there is lets say the figure is 10%. (This part is purely speculation by me)

So in the end, based on that statistic, I truly felt that that property (residential) has now gone beyond the threshold of general public. I also felt that the upside to the trend is limited right now based what I mentioned above.

I have yet to mentioned that those who is rich, super rich or mega rich which usually form 5% of the top tier of the population which has tons of money to buy cash for any luxury property and any property they want which I felt (personal opinion) that they won't even bother with property that we are looking at.

Also there is a lot other factors like external economy, currency performance, FDI, inflation and so on.

Although what I said sounds negative to general UUU investor, but please do acknowledge that this is some facts that we shall look at as well. I will not say there is overall bubble in property investment, there is some indicators that the uptrend might not last long enough especially for those who enter into the market within the last 2 years.

This is based on my own analysis. I welcome feedback by anyone on this as I want to get some insights on what is the factor which they think otherwise.
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Yes yes yes u are right about the not many people who has salary higher than 5k but husband wife join loan have u consider? Each couple will want a property and they combine their income to be affordable.

I talk about population increase all the time. My parents have 5 kids. When they bought this house it was 100k. After 30 yrs this 5 kids all hunting for properties in KL too. I mean the demand is increasing 5 times in 30 years for one family. But this is one family, how many families are there in KL itself? Then u have to compete with people from Johor, kelantan, sabah etc etc all over malaysia who wants a part of KL as their own.

Location location location...good location will always have demand. My mind is thinking it is very hard for prime property to ever fall. Just stagnant. If fall maybe 10% but wont be as a big crash.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 29 2014, 06:58 AM

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QUOTE(MishimaZ @ Jan 29 2014, 12:29 AM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Damn sure many believed you when most in iProp was advertising for rent lesser than RM2k.... many believed in you for sure thumbup.gif !!

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Damn straight!! Many got green in envy, got a beautiful condo of with lush environment with seconds walking distance to LRT, so many antique shophouses so Malacca-like for Cuti-cuti Malaysia, many foreign expats love such places because damn convenient and walking distance to the greatest banking hub in city centre la!! Walaueh!

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

No!! Those are really bad buy!! My parent's RM750k Mahkota Cheras shophouse only manage to rent the ground floor at RM3.5k.... Now upper floors vacant and just do charity work, cannot la!! No return at all when people wanna buy at RM1.4m!!! Expats do not want our place because it is a crappy area for banking, economy only depends on banks and bankers lah, other businesses do not generate economy prosperity one!

For own stay, walau.... Already over RM500k for a way bigger and confortable sized landed, but cannot la, must join the crowd ma! Die also must buy Amaya area lah... Now only RM500k for 719 gigantic square feet! Guaranteed expats rental one, RM2.5k monthly rental yo!! After some time, can go up RM3k, then RM4k, walau! So sad that most missed the damn boat cannot be rich like you now, including me... cry.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Haiya... want regret meh... Don't la!!! Many people believe jor la! Don't pissed off please... Not many Cheras people here what's more knew how the area like, that's why like these people DDD you know!! So sellable that so many advertisements trying to sell of many of their units!! Nobody buy takpe, next year increase 20-30% some more because sure got takers la!! That time economy maybe bolster by folds, maybe 50-60% increase also possible, since KLCC is so damn near!!  Hehehehehe.....
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Write more write more..funny la. The length people want to do to prove me wrong. U can say anything u like i got my booking deposit of 2k+++ already. Dunt want to say how much exactly d rent, or people know which unit i hold. Anway if dont believe me, who cares. I am basking in the sun. U notice that only u n the bear condemning me on Amaya? Coz some people here knows that Amaya did achieve a rent of 2k. Furnish laa of course.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 29 2014, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Jan 29 2014, 11:33 AM)
If you refer back to the few post that I posted, I'm mentioned mostly on new properties prices within the last 2-3 years and the trend of it. If buy 10 years ago, then no problem la. Even combined income for those below 5k salary, how much can they afford for the instalment portion? That is assuming both husband and wife is working. What about kids expenses? Travel expenses? Car expenses?

Rental play? Rental against property price is at all time low lar.
Yes demand is there. And demand has pent up quite a lot. Demand will only remain as demand if no one can afford. Problem is most developer is profit oriented and they only prefer building high end condo's with nice concept for luxury living. How many property project which is cater towards medium cost? There is huge demand for medium cost but every new projects is now catered to high cost. And do you know why developer prefer high end condo? Take a guess on their profit margin after every single cent they spend. Margin for high end units is the most profitable.

CODE
In fact, I really do hope PR1MA project does take off very successfully to fulfil the demand of medium cost housing for those who cannot afford high end luxury properties. If that is on track well, by then we would have oversupply of properties. But I'm sensing that this project will not materialised so early. I'm speculating that the developers is very much against this development as this will cause their profit margin to reduce as the buyers pool will significantly reduced. I also speculate that the big developers is lobbying to the government to hold on to the PR1MA project as well. I also believe that PR1MA will only be on track if there is some sort of properties bubble on the higher end segment where developer has already make enough money and laughing all the way to the banks.
*This is strictly my personal opinion* Anyway I'm not eligible for PR1MA
Well, it goes 2 ways. Either I lament of miss opportunity and I wont make so much, or you lament with financial difficulties if bubble pops.
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I refer to the post u referred to me. Maybe u are right. New launches are too expensive. Then buy subsale properties at location that u like if can afford. I am eyeing one in particular in KL. Maybe 1m++. But i am keeping that to myself.

Anyway, heres what a friend told me a month ago. He is from Kedah. He inherited a house in Sungai petani. The house was worth 100k 10yrs ago. Now it is worth 110k. He lamented why is it that KL increasw so much? Now he realized that as he is working here, he need decent house but cant afford of course. He has a house in kedah, he can live in kedah but he dont want too. Not many things to do to work. Anyway what i am implying is of course location. Everybody wants a piece of KL. And why not that Kajang area u buy a landed house worth 400k like somebody here said last time in the previous previous version of the thread? It is a good price actually, but not my cup of tea, I hav to be in d city.

I think Kajang got a lot of potential right now. But i dont want to buy there.


SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 29 2014, 07:48 PM

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Oh yeah just to add, bubble? What bubble when you can buy a house for 110k in sungai petani. Ok i am not sure if is landed house or apartment. I should hav ask my friend that.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 30 2014, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(b00n @ Jan 30 2014, 06:36 PM)
I thought I remember seeing it in the budget. But can't seem to locate that piece now.
My bad if I am wrong.
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Doesnt make sense for foreigner can only sell to foreigner. Let say the foreigner buy a 100k house in KL. Then he wants to sell and a malaysian wants to buy at 150k. "Oh cannot, i can only sell to foreigner". So the situation doesnt make sense that a local cannot buy a house in his own country because he is not a foreigner. Right?
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 30 2014, 09:43 PM

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I think locals can still buy from foreigners but foreigners can only buy from foreigners. That would make sense.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 31 2014, 06:42 PM

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Aiyoon want to compare to sgpre again. We touch this over and over and over and over...

Malaysia to sgpre of course we have very cheap properties..example gievn bukit beruntong bubble bust there..example i gave before, sg petani got 110k house, so whats the problem?? Haih..

Compare la kl with sgpre. Sgpre land scarce, u think prime land in kl so big meh? Sgpre all leasehold. Kl land got freehold u DDD know that or not? Conclusion we are cheaper, dont care about salary, dont care about excahnge rate, dont care about public transport. Very obvious land in malaysia are very affordable. I am talking about Malaysia Malaysia. And KL FREEHOLD land is very cheap compared to sgpre. So what does that mean? That is why there were sgporeans trying to buy Amaya.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Jan 31 2014, 07:13 PM

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Next thing the DDD will recycle the subprime argument again saying Malaysia can be like US...just wait for it.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Feb 1 2014, 05:47 AM

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QUOTE(kamilnu @ Feb 1 2014, 01:51 AM)
I stay in JB and watch Channel News Asia everyday since i got fed up with Malaysian channels. I know more or less what is happening insingapore. Singapore still have many land. The only thing is that thegov. releases the land slowly and by stages to developers to build executive condominiums or EC they call it. Some are freehold even.
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Doesnt matter. Malaysian land are still cheaper. Freehold land in sgpre? Tell me where in sgpre and who bought it.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Feb 1 2014, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 1 2014, 10:40 AM)
"Miss the boat", sound familiar from gold discussion thread especially before the peak and the following crash.

May be "Miss the boat" is an indicator that the bull run is coming to the end.
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Maybe the bull has come to an end..but will it crash? No. If drop maybe a bit but no crash. I believe the price is right on the prime areas.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Feb 1 2014, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 1 2014, 11:03 AM)
Should be fair for all of ppl to voice up the opinion. Anyway, all the points highlighted must be supported by reliable statement. This forum is good if we share out info, experience n sources. Final decision is depend on individual.
Really appreciated for those share info with the justified statement n experience

Dun just imagine n plug the figure from sky n ask for more info... The answer never come bk. tq
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And dont assume anything about me. Ask me i answred truthfully accept p n c stuff like which unit i hold in Amaya.

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