Everyone has their own strategy and risk profile and risk appetite. Therefore, I only generalise on the majority based on the EPF report and statistics.
5.3 million active contributors with salary below 5000 to benefits 1% increment for employer portionBased on the same year 2011 report there is about 6.2 million active EPF contributorsAlthough based on old report for 2011 which I can only find online right now, there is 6,262,832 active EPF contributor. Based on the news report that there is 5.3 million contributor which will benefits 1% EPF increase in contribution by employer for 5000 and below salary. Therefore I conclude that there is only:-
(6,262,832 - 5,300,000) / 6,262,832 * 100 = 15.37% who is making above 5000 per month
Generally assume that there is increment and adjustment within the last 2 years and therefore there is 20% of active contributor to EPF which is making 5000 and above per month. So based on this figure alone, the affordability for property beyond 500-600k is only within the reach of 20% of salary earner.
I do not have the statistic on how many self-employed, business man and so on. Even there is lets say the figure is 10%. (This part is purely speculation by me)
So in the end, based on that statistic, I truly felt that that property (residential) has now gone beyond the threshold of general public. I also felt that the upside to the trend is limited right now based what I mentioned above.
I have yet to mentioned that those who is rich, super rich or mega rich which usually form 5% of the top tier of the population which has tons of money to buy cash for any luxury property and any property they want which I felt (personal opinion) that they won't even bother with property that we are looking at.
Also there is a lot other factors like external economy, currency performance, FDI, inflation and so on.
Although what I said sounds negative to general UUU investor, but please do acknowledge that this is some facts that we shall look at as well. I will not say there is overall bubble in property investment, there is some indicators that the uptrend might not last long enough especially for those who enter into the market within the last 2 years.
This is based on my own analysis. I welcome feedback by anyone on this as I want to get some insights on what is the factor which they think otherwise.
Yes yes yes u are right about the not many people who has salary higher than 5k but husband wife join loan have u consider? Each couple will want a property and they combine their income to be affordable.
I talk about population increase all the time. My parents have 5 kids. When they bought this house it was 100k. After 30 yrs this 5 kids all hunting for properties in KL too. I mean the demand is increasing 5 times in 30 years for one family. But this is one family, how many families are there in KL itself? Then u have to compete with people from Johor, kelantan, sabah etc etc all over malaysia who wants a part of KL as their own.
Location location location...good location will always have demand. My mind is thinking it is very hard for prime property to ever fall. Just stagnant. If fall maybe 10% but wont be as a big crash.