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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Rabel
post Feb 9 2014, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 9 2014, 12:44 PM)
why must wait 2034??? not 2020 geh?
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Hihi wawasan 2020

Rabel
post Feb 9 2014, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 9 2014, 05:42 PM)
Malaysia Chinese population only 22-23% with 1.8% population growth yearly & dropping.

U r right though Property r 99% Chinese game, there were never much of real demand in property,  mostly buy & wait for water fish,  those day flipper can buy from another flipper & still earn, nowadays very susah aleady.

Let them be lah ! Most just wanna tayang their wealth here, genuine rich man usually quiet about their holding,  after spending entire fortune to buy property (some till need to take public transport), or playing properties for 23 years (probably retired or near retirement) the only place they can earn some egoism is here only lah..  ;-D
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Rich ppl got egoism, of coz is no good.
U n BBW chicken feet pun tak ada, oredy egoism. doh.gif doh.gif
Rabel
post Feb 9 2014, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 9 2014, 07:28 PM)
More like orgasm sweat.gif
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Rabel
post Feb 9 2014, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Feb 9 2014, 10:37 PM)
Haha I wish I'm the dev. Most likely I'm oledi goyang LP liao. laugh.gif
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Hihi if u r land owner and let developer to develop the land. U oso goyang LP. biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 10 2014, 08:21 AM)
Once BBW see tis. He will upside down. doh.gif doh.gif .

I justtalon talked to one of my friend from market survey comp ( not so good to disclose his comp name) during cny since he is back to hometown.

Their comp forecast quite same as tis report. Supply vs demand for residential within 3 yrs still ok. Anyway, transaction sure will slow down n price will stagnent or continue increase slowly.

This post has been edited by Rabel: Feb 10 2014, 10:04 AM
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Feb 10 2014, 09:42 AM)
Media is media. I will take it with a pinch of salt  if you read chinese, here is another version with more concrete figures.

http://www.nanyang.com/taxonomy/term/688
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Correct, need to gather more info n only decide next step.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 10 2014, 10:26 AM)
The survey is on certain markets only izzit... and servey is purely on asking price and not tranascted price?

Slow transaction.. price stagnant or increase..
Good transaction.. price go up all d way

in conclusion price go up.. still BBB mode..
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shocking.gif shocking.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 10 2014, 11:16 AM)
Bo comment meh? Haiyoo... got shock bo
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Ur comments Oway make ppl shock mah.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 10 2014, 11:39 AM)
i hope so... possible down 50%... i want to buy.  nod.gif

down 10% is nothing.  biggrin.gif
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Yalo, 10% only. Still a lot of waiting for dead chicken ppl unable to buy.
Got 50% I want to buy too.
rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:55 AM)
Construction industry is less than 8% of GDP, high property price means high loan repayment i.e. less disposable income. After shock period, property price crash is beneficial to aggregate economy.
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Err, just now ppl post nanyang newspaper link abt property. One article show construction overall contribute 10% to GDP.

Which one is correct ??
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 10 2014, 01:06 PM)
I read in Malaysia German Chambers of Commerce website says Construction contribute only 3.5% to GDP leh..donno which is true.

But I think Malaysia  Construction Sector contribute a significant amount to Indonesia & Bangladesh GDP though ...lol Billions be sent back to their country every year ...wakakaka
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Malaysia, Indonesia n Bangladesh are good friends mah. biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 02:35 PM)
As per;
http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/downlo...n_2005-2012.pdf

In 2012, construction contribute 3.5% of GDP of which 25.2% is residential sector.
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maybe the 10% I mentioned just included industries indirectly involved in construction. Such as logistic, anyway not sure coz the link show overall 10% to GDP.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 02:40 PM)
Believe many of those who bought in 2011 have also invested more in 2012 and 2013.

Perfect storm expected in 2016, we ain't see nothing yet.
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Hihi, my last bought in mid 2011.
Anyway, for those oredy earned money from 2009 till 2012 n continue roll bk the money to property in 2012 n 2013. I dun think got any issue to them. If they got proper planning even though perfect storm in 2016 ( I oso predict may be got in first half of 2016). Coz they oredy got lump sum of money on hand.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 02:50 PM)
It's human nature to be greedy. Similar mindset to gambler. Once tasted easy money, then "assume" that they can reap the same so call "formula" to make even more. I knew quite a number of people that sold their existing stocks and pour all into the new stock hoping to gain even more.
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Some go though 1997 crisis. I think they should know the risk in stock market. Really unbelievable.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 03:10 PM)
Yes some went through 1997 and a lot of them that gone bust that time is still quite broke now to worry whether property is going UUU or DDD. What I see now is that a lot "investors" these days did not personally went through that 1997 era and they don't really have much idea of how it is.

Try stepping in new launch venue and you will find most of the "visitors" is usually in their mid 20s to mid 30s to 40. This is of course from my own observation lar.

Well, IF this time did really bust, then it's just another economy cycle. There are bound to have people who will be hurt by that. There are winners and there are losers as well to balance out. For me, I think it is very risky this moment. I'm not a hardcore DDD but the risk to reward ratio is not worthwhile any more for me. The indicators and fundamentals have show signs of weakness and if look into the bigger picture of the whole system, it does looks bleaks to me.
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Yup, I agrees with u. Sorry to say that based on some of the posts n comments. I believe quite of numbers here not go though 1997 n not even go though the best time in malaysia 1992~1993.

That y I mentioned before share can loss till underwear pun tak Ada but property, Watever u loss.... U still got the proprty there.

Dun be surprised in 1992 n 1993. Ah dog, ah cat n ah pig oso can make money in share market. BLR up 11%, ppl still borrow bank money to buy share. Quit job n full time monitor share. Once 1997 came....haziiii


Try to ask those go though tis cycle. Share safer or property safer. Really dun play play lor....
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 03:30 PM)
Provided plan is executed and realized.
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Yup, do proper planning. Dun simply hentam n of coz dun too passive.
Sometimes no "LP" won't make big money. biggrin.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 03:30 PM)
Provided plan is executed and realized.
Few buy property in cash, hence, most need to service loan repayment and having negative cash flow on property, and many unlikely to sustain for long.

Believe current property frenzy is not dissimilar to stock in 1992 and 1993.
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As long as u can service ur loan. Dun be so worry. Land value still there. Land ls lesser n lesser.
Share... U can service the loan or hold. Doesn't mean can come bk.

Y negative cash flow?. Buy property till out of affordability ?. No I dun think so. If hv.. Oso not many.
Negative cash flow becoz share or biz till need to let go property. Yes I agreed.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Feb 10 2014, 04:21 PM)
simple explanation why negative cashflow property is not an asset

if your property is rented with positive cashflow
you lose your primary income ... your loan is still paid by the rental stream. no issue

if your property is not rented [i.e negative cash flow]
you still have you primary income ... your loan is still paid by your primary income. no issue

if your property is not rented
you lose your primary income ... your loan cannot be service ... dead in the water.

the issue is losing primary income during a downturn ... can you weather the dry spell until you regain your primary income.
people sometime is so "full of themselves" they don't even want to take job at half their old pay ... wait for dead only.

it really depend on your primary income power to sustain your loan.
some people primary income is share trading ... so F U loh !!
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That y I said during crisis biz man n those burst hand in share market will put urgent to sell property.
They need cash flow come faster to cover n basically they won't wait for 3 +1 SPA only to settle the full amt or maybe they will ask buyer to pay 50%( example) first during SPA signing. They need cash. Who will hv more advantage in tis case ?. Still cash rich buyer. Right? If wait for dead chicken but no such cash power. Still can excepts very " ONG" lor.


Flippers negative cash flow?.. Where is group come from?. Salary ppl.
Coz the unit can not sell, vacant,... salary can not cover the loan....
Simply question, how many property can they flipping?. If bank loan can approve n still got monthly salary. Mean salary ppl still got the baseline. Should be tight cash flow instead of negative cash flow

Except the guys with tight cash flow still big meat, big car, genting highland then wait for die lar.


Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ Feb 10 2014, 05:21 PM)
Hello Sifus,
I'm a newcomer, I have read like 80% of the comments in this thread.
Noticed the UUU and DDD ppl are just like ppl in casino.
(just learned these 2 new terms lol)

UUU: Enter a casino thinking they are very lucky and can make handsome profit out of it.
DDD: Enter a casino and hope for a very bad luck banker so they can win their bets.
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Got another group. Dun enter forever. No win no lose. biggrin.gif
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 05:29 PM)
Ok. I know of this case. Let's see the scenarios yeah.

"Investor A" assuming staying with parents so no need spend $$$ on his/her own housing. His/Her salary is gross RM 6,000 which after deduction shall be around (RM 6000-348.35-14.75-660=) RM 4976.90

He/She bought a property say in 2010 for RM 450,000. Mortgage repayment is RM 1941.85 (Base on 90% loan, 35 years tenure, 4.6% interest).

So now, the his/her Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is 1941.85/4976.90*100=39%

Then he/she rents it out at RM 1,500 (4% yield).

That would be negative cashflow of RM 441.85 per month. Ok la. No big deal.

--------------------

Now he/she use the tenancy agreement of RM 1500 as income documents to bank. So basically his/her nett income is now RM 4976.90+1500= 6476.90

Based on RM 6476.90, and assume DSR is at 70%, he/she is eligible to take a loan with monthly instalment of (6476.90 x 70%)-1941.85= RM 2591.98 which the loan amount comes to RM 540,594

So now with a new property, his/her monthly instalment will be RM 4533.83 for 2 properties.

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Imagine this particular person with nett salary income of RM 4976.90 have a repayment of RM 4533.83 which left RM 443.07 monthly if the rental income suddenly stop coming in. Just think and see if this person can survive any probability of interest rate hike, vacant unit without tenant or market slightly crash?

There are people like this out there.

And I have not even talk about how genuine is their tenancy agreement (there are chances some of them using fake agreement or inflated rental price). Also imagine those people who leverage on multiple more tenancy agreement to max out their capability. I'm not saying there is a lot of people like this, but I'm very aware that there is a lot people using their tenancy agreement to take higher loan amount.
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Are u loan officer??

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