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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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TScybermaster98
post Nov 26 2013, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 26 2013, 05:06 PM)
The Residence, nearby Plaza TTDI.

Confirmed - just don't ask how I know.  wink.gif
Yes I already shared the info this morning. See my post above.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 26 2013, 05:41 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Nov 26 2013, 05:14 PM)
Well, Bangsar Puteri is close to 30 years of age and still can touch 800psf. wink.gif

It depends on the maintenance of the place, really.

Although for the amount transacted, I'd much rather buy a landed prop tbh.
Yup Bangsar Puteri is 26 years old but for that price u wont get a decent landed in Bangsar with the same advantages. Same with Kiara Park as well I guess.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 27 2013, 04:43 PM

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Suddenly gone quiet.....
TScybermaster98
post Nov 27 2013, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 27 2013, 05:18 PM)
After deducting dibs and discount, NSP (Net Selling Price) could be 20% lower than SPA price.

How many people view;
SPA is inflated price and NSP is real price
or SPA is real price and NSP is price drop?

Valuation should be taken at SPA or NSP?  rclxub.gif
I don't think valuation is based on either SPA or NSP price. Its based on a number of market factors and the property itself.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Nov 27 2013, 07:32 PM)
sometimes there isn't much to discuss anymore...both UUU and DDD parties have already presented their points...now is the time to wait only...

so far... UUU camp is winning cuz the bubble burst mantra already going on for at least a few years... smile.gif

results speaks louder than words or discussion...
There are 2 results to be considered here. One is the price of new launches (which is still UUU cuz of greedy developers and herd mentality buyers) and the other is the price of subsales or secondary market which has stagnated in some areas since early this year already. Even in MK, prices of the bigger condo's have been on the decline / stagnating since end 2012.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Nov 29 2013, 09:13 AM)
Pricing psf is very important. anything more than rm900k imo will be hard to dispose if old prop condo unless bigbig sf contra then $/sf is lower. Smaller units  are easier to sell or get loan plus location, location and cencept are playing important roles adding to prop value.
Its not right to make a blanket assumption that any property above 900K will be hard to dispose. The price alone is not the issue here. Its the price vs the location which is more important. If u say 900K in Kuchai Lama yes it would be very difficult to sell but the same price in say Bangsar or TTDI would be reasonable.

Property is all about location. The problem now is that prices of new launches are no longer in tandem with the secondary market of that area. If you see RM650psf new launch prices in Kuchai Lama then u know that investors here would be in trouble if there is a property slump.
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post Nov 29 2013, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(PradaLee @ Nov 29 2013, 09:47 AM)
What do you think cause this mismatch between new launches and secondary markets? If buying from new launches is dangerous, when market corrects, do you think subsales will be spared? In other words, which is more likely: Subsales catching up with new launches prices in 2 to 3 years(of course, new launches prices are assumed to be even higher then) OR new launch prices coming down to subsale levels upon VP ( meaning subsales are quite OK even if there is a correction)?
The unrealistic one will be the hardest hit. In this case it will be the new launches but not all. Only the ones which have been unrealistically priced will be hit. The others might sustain a hit or prolonged stagnation depending on severity of the slump.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(PradaLee @ Nov 29 2013, 10:37 AM)
New launches are now priced at RM700psf onwards e.g Sqwhere(subpar location). Assuming a crisis hit, what will developers do? They will most likely stop launching. Assuming prices for subsale go down 20% from RM600psf to RM480psf in locations like Kota Damansara, at what price will developers price their launching once everything stabilises but have not recovered? Will they price lower than 700psf in areas like Kota Damansara( remember that Tropicana Gardens are at about 1,000psf or more now. If no, how do you expect subsales to fall any further?
Developers can put whatever price they want and usually the herd mentality of ppl will ensure that sales are good. But in the event of a property slump, developers will usually delay launches. Why do u think developers were rushing to launch this year? They know what's coming in the future long before anybody else and that's why almost all major developers with large tracts of land were rushing to develop the land before the crunch.

The developments hardest hit will be those whos investors do not have financial strength to withstand a slump.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(PradaLee @ Nov 29 2013, 11:42 AM)
Yes, developers can put whatever price they want as long as they can sell. After a crash, if launching prices then are unlikely to go below 700psf due to various reasons amongst them land cost or inflation or whatever, then sooner or later subsale supply will dry up as there are no cheap launching.How then can one lose if one were to buy at subsale price now? What is the downside of buying subsale now? I don't care whether those who buy at high prices from developers will suffer later but for those holding on to their poperties purchased through subsale, whats the risk?
It all depends on the entry price for that area. There is no blanket price range. You will only make money or lose money when you sell the property. As long as you have the holding power, it doesn't matter if property prices in your area drop 50%. Sooner or later prices will recover. Property prices are always in cycles. There will be up's and downs. The rule of thumb is never buy at the peak or just before a slump (which is now).

Right now, banks are very conservative in their valuations of property prices because nobody knows how bad the impact of the slump is gonna be. Nobody knows if prices will correct 5% or 25%. But areas with a glut of condo's will be hardest hit.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:17 PM)
Of course, if you really know whether now is the peak then you will be rich then....

I recall in 2008 when the US crisis hit. I remember everyone said get ready, house prices gonna crash, we are gonna have a global recession soon, don't buy.

No one anticipated helicopter Ben.

Well, lets just say those who did not bought at 2008, 09 and 10 are laughing at us now.....

Point is, you never know and you can never be certain...
Why those who didn't buy at 2008-2010 are laughing at us? I bought at that time and im laughing at those who didn't.
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post Nov 29 2013, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:36 PM)
Whoops... I meant those who BOUGHT....
Yes. But u must remember some thing. Who were the ppl who were predicting a collapse in 2008? Were they ppl in the know? Were they seasoned investors? Are the conditions the same now? That's why I started this post. Because the 4 signs before a typical property slump are now complete and in the open for all to see. And like Eddy said earlier, I will keep this thread active for another year and then the discussions here will be proof to those who believed that a slump isn't coming.

Tip: Learn to differentiate the sound from the noise

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This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Nov 29 2013, 01:42 PM
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 29 2013, 01:45 PM)
Haha. I remember following CNN business segment and all business newspapers at the time.

It was so exciting. All the economic professors are so kan cheong like the end times are nigh..biggrin.gif

I mean, I actually look forward to watch CNN business today to see the Dow Jones fall and the US property burst.

Tell me, how do you know who is the expert and who is making noise then when the experts themselves are screeching like lost chickens?  biggrin.gif
I was referring to ppl here in Malaysia. Cant comment on those in foreign countries. Sometimes the man on the street is a better judge because a lot of the economic reports from so called 'experts' are done with a 'udang sebalik batu' concept. Same with developers here in Malaysia. Go ask any of them if there is a property slump coming and I bet u all of them will say NO. Why? Do u really think they don't know? They are merely sustaining their rice bowl a bit longer.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 29 2013, 08:01 PM

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QUOTE(PradaLee @ Nov 29 2013, 07:54 PM)
Of course, nobody wants to buy just before a slump. The problem is nobody knows if the slump is coming soon. Areas with glut of condos is also subjective. I am interested in Kota Damansara/TTDI/Damansara Utama/PJ area. Do you think there is a glut of condos there?
Yes nobody knows but the signs are all there. If ure a smart investor, u will be able to read the signs. Kota Damansara is a glut area and will be hit hard the same with MK and KLCC areas. How badly is left to be seen. TTDI and Bandar Utama are mature areas and usually hold their value well.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 2 2013, 09:45 AM

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Gov expected to announce a 15% hike in electricity rates today. I believe this is just the tip of the iceberd. 2014 is clearly gonna be a very testing time for the economy.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 2 2013, 09:49 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 1 2013, 12:09 PM)
I was in Ipoh looking for a house in Jun this year. General impression I got from the real estate agents was it was still seller's market. No discount entertained when I asked.

Saw an article in today's The Star describing the cooling down now in Ipoh. One agent stated that sales were only 50% compared to 2012. That is quite a big change from what I have heard only 5 months ago. Maybe things were already on the downward trend but the real estate agents preferred to keep the up beat tempo, hoping to keep the industry statistic moving up. Ha.

Also mentioned that many sellers are pushing the agents to sell their houses due to the RGPT starting 1-1-14. Looks like quite a number of buyers there are from the flipper camp. Guess it is too late now as the sales paper work will take months.

Cheerio.
If ure a potential buyer and u talk to real estate agents, they will always tell u its a sellers market. If ure a seller and u talk to them they will tell u its a buyers market. Bottom line is agents will always tell you anything as long as their primary objective is achieved which is to close the sale within the shortest time possible with maximum commission.

A smart investor will never believe everything he/she hears. Learn to separate fact from fiction. biggrin.gif
TScybermaster98
post Dec 2 2013, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(zonefinder @ Dec 2 2013, 09:58 AM)
Though I agree with the motivation behind these kind of behaviour, I don't agree with your general statement above regarding what they will say in sellers and buyers market...at least, not the ones who I know. Many of them are pretty professional and they realise that their credibility is important especially knowing its not a one time relationship thing when they are dealing with investors. Though I agree that one has to do his/her homework and there are numerous sources around to provide information.  icon_rolleyes.gif
Well its a general comment. You are referring to specific agents with whom u have a personal relationship with. These aren't many when u take into account the thousands of agents in the market now. I too have my select few agents who give me real time accurate info on the market but again, these are a rare commodity.
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post Dec 2 2013, 04:24 PM

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15% TNB price hike confirmed. Effective 1 Jan 2014.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 3 2013, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 2 2013, 04:27 PM)
After CNY petrol increase by another 20 cents..... brows.gif
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...er-tariffs.aspx

TScybermaster98
post Dec 4 2013, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(hondaracer @ Dec 4 2013, 03:38 PM)
Time to increase the rent 😎😎😎, I am increasing my rental for my new tenant for next year

Property developer increasing price😳😳?
My current tenancy expires only in Feb 2015. So gotta wait till then to increase. sad.gif
TScybermaster98
post Dec 9 2013, 09:10 AM

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7 months and only 50% sold and they call that good?

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2013...dy-in-2017.aspx



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