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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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TScybermaster98
post Dec 9 2013, 09:41 AM

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Quite amusing to see property buyers getting excited about paper increases of their perceived property values. I guess this just goes to show how influential property developers have become that the average property investor is now more focused on paper increases rather than actual appreciation.

https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...&#entry65056947

TScybermaster98
post Dec 9 2013, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 9 2013, 09:43 AM)
Everything's relative...

maybe for that class of props at Iskandar region it is considered goodleh...

I mean, not any ahkow ah beng can simply buy multi million props just like that...
Iskandar was built with the sole intention of luring Singaporean investors. But with the recent curbs implemented by the Gov, how do they expect this project to appreciate in future? If I were an investor, why would I pump in RM2 mil for a condo in JB when I can pump that same amount (or slightly more) and get one in the Golden Triangle in KL with much better prospects for capital appreciation?
TScybermaster98
post Dec 9 2013, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 9 2013, 09:49 AM)
Until the HSR is complete, I think singaporeans think that KL is too far....

JB, crime infested it was, is still near to their home base.

If I am singaporean, I will invest in Iskandar.

Likewise I only invest in KV because I know the area and I could manage my investment better.
The key difference is that KL doesn't need Singaporean investors while Iskandar is almost totally reliant on Singaporeans. 70% of the properties in Iskandar bought by non Malaysians were purchased by Singaporeans.

And yes if u were a Singaporean you would invest in Iskandar but would you invest in a RM2 mil (starting price) condo or would you invest in a landed property?

That's my point.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 9 2013, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 9 2013, 10:26 AM)
Aiyah...1mil or 2mil ringgit props are dirt cheap to them mah.... biggrin.gif

huge condos somemore, not like some bird cage HDB flats that could get for the same bucks back home...
Then why is the take up rate only 50% 7 months after the initial launch?
TScybermaster98
post Dec 10 2013, 11:32 AM

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Does anybody know anything about property valuation prices coming down in some areas in KV?
TScybermaster98
post Dec 10 2013, 01:26 PM

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This is another good article share by someone else:
http://www.businessinsider.com/are-you-the...he-table-2011-6

TScybermaster98
post Dec 10 2013, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 10 2013, 02:25 PM)
Here are my contribution to the forum. If you are buying property based on loan this year, my calcs are like this:

1 yr breakeven price: +10%
2 yr breakeven price: +15%
3 yr breakeven price: +21%

(Tis exclude rental income)
For high end prop, end of games!
So what loan interest rate did you use?
TScybermaster98
post Dec 11 2013, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 11 2013, 09:17 AM)
The multi-home group is hoping prop dont drop, if drops, total portfolio drop. Always can rent out cheaper for difficult time if any, but normally they just earn less for disposing prematurely. Some rich cash group can do anything, buy more or rent less or die die hold. Other group is hoping better price down to save and acquire a better home. At the end also hope their prop to go up. It depends who u r and your next agenda according to your capability.
Many ppl don't realize that with every property slump comes many other problems. It doesn't just affect investments but also ppl's livelihood. That's why we should and must prevent property slumps because the recovery can stretch for years.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 11 2013, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(OPT @ Dec 11 2013, 09:40 AM)
Huah...this thread still alive and well...
So, what is the verdict?  brows.gif
I guess nobody will know this soon. Maybe sometime mid 2014 or early 2015? whistling.gif
TScybermaster98
post Dec 11 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 11 2013, 11:17 AM)
While is discussion is ongoing and still waiting for price to come down to your liking, Hillpark Shah Alam is selling well and is going to be the next hot place.

It is a vicious cycle for those not in property.
Which new development did not sell well in the past few years? Rarely have I heard of a new launch that didn't do well. Its not the initial launch sales which are gonna determine if a property development is gonna do well in future or otherwise.

I always use The Twins, Damansara Heights as a key example. Take up rate during launch was very good but see what happened after VP? Despite VP during the height of the boom (bout 3 years ago), today 70% of the units are unoccupied. Original buyers are stuck with the units without being able to sell or rent and many are now resorting to renovating their units in an effort to offload them.

If this can happen to a development in a prime area, what can happen to non prime areas? Yes, property is a vicious cycle for those who aren't smart enough to read the warning signs.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 11 2013, 02:37 PM

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Many investors are just focusing on the sales of the new launches. Not many are looking at the subsale market where the reality of the property market can be seen.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 19 2013, 01:25 PM

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I think alot will depend on the new rate framework that BNM will announce early next year to replace the current BLR system.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 23 2013, 08:47 AM

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Guys, lets face it. We all know the BLR will go up next year but im quite sure we'll only be seeing a max 50 basis points increase which would put the BLR rate at 7.1%. But with the newly proposed BNM benchmark to replace the BLR system, i would think that a max uniform rate of about 4.6-4.7% would apply. This increase is not meant to slow down the property market but to weed out speculators and those who go into property investments with the herd mentality. The real investors would not be affected. With this move, i expect property prices to stabilise and become more realistic. Removal of the DIBS and other measures are meant to curb property developers from having a free reign in raising prices and raking in huge profits at the expense on unwary buyers.

So now i dont expect a property market crash. Probably a slump or stagnation of prices which is quite alright.
TScybermaster98
post Dec 23 2013, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 23 2013, 12:56 PM)
Yes, we can look back after 3 years.  smile.gif

In fact, many posts and topics in this forum are more than 4-5 years.  smile.gif
We will have an idea about a year from now. Dont really need to wait 3 years. biggrin.gif
TScybermaster98
post Dec 24 2013, 08:26 AM

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QUOTE(forever1979 @ Dec 24 2013, 06:22 AM)
yes, the occupancy rate is very annoying.
My fren who stays in a landed in Kota Kemuning, I think he bought the house 4 yrs ago about RM400k plus, move in 1 year ago, i just when there recently, looks like < 50% occupy. and I believe many places is like that.
But the price has just shoot up to RM700K.

It shows that either the seller cannot sell due to higher asking price or some really means for own stay.
but surprisingly there is no auction for all these houses or condo and it show those property owners are really cash flow strong.
When you say price has gone up to 700K are you refering to word of mouth, asking prices, sale prices or valuation prices? Because all 4 are different.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(Jaxisme @ Jan 3 2014, 11:53 AM)
I also can't see a "crash" or price collapse, I think the more likely scenario would be price stagnate.  Unless there is a trigger event (don't know what it is) that scares everyone into holding back.  For price to collapse Banks have to take action and force sell, as most people will not fire sell their properly unless they are being pushed. 

banks will force sell one or two cases here and there but wont do it en masse even when the market turns as they will be killing themselves ... moreover I doubt the govt will let them do it.  Just like how the govt reacted in UK & US "gently" urging banks not to foreclose if possible
I dont think there is gonna be any epic style property crash. But what might happen is a 2 stage property slump. First comes the stagnation and poor rental market. Many of the investors who bought new launches with the herd mentality dont have the financial sustainability to hold their investments if they cannot sell or rent out upon VP. These ppl will then be forced to let go at lower prices. If it is widespread enough, then ull get a slump. And judging by the number of new condo's now which are only experiencing about 40-50% occupancy rates, im sure the situation will get worse in 2015/2016.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 12:32 PM)
Those who is rich and still believe BBB mode please go and ahead and buy more.. stop convincing the youngster to buy your ovetpriced property.. u are just killing them.. you yourself wont buy the landed at 780k.. what makes you tink those ppl below you can afford.. u just like developers just have intentuon to sell off your property invested.. even big boys aka developers apply ABS BRAKE..
Just a side track. ABS brakes don't stop your car faster or in a shorter distance. Its just a mechanism that allows u to manoeuvre without the wheels getting locked up.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 01:26 PM

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Again i ask the question: How many ppl have actually surveyed the secondary property market in KL/Selangor? How many ppl actually know whats happening here? How many ppl are actually looking at completed condo's and gauging how easy/difficult it is to offload the units upon VP?

Many Malaysian investors are just buying based on whatever rubbish property developers feed them. They treat developers as Gods and hence every word they say should be believed. Lets see where these God's disappear to once the slump hits in 2015/2016. biggrin.gif
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jan 3 2014, 02:04 PM)
Do you mind enlightening us what is rubbish and what is non-rubbish ?

Often what's rubbish to you is the gem for others. ( That's why they are buying !).

Without giving specifics, it's hard for me to undertand.  notworthy.gif
Rubbish is still rubbish just that some rubbish is coated to hide the stench.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jan 3 2014, 02:07 PM)
Sounds like you are saying whatever you bought is gem and whatever others bought are rubbish. Kakaka...
Read my earlier post. I used the word MANY which is quite different from ALL.

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