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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(DoomCognition @ Nov 18 2013, 11:55 PM)
A fair assessment, with very valid points. However, please allow me to point out some facts to support the BBB camp (there's no fun if I agree 100% with you, no?  brows.gif  ).

Cost push inflation due to
1.  GST effective starting 2015
2.  Recent petrol price hike, expected to continue to increase as subsidy is reduced
3.  Increase in sugar price, and other basic food items, again due to reduction in subsidy
4.  Foreseeable weakening of MYR, due to US pulling back its money.

Also, do note the following facts:

1.  Authorities are cautious in implementing draconian measures in curbing property price increase, due to the precedent set by US (the effects of a quick decline in property prices is very evident in the housing bubble)
2.  Growth trumps inflation, in almost all macro economic management.

Any comments?  smile.gif
Your 4 points above are correct for escalating inflation but it doesn't mean that property prices will rise in tandem. Actually it would mean the opposite. If ppl's salaries are spent on paying for inflationary increases in living costs, where will the money come from for buying expensive properties?

Don't forget that when inflation goes up, salaries are still stagnant so that decreases purchasing power. If you have limited finances, you would prioritize your spending thus putting expensive overpriced properties out of reach of the general public. And when you have a slump in prices, even those who can afford to buy will treat cautiously and refrain from making purchases unless they are absolutely certain of its future value.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:07 AM

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This article probably adds to the belief that we're heading for a storm. Intensity and duration unknown.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-18/c...ank-crisis.html

TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(cognac @ Nov 19 2013, 09:29 AM)
its been more than 10years I heard this phrase.....

magic words include, bubble, its coming, soon, future, not a lot of people buying, price too high.

in my opinion, as long as market price is same as the bank value, won't be so easy to burst. imagine whole country property price reduce 5%. country lost how many billion?

gov will surely protect it and dampen it.
Its been many years that bank valuations have been less than actual sale prices. That's the root of the problem. In many areas including prime locations like TTDI, bank valuations have been lower than asking prices but most banks still provide loans for the asking price based on the borrowers financial standing.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 19 2013, 10:32 AM)
BNM possible rise of 50 basis points in 2014 is valid only if Fed keep their rate close to 0%. As 0% rate is exceptionally historically low rate; after QE, Fed rate will return to historically norm of 4%.
Trust me, the BLR hike in 2014 is virtually certain. The only issue is the timing. Banks like Maybank are in discussions with BNM to delay the announcement of the first increase to Q2 instead of the planned Q1 increase.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2013, 11:07 AM)
I m quite happy many still believe price will be continue to Up 3 & people continue to Buy 3 while developer continue to Build 3, bank continue loan3, more people Borrow 3, as low BLR will Stay 3 hopefully the household debt go beyond 100% by 2014-2015

Opportunity to grabs cheap properties coming soon..lol

Cybermaster98 why waste time educating them ? just prepare cash & wait for the perfect storm...lol
Tolong menolong sifat yg mulia! biggrin.gif
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(yusiang @ Nov 19 2013, 12:41 PM)
While I agree that there's bubble in our current property market, I think we need to evaluate the landed market and condo market separately. Although DSL in Klang Valley selling for millions(or almost a million) sounds like bubble price, today it actually cost RM350-400k to build a double storey terrace, just for the construction cost only(earthwork/piling/building/infra/etc) excluding the land cost. That's why even government's PR1MA houses or those in  smaller towns have to be priced aboved that.

For condo market, I personally think that there is a very strong bubble(wtf, ppl had to queue for rm800k condo in sentul??). The ignorant young buyers and the herd of flipper-wannabes have pushed the prices way over the sustainable limit, especially the studio units. A lot of investors are ignoring the affordability of local buyers and just betting on rental profitability after the LRT/MRT completion without the consideration that the size of the high-income tenant pool in Malaysia is actually stagnant all these years and there's no sign that it is going to increase in near future.

OK, maybe me too long wind and TLDR. In summary, if you want to buy a landed for own stay, just do it now. If you intend to buy an offplan condo for rental yield, i can only wish you good luck when you got the VP.
The issue is that everybody is looking at new launches and the number of ppl lining up to buy. But how many ppl are observing the secondary market? Are sales as good? Everybody assumes that they will be able to sell after VP as easily as they bought it during the launch. That's the main problem. Not many of the ppl who go around investing in new launches with the herd mentality have any idea what-so-ever- of the situation in the secondary market. They don't understand that the factors which helped them invest in new launches (DIBS, free SPA, free loan fees, no valuation, etc) are not gonna be present during subsale. Plus you will be competing against a few hundred other owners with the same intention. That's how it becomes a buyer's market.

This is what I said in the Fennel thread today.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 19 2013, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Nov 19 2013, 05:16 PM)
What happened to all the UUU campers out there ah?

So quiet wan they all nowadays....biggrin.gif?
All in the Fennel thread. Check it out! Im getting hammered there! biggrin.gif
TScybermaster98
post Nov 21 2013, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Nov 21 2013, 11:15 AM)
the question is if the bubble grows 100% in 2 years...and if it burst and goes back to original price... u don't really lose much also...

example, condo original price 350k, in 2 years goes up to 700k..

bubble burst...lets just assume... can the bubble burst cause price drop to 300k and below? i don't think so...

so even if bubble burst and drop 50%...go back to square one...

what is your thought on this?
I think ppl use the term 'burst bubble' too much. I think the property market in Malaysia is already in a bubble but this bubble is not going to burst. The Government wont allow it to happen. What we will get however is a property slump where you might see prices dropping about 10-15% in glut areas and stagnation in prime areas.

Im not worried about a slump as I have the holding power to withstand this (as long as the BLR doesn't go beyond 8.0%). My real concern is for those investing into property this year especially property which is clearly being priced well above the subsale market price of the area with little or no sustainable factors to support these prices in the future.

Property cycles and the event of slumps do not bring prices back to its original levels. It just eats into the profit margins of investors as long as these investors have a few years of 'buffer' in between cycles to absorb this effect. But new purchasers will not have this buffer leaving them exposed to a slump if they do not have the holding power.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 21 2013, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 21 2013, 03:06 PM)
Neither U.S, Spanish or Greek gomen wish, want or cause  property bubble burst in 2008. Property bubble burst in those countries was largely initiated by many buyers/borrowers couldn't sustain loan repayment.

If loan tenure is over 20 years, statistically, there is over 50% chance BLR will be above 8% at least once.
Nobody said Governments caused bursting of bubbles. But Governments have the power to prevent it from happening by limiting the amount of exposure to non performing loans.

The tenure of the loan is not a concern for investors or the Gov in limiting the risk of a property bubble as investors rarely hold properties that long anyway. That's why the RPGT was increased dramatically for the first 3 years.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 22 2013, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2013, 06:24 PM)
I see foreigner cabuting moneyflies.gif

The foreigner rushing to sell r the flipper, the foreigner rushing to buy is Singaporean who wanna buy a house & stay at JB/Iskandar.

By 2014 hehe .. House grab time.  drool.gif
Yes I think 2014 & 2015 will be a good time for bargain hunters in the secondary market.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 22 2013, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 02:12 PM)
As long as people have jobs, and the economy is in the positive growth region, don't expect prices to fall.
How do u know prices haven't already started dropping? Even bank valuations on property values have been dropping since early this year.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 22 2013, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 02:56 PM)
The problem with you guys is that you only assume that can only be two scenarios that can happen. One bubble burst, two bubble doesn't burst but the truth is what could happen and more likely to happen is stagnation or near zero growth until inflation catches up with the price. Even during the US recession a few years ago that was what happen.

I've said before, as long as interest rates are low, and economic growth is postive people will have very high holding power.
Nope. Read my earlier posts. I never said the bubble will burst. I have always said that there will be price slumps in some areas while other areas will experience stagnation.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 22 2013, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 04:01 PM)
So where's the drop? Show me. If 1 drop and 9 others increase, is that a drop or increase?
Are you referring to actual transactions when u ask about increases and drops? Anybody can put asking prices anywhere but what are the actual transacted prices? Also what increases are u refering to? New launch prices?

Anyway, I mentioned 2014/2015 as the years when we will see drops in some areas and stagnation in others. And I asked you how certain you were that there aren't drops in property prices already since u were so confident of increases.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Nov 22 2013, 04:24 PM
TScybermaster98
post Nov 22 2013, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 22 2013, 03:50 PM)
I've no idea what you're trying to say.
What's your point?

Interest rates were way higher then in the 1980s/90s. That's why house prices are under control. So as long as interest rates are low, people will hold on to it.

And yes during the US recession there was a 1-2 year stagnation. There were tonnes of people in this forum who said house prices will go down and crash but it didn't  You can check this forum 3-4 years ago.
Ive been here since 2010 and every year there will be one group claiming property was gonna crash and another group claiming it wouldn't. Nothing new. But the seasoned investors back then continued investing because they knew what the market was in reality.

But today many of these investors are staying on the sidelines waiting and observing because the facts have shown that we are indeed moving out of a bull market and into a slightly bearish market which can get worse depending on many factors which may come to light in 2014.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is either very smart or stupid.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 25 2013, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Nov 25 2013, 01:05 AM)
hmm, did you buy any this year?
Yup. Transacted 2 in Jan this year but at RM 435 psf while other new condos in the area were going at 550-650 psf. So not too much of a risk I think.

As for your article, I will always take the views of property developers, property agents and anybody associated with developers with a pinch of salt. Why would they wanna ruin their own rice bowl by saying a slump is coming and make everybody hold back? I would always be more inclined towards arguments with facts rather than subjective reasoning.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 25 2013, 08:59 AM

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On a slightly different note, does anybody know which condo in TTDI did Tan Sri Hashim Ali's son die at?
TScybermaster98
post Nov 25 2013, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 25 2013, 11:18 AM)
Unless the statistic is unreliable, fair to declare the bull run is over and we are at about the peak price (but not sure on which side)?
Yes I believe that too. We're about to enter bear market.
TScybermaster98
post Nov 26 2013, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Nov 25 2013, 08:59 AM)
On a slightly different note, does anybody know which condo in TTDI did Tan Sri Hashim Ali's son die at?
Managed to find out. It was at The Residence condo at TTDI Plaza. This condo really no luck. This is not the first suicide / murder at this place. Also 70% empty. Capital appreciation and rental yields stagnant for a number of years already. Damn sien!
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post Nov 26 2013, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 26 2013, 10:59 AM)
This is at odd with demand over supply market, or strong property demand is a mirage?  rclxub.gif
What demand are u referring to? The only strong demand is for new launches because of the herd mentality and the easy ownership schemes out there. That's why I tell ppl not to use new launches take up rates as a yardstick for overall property bull runs. The secondary market has been slowing down from end 2012 already and yet many didn't notice.

Just look at YTL's Fennel. How many of those who queued to snap up units actually did proper research and knew the property market (including cycles) before buying? I dare to bet that it was only a handful.
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post Nov 26 2013, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 26 2013, 02:19 PM)
Buy first then think of sell, something on hand better than non, kiasu attitude.

Having says that the property only going to complete by 3-4 years time, if cannot fetched a lucrative price just hold loh ! Sure can earn just matter of time.

Half Malaysians moving into Greater KL so no worry no takers.

Cybermaster98 save ur breath lah ! just let them be if not later u can't get fire sales..lol
Haha! Ya la!

I just found out that 2 low rise basic units (1356 sf)at Kiara Park condo in TTDI were transacted at 880K and 890K respectively. This condo is 20 yrs old and yet commands such high prices. There are still some very rich ppl out there.

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