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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 3 2014, 02:09 PM)
Just had lunch with a CIMB Bank Loans Head as guess what he told me? He said you could submit whatever Valuation on your property but HQ has already instructed them to approve loans based on how much you are worth (meaning how much you can afford to pay). Lets say you submit your property valuation at Rm700k but he thinks you are only eligible for Rm500k so he will only offer you Rm500k, take it or leave it. This is because the Banks also feel that the price of properties has been overvalued because of flippers and greedy property owners. Up to you on whether you want to believe it or not... but looking at the Loans Approval Rate, there is something to ponder upon.
Wasnt this always the case? As far as i know, there are about 7 criteria that is used to evaluate a potential applicant which directly influences the loan approval.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 3 2014, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 3 2014, 02:21 PM)
Just say that previously they were a bit lenient.  whistling.gif
Actually banks started getting stringent with loan approvals in early 2013 already which was the first indication that all was not well.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 6 2014, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 6 2014, 02:15 PM)
The last 12 months or so have seen a great decline in the quality of late-night entertainment and clubbing in KLCC area with many of the pubs and clubs moving to the outskirts.
I agree to this 100%. I had the distinct 'privilege' of re-visiting the heart of KL for the New Year's Eve Countdown. Changkat was quite all right. But imagine my horror when our group took a walk to Beach Club, Rum Jungle and Modestos. We were completely outnumbered by the waves of Asian foreigners e.g Banglas, Nepalese, Pakistani, etc and mind you these are the working class ppl. The music that the new Beach Club was churning out was something that sounded Arabic. Nothing in English. Same with Modestos and Rum Jungle.

This is probably the last time im ever gonna consider the heart of KL for clubbing. So yes the standard of entertainment in KL has surely dropped to its lowest standards. The influx of foreign labor was really shocking. Even at Monorail stations and along the major roads, Malaysians were virtually outnumbered 10-1.

What has become of our country! cry.gif
TScybermaster98
post Jan 7 2014, 05:19 PM

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Its also quite shocking to note the number of price increases across board this year from food to parking to clothes, etc. I think its complete bollocks for Bank Negara to say that inflation is only 3%. vmad.gif
TScybermaster98
post Jan 9 2014, 09:02 AM

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Yes for this:

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM.../#ixzz2pnbL23eT

TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 10 2014, 10:25 AM)
I've once said 2015.. and i still think we will be hit pretty hard next year if the government still doesn't do anything.
Yes i think 2015 would provide a clear indication of what is to come. But we will see the signs before the end of this year especially with the new property launches. Another indication would be the increase of the BLR rates and the new BLR framework announcement by Bank Negara which is supposed to be in Q1. Already we are seeing numerous businesses raising prices from food to parking rates and many of these increases are quite big up to 30%.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Jan 10 2014, 11:59 AM)
do you think the BLR would sky rocket? or do you think it would go the other way round? I just hope our government could be sensible and help us out.. Singapore home loan interest rate is < 2%..  sad.gif  I'm so sad when all my cousin's were servicing their loan at 1.8% interest rate per annum while I'm servicing a 4.2% interest per annum.. more than double..
Im expecting the BLR to go up by at least 25 basis points this year up to a max 50 basis points (depending on how heated the property market becomes). But i think the first hike of 25 basis points would work in cooling down the property market somewhat which would negate the need for a 2nd hike.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 12:14 PM

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How do we get this topic pinned as IMPORTANT? I think it will be a good reference until 2015.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 05:06 PM)
Nope. applying for new condo loan. quite shocking though
2 questions:

1) How good is your financial standing?
2) Is the 80% of property price based on after discount price?

What condo is this? Easier to provide answers if we know which condo specifically
TScybermaster98
post Jan 10 2014, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 05:26 PM)
I am first time buyer. Been to those 3 banks to apply loan (local bank). Then the loan officer said 90% financing is no more, now maximum is 80% even for first house. I was like shocking and asking since when. Then they said starting this year.

The new condo is in shah alam. Financially i am really good without any car or house loan before. zero monthly commitment
This is new. 3 questions:

1) What is the loan amount?
2) What are the 3 banks?
3) What is the name of the condo?
TScybermaster98
post Jan 11 2014, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 11 2014, 12:45 AM)
Attended the briefing for GST project. The partner form EY expects  the resident property's price likely will increase, reason being the Developers can't claim back GST from upstream supply, therefore it'll factored in their cost into the property price...... true? I don't know.. will see till then.  hmm.gif
Developers will always raise prices of new launches because they arent subjected to valuations. The problem is in the secondary market and those who bought thinking they can flip easily upon VP
TScybermaster98
post Jan 11 2014, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(coolster @ Jan 10 2014, 05:38 PM)
500k.. rhb, cimb, maybank..
What is the name of the condo which u want to purchase?
TScybermaster98
post Jan 11 2014, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(JustcallmeLarry @ Jan 11 2014, 03:24 PM)
Guys may i ask you experts here any chance Property in Penang will have a huge drop this year??? Bcs over the weekend i followed relative to look around for houses in the Tanjong Tokong area like Straits Quay, the property price there are almost 2 million. The prices are impossible for any family to buy.
I dont expect any drop actually. Worse case scenario would be a stagnation. Dont expect any huge drops. That wont happen and Bank Negara wont allow it to happen.
TScybermaster98
post Jan 13 2014, 10:37 AM

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Damn these mamak restaurants!

http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2014...-going-up-soon/

TScybermaster98
post Jan 13 2014, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Jan 13 2014, 12:44 PM)
Sharing what I did last night.  Used data from NAPIC. I am not responsible for the accuracy of the data here or their interpretation.

[attachmentid=3813478]

1
Asking myself, is line B2 the new brother of A2?

2
In the 1998 crash, tell-tale sign was the high rise price index which declined 2 years before others. Do not see that pattern now. In fact, high rise index has increased the most (39%) among others over the last 3 years.

All  Tce  HR  SD  DT  ==> 28%  28%  39%  24%  26%

Did we really see this higher jump in HR price  in the market from 2010-2012?

3
The decline in 2008 was less than I expected (I expected >30%). The total drops over 2008 & 2009 were:

-12% -8% -10% -20% -13%

Biggest one was the SD sector.

If the relationship between the index and the actual price is linear, then the price drop was not that much, less than 20% in the 2 years.
I know history does not repeat itself down to the seconds but some awareness should be helpful.

If you see some other things in the 2 graphs, please share.

And also, if you have 2013 house price index data, please share as well. I am very interested to know whether the index in 2013 has started to decline like in 1997. Then more bad news to come!

Cheerio.
So based on this, whats your analysis of where we're at and what lies in future for the property sector?
TScybermaster98
post Jan 13 2014, 04:02 PM

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A slight diversion to compare taxation in Germany vs Malaysia:

If u earn E$60,000 per annum (5K per month) in Germany, the total amount of tax you need to pay is E$ 14,650 or 24%. This includes the following taxes:

1) Income tax
2) Solidarity tax (to help rebuild East Germany)

If u earn >E$52,000 per year, your company must pay 50% your monthly private medical insurance premium up to a max of E$ 315 per month. You pay the balance.

So if ure earning E$5,000 per month, the net salary u will receive after all tax, health insurance and pension fund deductions will be E$ 3,330.

If u compare with a Malaysian earning RM5K per month, your net salary you receive(after deductions) will be RM4,243 per month. But from this amount, you need to pay RM 600 per month for health insurance (to get the same coverage as a German). So after this deduction, you get RM 3,640 in your pocket.

So if you take into account salary comparisons with taxes, yes Germans will pay more. But for a difference of 310 per month (take currency conversion out of the picture since ure not a tourist), Germans get:

1) Cars priced about 50% cheaper with more efficient engines
2) Higher grade petrol at 30% cheaper
3) Toll free highways
4) World class education system
5) Higher levels of personal safety
6) Better quality of life in general
7) Higher purchasing power

So tell me, are all those stories that the Malaysian Gov told us all these years about our supposedly lower cost of living, really true?

TScybermaster98
post Jan 13 2014, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 04:38 PM)
Daily necessities and housing are not included yet.  They should be cheaper in Malaysia.
Do u know the meaning of 'purchasing power'? Let me give u a tiny example (which doesnt mean a generalisation of course but just for info). You can get a really good roast beef sandwich at Tesco Express, London for just 99 pence. You can also get a kilo of oranges in Frankfurt for E$2.50 and a kilo of potatoes for E$ 1.50. MInd you Frankfurt was the most (if not among) the most expensive cities in Germany.

What can you get for that price in Malaysia?

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jan 13 2014, 05:48 PM
TScybermaster98
post Jan 14 2014, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 13 2014, 11:09 PM)
The bigger cities e.g. Frankfurt
Any website that uses a currency conversion to compare cost of living is CRAP because ure not comparing prices as a one time tourist. Ure comparing cost of living as an individual living there.

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