Is that a good one?

see yourself http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/view/8621

I think sifu chong mean that he has provided you all the analysis, you may not refer to what he comment and purchase the stock. However, with the analysis, you are able to take the risk knowingly.

JTINTER Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jt...is-26-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Market Timing
– EY%: Buy below 6.18, sell above 7.19
– 5Y DCF: 6.68 – 7.66; 5Y RDCF: 1% growth rate
– Note: The reason I use 121.72 as owner earnings (but not 117) is capex in FY13 (RM62,393,000) is extremely high. Thus, I use average of capex from 2008 to 2012 to calculate owner earnings. I have to wait FY14 annual report in order to understand the reason.
– JTINTER may be slightly under valued.
– Recently, JTINTER dropped from 6.6 to 6.25 which is quite close to 6.18 (EY%)
– Based on analysts’ consensus, JTINTER’s net cash may hit MYR1/share in FY15. JTINTER has, in the past, paid dividends of 15 to 75sen/share when its net cash reached MYR1/share. Its latest net cash stood at 43.8sen/share at end- Dec 2013.
- Analysts expect industry sales volume to contract by 6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively following the recent 14% hike in selling prices. Besides, JTINTER management expects operating environment to remain extremely challenging, primarily due to the hike in excise duty and cigarette prices. In addition, consumption is expected to be impacted by continued inflationary pressures and weak consumer sentiment.
- JTINTER is one of the most defensive stocks in my equity holdings.
- Looking at potentially high dividend payout in the future, as of writing, I have accumulated few lots of JTINTER at 6.38.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547437

At the time of writing, I owned shares of JTINTER.

betul betul.

Why u no accumulate when it dropped below RM6.30 last few days?

I like your technical analysis....keep it up

I wanted to wait for report.

You're comfortable with the stagnant/deteriorating industry volume? Sales are now supported by selling price, volumes are going down.

I guess people tighten pocket is probably a medium issue. Once people get use to inflation etc, smokers will resume their behavior. This is my assumption.

Based on information I have gathered from few sundry shop last year, they said many of their mid-level cigarette customer has moved to buy the illegal cigarette due to the taste is just slightly different, but the cost is double/triple lower.

The high-cost cigarette (e.g. danhill) is still remain the top sales. The second top now is illegal cigarette.

As Warren Buffet say, cigarette is low cost and addicted product, it is a steal stock. However, BAT is overvalue, unless there is listed company selling illegal cigarette.

While I have shifted from RM12 Mevius/Mild Seven to RM10.50 Winston red...still JTI product!

JTI... good results...

That day you wanted to add more.. jadi?

Tak jadi...sudah lari ayam

3% only from recent low...not really a mature ayam lar...ayam kecik saja, nvm la

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Feb 27 2014, 10:02 AM

If u can increase your smoking to 10 packets a day, u can turn the ayam kecik into angsa......siew ngor...

Jangan....skrang satu pek a day I also feel like too much

Tolong sikit la, take extra half pek lor. LOL...

q4 result looks so good. any idea what is the main contribution?

AIRASIA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/27/ai...is-27-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Market Timing
– EY%: Buy below 3.25, sell above 4.05
- I believe that while AIRASIA’s growth drivers will be still valid and solid, AIRASIA’s cost saving initiatives will help them to improve net profit in the future. The cost saving initiatives include:
(i) increasing the use of automation
(ii) reduce marketing spending
(iii) renegotiation of engineering contracts
(iv) route rationalisation
(v) closure of regional offices
(vi) disposing old aircraft in order to be more competitive in the market.
- Apart from cost saving initiatives, management will also strive to strike a balance by enhancing its revenue through its "Emirates Project" by introducing more connecting flights with AAX and other AOCS, growing its ancillary income per pax from RM41 to RM50 by introducing Wifi and Duty Free Shopping on plane.
- I believe that FY2014 would be a better year as compared to 2013, with the expectation that yield would recover and its cost savings initiatives would boost earnings.
- On the other hand, MAS and AIRASIA have guided that domestic and intra-ASEAN fares are unlikely to decline further from the already-low levels, but fares are unlikely to rise either, as capacity deployment over the next six months will be kept at present levels and there is no evidence of capacity rationalisation. As the weak 4Q13 fares carry over into 2014, some analysts expect MAA to experience an average 5% underlying yield compression in 2014, leading to a 26% core net profit decline. To make things worse, Thai AirAsia’s profit is likely to shrink and Indonesia AirAsia’s losses expand further this year. Thus, the analysts expect AirAsia’s group core net profit to fall a massive 43% yoy in 2014. The outlook may improve in 2015-16 as the losses are unsustainable for MAS and Malindo. I also conquer with their view.
- Based on Changes in Sub. S-hldr’s Int. (29B), since Jan 2014, EPF has been heavily buying AIRASIA, and Wellington also stopped net selling AIRASIA. Heavy buy by EPF doesn’t guarantee appreciation of AIRASIA’s stock price, but it provides a very strong support from 2.2 to 2.4.
- AirAsia has told Bursa Malaysia that it is proposing to buy up to 10% of its issued and paid-up share capital at any point in time. The proposed share buyback, if implemented, will enable AirAsia and its subsidiaries to utilise any of its surplus financial resources, which are not immediately required for other uses, to purchase its own shares from the market, the company said. The proposed share buyback is expected to stabilise the price of AirAsia shares and to prevent against speculation of the shares, when undervalued, to enhance investors’ confidence. (27 Feb 2014)
- I have accumulated AIRASIA 3 times in Dec 2013 and Jan 2014 in the range from 2.3 to 2.4, so I won’t accumulate AIRASIA in near term or until it formed a new higher support.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550541

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AIRASIA.

MAYBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/ma...is-28-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 10.26 – 11.68 (MOS: 5% – 16%)
– Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%)
– I think 11.6-12.9 is reasonable fair value range for MAYBANK. Thus, MAYBANK is slightly undervalued.
- MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target.
- Market Timing:
– EY%: buy below 10.19, sell above 12.18
- I will wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550825

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.