Any reason you considering these stocks?

It mainly will affect DCF and EY% (eps), but not absolute PE.

Usually, people welcome bonus issue because it reflects the confidence of the company in its ability to service a larger equity base. Thus, bonus issues are said to be a good signaling mechanism on the company’s capacity to deliver future benefits to shareholders in terms of increased dividend. Therefore, stock price may goes up. On the other hand, due to increase of number of outstanding shares, fair value will be reduced to some extent (depends on the scale of bonus issues), but usually the impact is not so significant.

How will it affect DCF and EY%? It will drop as share price?

Newbie here, hope you don't angry.

This post has been edited by 500Kmission: Feb 4 2014, 12:25 PM

Fair values derived from these models will be reduced because increase of outstanding shares (NOSH), but the impact is not so great one unless the company overdo bonus shares.

DCF:

Fair value = present value / NOSH

EY%:

eps = earnings/NOSH



This post has been edited by lcchong76: Feb 4 2014, 02:44 PM

I see, thanks for the explanation. As a result, bonus issue will not affect value of the company at all (i.e. change from overvalue to undervalue).

PBBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pb...sis-6-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 17.76 – 20.35
– EY%: 19.42 – 20.97
– Absolute PE: 19.76 – 22.99 (22.99 is too optimistic)
- By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 11%.
- PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00.
- In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years.
- I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free".

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (5 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532249

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.



This post has been edited by lcchong76: Feb 6 2014, 01:31 PM

DIGI Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/07/di...sis-7-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 4.84 – 5.53
– EY%: 4.02 – 4.37
– Absolute PE: 4.36 – 4.73
– DY%: 3.45 – 3.74
- All models indicate that DIGI is either overvalued or fully valued.
- The outperformance of 4Q13 was mainly due to lower-than-expected depreciation and taxes. I am not sure whether this is something recurring for long term.
- With Internet subscribers increased by 14.5% and blended ARPU increased by a modest 2.1% to RM48, I am quite positive with DIGI future prospects.
- However, I believe that DIGI is currently fully (or nearly) valued.
- The last time I accumulated DIGI was in Jul 2013 at 4.66. Thus, I won’t accumulate DIGI for the time being.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (6 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532993

At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIGI.

observation need to amend.

which part exactly need to amend?

Can't see the sentence for Efficient Scale, Growth Drivers & Risks/Challenges.

Looks like PDF rendering issue.

DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/di...sis-9-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Due to the recent price drop (3.6 –> 3.3), I revisited DIALOG to see whether it is a bargain price or not.
- Fair values:
– EY%: 3.22 – 3.85 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts)
– Absolute PE: 2.73 – 3.27 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts)
- Based on the current price (3.3 as of 7 Feb 2014), DIALOG is either overvalued or fully valued.
- I will consider to buy DIALOG if it drops below 3.0, or may be at 3.0 (if 3.0 turns out as a support).

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (19 Nov 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1465809

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DIALOG.

ARMADA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/ar...is-10-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– EY%: 4.45 – 6.91
- With orderbook stands at RM9b with a burn-rate of approximately >3 years, looks like ARMADA is a good buy. I believe that FY13 results will be outperform as well.
- By looking at price chart, 4.08 – 4.16 is a very strong resistance zone. The positives are:
– 3.5 – 3.7 is a very strong support zone.
– Spotted 4 higher lows.
- In the next few days, I will check out few more O&G companies. As of now, ARMADA is a good choice, and I will most likely buy it in the next few days.



Latest Financial – Q3 2013 Financial Report (20 Nov 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1466961

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA.

JTIASA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/jt...sis-11-feb-2014

My View:-

- Fair value
– EY%: 4.09 – 6.83
- Not sure about the fair value, and I need to further study JTIASA.
- I need to further compare JTIASA with KMLOONG. In terms of productivity, costs, efficiency and financial health, at one glance, KMLOONG outplayed JTIASA. JTIASA may have greater potential but KMLOONG’s future prospect is not bad.
- Since I already have SIME in my portfolio and recently accumulated SIME a bit, I will keep JTIASA in my radar and do further study.

PETGAS Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/11/pe...is-11-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– EY%: 21.5 – 23.3
– Absolute PE: 22.1 – 24.00
- PETGAS is current fully valued.
- I may accumulate PETGAS if its price dips below RM21.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (10 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1535437

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PETGAS.

DAYANG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/13/da...is-12-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– EY%: 4.57 – 4.67 (MOS: 17% – 19%)
- Recommended MOS for DAYANG is around 17%. This indicates that DAYANG is undervalued.
- DAYANG got excellent health and great prospect.
- I will further study DAYANG.

Latest Financial – Q3 2013 Financial Report (26 Nov 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1472417

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

Always feel good after reading your excellent analysis. Keep it up

Sifu lcchong,

Any chance of seeing your report on CIMB?

I have stopped following CIMB