DIALOG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/14/di...is-14-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– EY%: 3.22 – 3.85 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts)
– Absolute PE: 2.73 – 3.27 (I take average of EPS estimation for FY14 and FY15 from 11 analysts)
- Based on the current price (3.3 as of 7 Feb 2014), DIALOG is either overvalued or fully valued.
- I will consider to buy DIALOG if it drops below 3.0, or may be at 3.0 (if 3.0 turns out as a support).

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (13 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1538729

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DIALOG.

ARMADA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/21/ar...is-21-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– EY%: 4.15 – 6.21
- With Current orderbook is approximately RM13.2b with optional contract extensions of RM8.9b.
- By looking at price chart, 4.08 – 4.16 is a very strong resistance zone. The positives are:
– 3.5 – 3.7 is a very strong support zone.
– Spotted 4 higher lows.
- I will wait for bullish breakout from the current ranging zone. ARMADA is not a dividend stock, so it is no point for me to buy it while it is ranging.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543993

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of ARMADA.

GAB Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/ga...is-22-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 10-Y DCF: 12.75 – 15.61 (MOS: -17% -> 4%)
– EY%: 11.60 – 12.44 (MOS: -28% -> -20%)
– Absolute PE: 14.75 – 15.82 (MOS: -1.29% -> 5.54%)
- I think the fair value probably range from 13 – 15. At the current price (14.94 as of 21 Feb 2014), GAB is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%).
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
– Based on my growth analysis, as of FY14Q2, GAB only achieved 50% (825,166) of FY13 revenue (1,676,348), and 46.8% (115,712) of FY13 net profit (217,604). Therefore, most likely, I estimate GAB’s FY14 result will be flat if compare to FY13.
- 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 11.60 – 13.00 is a good support zone, from fundamental and technical aspect. Chances of GAB dropping below this zone is low.
- I may accumulate GAB if its price got big discount.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543357

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GAB.

CARLSBG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/ca...is-23-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 10-Y DCF: 9.11 – 11.17 (MOS: -39% -> 14%)
– EY%: 12.10 – 12.87 (MOS: -4.99% -> 1.34%)
– Absolute PE: 12.06 – 12.83 (MOS: -5.30% -> 1.05%)
- I think the fair value probably range from 11.9 – 12.3. At the current price (12.62 as of 21 Feb 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%).
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
- 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low.
- I may accumulate CARLSBG if its price got big discount.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (21 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1544685

At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG.

CARLSBG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/ca...is-23-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 10-Y DCF: 9.11 – 11.17 (MOS: -39% -> 14%)
– EY%: 12.10 – 12.87 (MOS: -4.99% -> 1.34%)
– Absolute PE: 12.06 – 12.83 (MOS: -5.30% -> 1.05%)
- I think the fair value probably range from 11.9 – 12.3. At the current price (12.62 as of 21 Feb 2014), CARLSBG is already fully valued or over valued. Besides, MOS derived from all models are not up to my benchmark (10.59%).
- The dividend return spread between GAB and CARLSBG vs the 10-year MGS yield has narrowed to only 30-40bpts vs the historical 10-year average of 280-290bpts. (Source: RHB)
- Going forward, I remain conservative and skeptical above volume growth in the brewery sector as some reports show that the industry is saturated, coupled with several other external factors such as rising fuel costs, inflation as well as potential exposure to excise duty hike in the near future. However, earnings should be sustainable at current levels.
- 2014 will be a challenging year for brewers due to competition from contrabrand beers and as consumer spending dwindles. Fortunately, this will be partially alleviated by the Visit Malaysia Year 2014 event.
- In my opinion, there is still some downside risk even though the share prices of both stocks have fallen sharply from last year’s peaks (down 30-45%). 10.24 – 11.50 is a good support zone, from technical aspect. Chances of CARLSBG dropping below this zone is low.
- I may accumulate CARLSBG if its price got big discount.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (21 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1544685

At the time of writing, I owned shares of CARLSBG.

AXIATA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/ax...is-25-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– Absolute PE: 5.84 – 6.43
- AXIATA is current fully valued at current price (6.56 on 25 Feb 2014)
- In terms of market timing, EY% suggest to buy below 6.03, and sell above 8.15.
- I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
- As of now, I see lack of growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term.
- I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543249

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

I really enjoy reading your reports, so my compliments to you. However, in almost all of your reports, the companies under coverage are deemed fully valued or even over-valued. Not very useful if you are sitting on cash and looking for something to buy.

In matter of fact, this is the current condition of market.

I understand. Effectively, you are saying, "Nothing to invest in. Stay in cash or hold existing stocks."

you are right!

can i use this approach:
fully valued > hold
over valued > sell
if fully valued but growth <3% (FD rate) then sell too?

lcchong, you might want to check out PJDEV & MATRIX.

did you make a review on RhbCap?

And one of best corporate governance in malaysia which award by MSWG.

err... my rule is not like this one.

Thanks valan. I will check it out.

I stopped following rhbcap very long time ago.

Oh yeap, thanks for reminding me

Have you do the analysis for LPI?

Yes and No.

Yes - I helped my father in law to maintain LPI's financial figures.
No - I do not analyze LPI thoroughly. However, I am sure it is an outstanding company and stock.