VITROX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/vi...sis-1-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– 5Y DCF: 1.49 – 1.68 (MOS: 11% – 22%)
– VITROX is still undervalued.
Market Timing:
– EY%: Buy below 0.79, sell above 1.51
- I believe that FY14 will be a growth year for VITROX because of the recovery of global semiconductor industry and improving US, Japan and European markets.
- I will accumulate VITROX if it formed a strong support level.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551141

At the time of writing, I owned shares of VITROX.

The sad thing is their dividend has dropped.

They are still in growing stage. They still need capital for expansion. I think High dividend payout may not sustainable for the time being.

WELLCAL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/we...sis-1-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– 5Y DCF: 3.76 – 4.28 (MOS: 0% – 10%)
– WELLCAL is currently fully valued.
- Market timing
– EY%: Buy under 2.38, Sell above 3.73
- WELLCAL has appreciated 60% (during this time, the KLCI was only up 3% while the FBM Small Cap Index rose 19%) and dividend yield has declined to the 5% levels.
- I will wait for big correction, such as WELLCAL drops to 3.00….

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550029

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

BURSA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/bu...sis-1-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Market Timing:
– EY%: Buy below 8.33, sell above 11.72
- In my opinion, in FY14, the following risks will outweigh the growth drivers
– Withdrawal of foreign investors in very large scale.
– US QE taper will cause higher volatility in the market. This may cause investors stay out of (or monitor) the equity market.
- I may/may not accumulate BURSA in the near term. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550697

At the time of writing, I owned shares of BURSA.

Thank for sharing ya. I'm just plan to get in bursa as now 7.5-7.6. What do you think if I get few now for dividend proposing .

If you buy now, the current dividend yield is 6.91%, and rolling 4Q dividend yield is 4.25%. Looks ok, but you make the decision.

DAYANG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/da...sis-3-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value:
– 5Y DCF: 3.27 – 3.71 (MOS: -7% – 6%)
- Market timing:
– EY%: Buy below 3.36, sell above 5.41
- DAYANG’S longer-term prospects are strong given that c.77% of its RM4b orderbook extends until 2018. It is also a beneficiary of any improvements in associate PERDANA earnings.
- I will consider to buy DAYANG if
– it dropped below 3.3; or
– it formed a strong support.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549121

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DAYANG.

GENTING Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/ge...is-3-mar-2014/a

My View:-

- Market Timing:
– EY%: Buy below 7.57, sell above 11.63
- GENTING, as a holding company, should have no problems financing its power division’s capex commitments of US$1bn. The annual cashflow of over RM530m from GENM’s management fees should be sufficient to meet the equity portion of the US$360m, spread over three years. However, if we consider the US$4bn capex for Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV), the timing of the cashflow could be an issue as the RM7bn cash from the conversion of warrants will be spread out over the next five years. Apparently, work on RWLV will not start until it secures the necessary gaming licence. Analysts expect the licence to be obtained in the next 12-18 months. However, based on the building applications submitted by RWLV on 4 Dec 2013 as found on http://www.clackcountynv.gov, there appears to have been progress. This means construction could start as early as 3Q14.
- GENTING has many new projects on hand, but most of the projects are under development. Besides, it takes long time for GENTING to obtain casino license. And the risk is GENTING may not able to obtain license.
- As of now, I won’t add position to GENTING because there are many uncertainties at this moment.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1552681

At the time of writing, I owned shares of GENTING.

CSCENIC Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/04/cs...sis-4-mar-2013/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 1.16 – 1.32 (MOS: -1% – 11%)
– Absolute PE: 1.16 – 1.18 (MOS: -1.04% – 1.13%)
- Market Timing:
– EY%: Buy below 0.69, sell above 0.88. From 2009 to present, EY% has been declining from 19% to 6.9%.
– 5Y DCF: Buy below 0.85
– Absolute PE: Buy below 0.92
- All models indicates CSCENIC is fully valued.
- I will wait for big correction, such as CSCENIC drops below 1.00 and then formed a strong support below 1.00. Or I may also consider to buy CSCENIC if CSCENIC formed a strong support at 1.00. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550989

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of CSCENIC.

DELEUM Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/06/de...sis-6-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value
– 5Y DCF: 5.21 – 5.89 (MOS: 6% – 17%)
– DELEUM is near fully valued.
- Market Timing
– EY%: Buy under 2.43, sell under 5.03
- The long term outlook looks bright for Deleum, with a RM3.5bn orderbook lasting up to 7 years and 2 major contracts commencing in FY14.
- I will wait for bigger correction. Let see how it goes.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (25 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1547721

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of DELEUM.

SIME Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/si...sis-7-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 5Y DCF: 8.75 – 9.86 (MOS: -6% – 6%)
– Absolute PE: 10.78 (MOS: 14.41%)
– EY%: Buy below 8.33, sell above 10.42 (11.43%)
– For SIME, the MOS to be used should be 19.42%. Thus all models indicate that SIME is near-fully valued.
- Despite the weak 1H14 result, the plantation division EBIT has doubled to RM514m QoQ due to improvement in CPO prices. With the current CPO prices at above RM2700/MT or at least 10% higher QoQ, I believe better days ahead for plantation division. Hence, the Group’s 2H14 CNP is likely to improve QoQ given that plantation is the biggest earnings contributor to SIME earnings. I will look beyond 1H14 weak result and start positioning for the expected better second half.
- For the time being, I won’t add position, but of course, I will continue to hold SIME (hopefully it will ride up….).

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (28 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1552905

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SIME.

PBBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/08/pb...sis-8-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values/Market Timing:
– 5Y DCF: 17.45 – 20.00 (MOS: -9% – 5%)
– EY%: Buy below 17.45, sell above 22.18 (MOS: 13.96%)
– Absolute PE: 21.90 – 24.11 (MOS: 12.89% – 20.87%)
– MOS to be used is 23.38%.
– By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 23%.
- PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00.
- In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years.
- I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free".

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (6 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1559257

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.

SUNWAY Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/su...sis-9-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Market Timing/Fair value:
– I am not able to determine reasonable fair value for SUNWAY
- I remain cautious on the increasingly crowded Iskandar Malaysia development and luxury property market which would be hit by the new property cooling measures amid stricter lending rules. However, earnings are well-supported by its MYR2.4bn unbilled sales (MYR2.2bn in 3Q13) and MYR3.9bn construction orderbook.
- Based on technical analysis, SUNWAY is still in down trend.
- For the time being, I am not so sure whether I should add position. My current average price is 2.22, may be I should wait and see.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1551289

At the time of writing, I owned shares of SUNWAY.

AHEALTH Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/09/ah...sis-9-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value:
– 5Y DCF: 6.86 – 7.84 (MOS: 35% – 43%)
- Market Timing:
– EY%: 3.35 – 4.02 (MOS: -12%)
- As a pharmaceutical company, AHEALTH is a defensive company. However, what I dislike is balance float of shares in market is around 15% only. Liquidity of this stock is low.
- I may buy some shares of AHEALTH in the future. I will continue to monitor it.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550277

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of AHEALTH.

QL Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/ql...is-10-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value/Market Timing
– Absolute PE: 2.77 (MOS: -16.65%)
– EY%: Buy below 1.88, sell above 2.98 (MOS: -8.52%)
- The drivers of FY14 results:
– higher surimi-based products sales due to the year-end festival season,
– ILF, due to lower feed prices which have started to decline in 3Q but stable egg selling prices
– the continuous improvement in MPM results with margins sustaining above the 5-year average of 14% in the recent quarters
– higher-than-expected CPO price and higher FFB volume processed
- I believe that the current price already factored in the growth drivers.
- I won’t buy QL for the time being.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543481

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of QL.

Bro mind to share your Analysis on ILB and thanks in advanced


Do you think is good buy to keep within a year since the prices is reasonable about 0.735 and also the following reason as below

-Year 2013 net profit 192.718m
-Top 10 Best KLSE Dividend Stocks of the Year (2013)

MAYBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/16/ma...is-16-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5Y DCF: 10.38 – 11.82 (MOS: 9% – 20%)
– Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%)
– EY%: buy below 10.25, sell above 12.25
– MAYBANK is undervalued.
- MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target.
- As of 14/03/2014, at 9.5, looks like MAYBANK is attractive now. I may wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2013 (14 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1567189

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.

SCIENTX Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/sc...is-21-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value/Market Timing:
– 5Y DCF: 7.34 – 8.32 (MOS: 19% – 29%)
– Buy under 4.50, sell above 6.45
- While the rise in raw material prices had affected margins for the manufacturing segment, I remain positive on SCIENTX’s longer term prospects. Ongoing expansion plans for higher margin consumer packaging films and product extensions such as the thinner gauge film (6 microns) should also provide added buffers against margin contractions. At the same time, the group has also recently completed the expansion of its stretch film capacity to 194k MT/ annum (Dec 2013), which would provide the impetus for growth in manufacturing revenue and accelerate the prospects of spinning off the Group’s property division.
- I have missed the opportunities of buying SCIENTX. Let see I got opportunity to buy it in the future.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (20 Mar 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1571021

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of SCIENTX.

KMLOONG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/24/km...is-24-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
– 5-Y DCF – 3.33 – 3.72 (MOS: 17% – 26%)
– EY% – Buy below 2.33, sell above 3.33
– In my opinion, 3.3 – 3.7 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities.
- Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74.

Latest Financial – Q3 2014 Financial Report (31 Dec 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1505401

At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG.