Great jobs.. Why select Bursa Msia counters only?  Buy and Sell in RM .. Ratio 1:1 . Slow ROI if economy get better.
Invest in DJIA, Nasdaq, Rusell ..etc  Buy and Sell in Foreign Currency.. Up and Down included
currency Exchg rate too.

Sure!

Just curious, still got people don't use excel one meh?

MAYBANK–Wait for new support

Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding:

1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel.
2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65.
3. The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4
4. The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years.
5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish.
6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK.
In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT.

MAYBANK–Wait for new support

Tonight, I had a chat with my wife as she asked me whether can buy MAYBANK now. In terms of fundamental analysis, MAYBANK is almost fully valued. However, after checking the price chart, we may have opportunity to accumulate MAYBANK in short future. Here is my finding:

1. MAYBANK is currently moving in a downtrend channel.
2. The first support will be the current uptrend line, where the projected support is 9.6 – 9.65.
3. The second support will be the lower line of the downtrend channel, where the projected support is 9.3 – 9.4
4. The third support zone, which is the strongest one, is the 8.3 – 9.2, where MAYBANK ranged in this zone for almost 2 years.
5. In my opinion, MAYBANK got very support zone from 8.3 – 9.4. It is unlikely MAYBANK will turn to major bearish.
6. For my style, I will wait until MAYBANK found its new support level. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK.
In conclusion, our action plan is WAIT.

let see if MAYBANK can hold at there

TENAGA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/01/26/te...is-26-jan-2014/

My View:-

- The outperformance in stock price was a pleasant surprise, although the drivers behind it are likely unsustainable in our view. Nevertheless, 1Q was not a representative quarter in any case, as the new tariffs (+15%) to end-users are only effective in Jan 2014.
- I remain positive on TENAGA as I believe
  i) consensus has yet to incorporate the full earnings accretion from the tariff hike and,
  ii) the reduced earnings risk under the Incentive-based Regulation (IBR) has not been fully priced in.
- I will continue to hold TENAGA even if I sold 60% of stakes. I may accumulate TENAGA a bit if there is a new growth driver.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (23 Jan 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1523449

At the time of writing, I owned shares of TENAGA.

It mainly will affect DCF and EY% (eps), but not absolute PE.

Usually, people welcome bonus issue because it reflects the confidence of the company in its ability to service a larger equity base. Thus, bonus issues are said to be a good signaling mechanism on the company’s capacity to deliver future benefits to shareholders in terms of increased dividend. Therefore, stock price may goes up. On the other hand, due to increase of number of outstanding shares, fair value will be reduced to some extent (depends on the scale of bonus issues), but usually the impact is not so significant.

Fair values derived from these models will be reduced because increase of outstanding shares (NOSH), but the impact is not so great one unless the company overdo bonus shares.

DCF:

Fair value = present value / NOSH

EY%:

eps = earnings/NOSH

PBBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pb...sis-6-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF: 17.76 – 20.35
  – EY%: 19.42 – 20.97
  – Absolute PE: 19.76 – 22.99 (22.99 is too optimistic)
- By looking at the fair values, I think PBBANK is now fully valued (or a bit overvalued). Even if the models proposed fair value above 20.00, but the MOS is not higher than 11%.
- PBBANK has been climbing up since Jul 2012 with couple of small corrections. In my opinion, PBBANK may starts to range somewhere below 20.00.
- In FY14-FY15, intense competition amongst financial institutions for market share as well as the need for higher capital conservation due to the requirements of Basel III capital framework, will continue to put pressure on pricing of products and return on equity. PBBANK growth will be slowing down, and this is proven from the declining ROE in the past 5 years.
- I will continue to hold and monitor PBBANK, but will not accumulate PBBANK at this moment. After holding PBBANK for almost 15 years, the dividend gains covered almost 95% of my cost. I will just let it float with so called "cost free".

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (5 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1532249

At the time of writing, I owned shares of PBBANK.

which part exactly need to amend?

AXIATA Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/ax...is-25-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – Absolute PE: 5.84 – 6.43
- AXIATA is current fully valued at current price (6.56 on 25 Feb 2014)
- In terms of market timing, EY% suggest to buy below 6.03, and sell above 8.15.
- I expect Celcom’s earnings to remain stable going forward amid rational competition. XL meanwhile will have to absorb Axis’ losses in the initial years post-merger. The potentially value-accretive tower spin-off exercise is not close to being completed. Besides, AXIATA is still highly leveraged. CROIC and ROIC are just stable, but not improving significantly.
- As of now, I see lack of growth catalysts for Axiata in the near term.
- I won’t accumulate AXIATA in the near term.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (20 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1543249

At the time of writing, I owned shares of AXIATA.

Oh yeap, thanks for reminding me

Is that a good one? 

err... my rule is not like this one.

I guess people tighten pocket is probably a medium issue. Once people get use to inflation etc, smokers will resume their behavior. This is my assumption.