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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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TSyhtan
post Apr 6 2013, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 03:23 AM)
Exactly the point I want to say.

Say you have 1 million for investment. Will you dare to put 1 million all in betting on those super undervalued low PE volatile cheap stocks? Ends up, maybe you will use 50k to play shoot and run short term game. Maybe you are lucky, they one day shoot up 100%, and you gain 50k from it.

Now, if you buy (good) blue chips stocks, put 1 million all in. They steadily and unsurprisingly gain just a small 10%. That will be 100k gain, which is actually double of that 50k gain. And you can sleep better at night holding some (good) blue chips.

Not saying this is a great method, just sharing some thoughts. I mix around steady growth stocks and undervalued stocks in my portfolio.  smile.gif
*
But for small capital like me, it is preferable to focus on 2-5 stocks, since bullet is limited.

Undervalue stock take time to unlock its value, mainly because of low liquidity and small capitalization, Cold eye approach way is spread his 1mil to 50 counter, each year 1 or 2 counter 100% up, plus dividend, i believe his report card will not lose to overall market.

Not necessary all blue chips will have constantly 10% gain, this year plantation blue chips suffer the most, mainly because of the drop in CPO. Investing in stock market is a place to test a person sight, gut and patience.

QUOTE(mopster @ Apr 6 2013, 07:11 AM)
Uncle Jeff asking for money... cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif
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Right issue at RM1.7, much much lower than market price tongue.gif

QUOTE(gark @ Apr 6 2013, 09:29 AM)
IMHO Not all cheap stocks (as in market cap) with low PE is volatile and dangerous to invest. If it is a speculative play then yes it's risky, but there are lots of them with good fundamentals. In fact there are quite a few which graduated to blue chips over time as well.

There is a difference in 'cheap' on valuation, market cap and price. Some of my 'cheap' (low PE) stocks have prices that rival blue chips.  laugh.gif

You can find safe, low PE, fundamentally sound companies with low market caps. Not all blue chips are wonderful companies, but you definitely pay higher price for it.  wink.gif My low pE, low market cap holdings let me sleep at night better, as it is less volatile and have good dividend to boot, so it lets me wait out all the ups and downs.

I like these range of stocks, no need to compete against those 'fun' managers. I am proud to say I never held a KLCI index stock before, as before i find their valuation appalling. If later the value shines, then I might buy some.  wink.gif

P/S Your post is 3.30 am.. no need to sleep ah brother yok.  whistling.gif
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Any major storm in the market is your best friend to invest in blue chip laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yhtan: Apr 6 2013, 11:02 AM
cherroy
post Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 03:23 AM)
Exactly the point I want to say.

Say you have 1 million for investment. Will you dare to put 1 million all in betting on those super undervalued low PE volatile cheap stocks? Ends up, maybe you will use 50k to play shoot and run short term game. Maybe you are lucky, they one day shoot up 100%, and you gain 50k from it.

Now, if you buy (good) blue chips stocks, put 1 million all in. They steadily and unsurprisingly gain just a small 10%. That will be 100k gain, which is actually double of that 50k gain. And you can sleep better at night holding some (good) blue chips.

Not saying this is a great method, just sharing some thoughts. I mix around steady growth stocks and undervalued stocks in my portfolio.  smile.gif
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This is why I said before, individual is not as same as fund manager.
Fund manager has 1 million, he/she can invest 1 million entirely.
But for individual to invest entire 1 million in stocks be it super value stock, super blue chips or not, it is seemed not so appropriate.

It is too risky for individual to invest entire capital into a few stocks, as asset allocation and diversification is important for individual personal financial management.

Fund manager can lose the entire 1 million, worst to worst, getting sacked from the job
But individual may not have the luxury, as those capital may come from half an life saving, hard earned money.

No matter how, it is always advisable to keep some level of cash to weather the unexpected storm.
No cash, even a sudden plunge of stocks (irrationally) like few days ago when announcing the parliament dissolving or "rabbit hit the tree" time, one also cannot grab the opportunity.
No cash, no capital, out of the game.


foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 6 2013, 12:59 AM)
Generally, in normal market condition, most blue chips price won't be too cheap. FUnd managers are eyeing around everyday, how can they go cheap then?
Fund managers by nature is bullish (as short is not permitted here), so if they have money, or people pouring money into fund/unit trust etc, they need to buy, cannot take client money and put all in cash as FD, right?

The so called "cheap price" generally occur once or twice in a decade.

From my experience, it is better to buy a good company share at fair price instead of cheap price in a lousy company.

There is cheap price in red chip, super duper low valuation, who said there is no "cheap" price?  tongue.gif
or
There are still plenty of 0.005 CWs out there... tongue.gif
This cannot go "cheaper" already.  laugh.gif
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My portfolio grown bigger, buying good company with minimal supervision become first preference.
while investing in these really wonderful company, people can focus on their own career too.

You're right,true blue cheap indeed occurs once or twice in decade. Even in downturn panic market, the price probably slighty below its fair value...

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM
alexkos
post Apr 6 2013, 11:03 AM

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should i withdraw fund now? to avoid election crash.
SKY 1809
post Apr 6 2013, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 6 2013, 09:29 AM)
IMHO Not all cheap stocks (as in market cap) with low PE is volatile and dangerous to invest. If it is a speculative play then yes it's risky, but there are lots of them with good fundamentals. In fact there are quite a few which graduated to blue chips over time as well.

There is a difference in 'cheap' on valuation, market cap and price. Some of my 'cheap' (low PE) stocks have prices that rival blue chips.  laugh.gif

You can find safe, low PE, fundamentally sound companies with low market caps. Not all blue chips are wonderful companies, but you definitely pay higher price for it.  wink.gif My low pE, low market cap holdings let me sleep at night better, as it is less volatile and have good dividend to boot, so it lets me wait out all the ups and downs.

I like these range of stocks, no need to compete against those 'fun' managers. I am proud to say I never held a KLCI index stock before, as before i find their valuation appalling. If later the value shines, then I might buy some.  wink.gif

P/S Your post is 3.30 am.. no need to sleep ah brother yok.  whistling.gif
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Brother , well said . thumbup.gif

My Asiatic ( Genting PLantation ) last time used to be super penny at 50sen, but did not close shop. TDM was another.

PBB was once at 88sen ( 50sen par value ) .

Even during recessions, many blue chips could go super slim ones. Mass Staff retrenchments and so on.

Most of the Euro Banks were once shinny Blue Chips too, what happened now rclxub.gif

And those newspaper blue chip companies could be gone in the next century hmm.gif

MISC is one good case of rotting blue chip.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 6 2013, 11:23 AM
SKY 1809
post Apr 6 2013, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM)
My portfolio grown bigger, buying good company with minimal supervision become first preference.
while investing in these really wonderful company, people can focus on their own career too.

You're right,true blue cheap indeed occurs once or twice in decade. Even in downturn panic market, the price probably slighty below its fair value...
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Can go for co with good cash flow one mah.

Even Daiman , I do not think it is a blu chip in nature, but with good cash flow.

Maybe in the future .........

And many times I see blu chip Banks simply spent money ( over paying ) to buy other banks/brokers in Billions too.

What is the purpose behind their purposes hmm.gif

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 6 2013, 11:53 AM
skiddtrader
post Apr 6 2013, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(alexkos @ Apr 6 2013, 11:03 AM)
should i withdraw fund now? to avoid election crash.
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The election results will not crash the entire market to its knees.

But some counters which depend on government contracts might be affected.
GregPG01
post Apr 6 2013, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Apr 6 2013, 12:49 PM)
The election results will not crash the entire market to its knees.

But some counters which depend on government contracts might be affected.
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My simple brain ...

Bn win -> relief rally. Remember that we are the worst market performer for Q1 due to this election risk. A lot of liquidity from local funds and retailers waiting to re-enter as well.

Pr win -> market take a beating. Short term pain but long term gain if they can deliver the results.

So if I die die no sell, just hold close my eyes 2 years come back to check later can ? People still need to eat, drink, shop regardless who win right?

But market will be driven by emotions more than logic...
alexkos
post Apr 6 2013, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Apr 6 2013, 12:49 PM)
The election results will not crash the entire market to its knees.

But some counters which depend on government contracts might be affected.
*
viewing myself as a risk-adverse person, I have already sold my fund, awaiting to re-enter the share market post-election.

All the best =)
CP88
post Apr 6 2013, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 6 2013, 09:29 AM)
IMHO Not all cheap stocks (as in market cap) with low PE is volatile and dangerous to invest. If it is a speculative play then yes it's risky, but there are lots of them with good fundamentals. In fact there are quite a few which graduated to blue chips over time as well.

There is a difference in 'cheap' on valuation, market cap and price. Some of my 'cheap' (low PE) stocks have prices that rival blue chips.  laugh.gif

You can find safe, low PE, fundamentally sound companies with low market caps. Not all blue chips are wonderful companies, but you definitely pay higher price for it.  wink.gif My low pE, low market cap holdings let me sleep at night better, as it is less volatile and have good dividend to boot, so it lets me wait out all the ups and downs.

I like these range of stocks, no need to compete against those 'fun' managers. I am proud to say I never held a KLCI index stock before, as before i find their valuation appalling. If later the value shines, then I might buy some.  wink.gif

P/S Your post is 3.30 am.. no need to sleep ah brother yok.  whistling.gif
*
Yokie monitoring the US market ma. whistling.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 6 2013, 11:19 AM)
Can go for co with good cash flow one mah.

Even Daiman , I do not think it is a blu chip in nature, but with good cash flow.

Maybe in the future .........

And many times I see blu chip Banks  simply spent money ( over paying )  to buy other banks/brokers  in Billions too.

What is the purpose behind their purposes hmm.gif
*
Really busy something else recently.
don't have much time to hunt those mediocre company with good valuation.
Thanks for the tips dude, will have a look on it.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Apr 6 2013, 07:52 PM
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 6 2013, 09:29 AM)
IMHO Not all cheap stocks (as in market cap) with low PE is volatile and dangerous to invest. If it is a speculative play then yes it's risky, but there are lots of them with good fundamentals. In fact there are quite a few which graduated to blue chips over time as well.

There is a difference in 'cheap' on valuation, market cap and price. Some of my 'cheap' (low PE) stocks have prices that rival blue chips.  laugh.gif

You can find safe, low PE, fundamentally sound companies with low market caps. Not all blue chips are wonderful companies, but you definitely pay higher price for it.  wink.gif My low pE, low market cap holdings let me sleep at night better, as it is less volatile and have good dividend to boot, so it lets me wait out all the ups and downs.

I like these range of stocks, no need to compete against those 'fun' managers. I am proud to say I never held a KLCI index stock before, as before i find their valuation appalling. If later the value shines, then I might buy some.  wink.gif

P/S Your post is 3.30 am.. no need to sleep ah brother yok.  whistling.gif
*
Yes not all blue chips are wonderful company, this I absolutely agree.

But the flaw of value investing by buying mediocre undervalue companies and selling when it reach the value, value investor still have to "guess" whether the value will keep increasing in future years.

Let say you bought one undervalue mediocre stock, once the price reach your value ...you still have to guess whether the value won't be increasing next few years. This will cause scenario like sell to

early or sell to late. And let say you're prudent enough, sell whenever it reach your value, personal experience from myself can tell how much not worth of your effort if you're only invest with little amount because of the reasons below:

1) first you still have to track what happen inside the company, track any sensitive price information announcement made by the company.
2) Not all business are easily foreseeable for the next 5 to 10 years.
3) It can be undervalued for so long that, less trader causing the stock have inadequate liquidity.

The main reason why I turn into buy and hold approach simply because reason no.1 and no.2.

Point number 1 if the company having a good volume trading, this usually happened after the stock become "famous", value investor who managed to pick it before it become famous....so what are the decision now? Sell , hold or buy? With value investor mindset usually this value syndrome mentioned by you last time, usually buy will not be the option. Left hold or Sell option. End up you either have to sell it earlier than everyone which expecting the value of the company probably will stuck there for a while, or another option that value investor have to compete with trader by to avoid value trap. In short, really time consuming....

Point number 2 is the reason why people probably put very less % of their total portfolio in the money. The real example will be our malaysian version of guru, Coldeye. Holding a lot of undervalued stocks with frequent monitor because of so many stocks holding as the fund grown bigger. Very time consuming too.....but probably better option for full time investor.

What my view is say that when someone portfolio getting bigger...which approach will probably better for someone less time to monitor.
SKY 1809
post Apr 6 2013, 08:49 PM

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This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Apr 6 2013, 08:57 PM
yok70
post Apr 6 2013, 08:58 PM

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QUOTE(CP88 @ Apr 6 2013, 05:56 PM)
Yokie monitoring the US market ma.  whistling.gif
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Eyeing both US and HK/China market. I love 郑少秋 effect! Down another 10% even better! drool.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 6 2013, 09:01 PM
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 08:58 PM)
Eyeing both US and HK/China market. I love 郑少秋 effect! Down another 10% even better!  drool.gif
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sweat.gif , seems like you have so much times to watch three market rclxub.gif
yok70
post Apr 6 2013, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 6 2013, 09:07 PM)
sweat.gif , seems like you have so much times to watch three market  rclxub.gif
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It's my hobby already, very entertaining game. tongue.gif
ochedwin
post Apr 7 2013, 12:19 AM

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Abdul Taib contesting with Lim Kit Siang for Gelang Patah post..
Do you guys think this is a positive news for Tebrau Teguh and UEM Land?
river.sand
post Apr 7 2013, 08:24 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 10:24 PM)
It's my hobby already, very entertaining game.  tongue.gif
*
If you don't do day (night) trading, no need to monitor at US market at night kua hmm.gif

Hobby or not, do take care of your health. Or all the dollars (US & HK) and yen you make go into paying medical bills tongue.gif
SUSStupidGuyPlayComp
post Apr 7 2013, 10:09 AM

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yawn.gif ajib said PKR won, share market collapse, BN won share market up........

I hate that the RM1200 BRIM policy, kind of wasting money (unless i eligible) mad.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 7 2013, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 10:24 PM)
It's my hobby already, very entertaining game.  tongue.gif
*
Haha.. my heartbeat also jupm very fast these two weeks. In Hk,Wiped out all my gain and start to eat my capital. But I tell myself need calm down.
Since you interested in hk, should be your time to buy more already.
But I am sad the post ge effect here not what I am expected cry.gif

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