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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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skiddtrader
post Apr 2 2013, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Neo18 @ Apr 2 2013, 02:22 PM)
how is everybody doing in this forum, must be earning alot of money i guess
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Me not earning enough from stocks. Hope to be millionaire like you in the near future. thumbup.gif
skiddtrader
post Apr 4 2013, 03:28 PM

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I think Daiman is a good sell now. Summoning Cheeroy for advice.
skiddtrader
post Apr 5 2013, 12:32 PM

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So whats the news on Daiman? Just theme play or something more in the works.

Today was surprised it gap up in the opening price compared to yesterday's closing. Now 1st half already above RM2.70.


skiddtrader
post Apr 5 2013, 12:48 PM

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For people thinking about crash, what is your expectation? KLCI 1680 to 1200 in a couple of days? 100 point drop? Or a gradual fall like -10 points a day for the whole year?




skiddtrader
post Apr 5 2013, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 5 2013, 12:42 PM)
I can think of is,

- Still undervalued  - Yup, I agree but in terms of future profit rather than landbank re-valuation.
- High cash flow  - Will get more once their Landmark building gets the re-furbishment it needs.
- Potential of revaluation  - re-valuation is just on paper. Unless they develop their land, revaluation exercise is just that.
- Potential of giving special divvy (wah!) - Cannot be special divvy until 70sens... They don't have that kind of cash and they just took a 70 mil loan.
- Potential of M&A target  -  Possible but unlikely as their landbank is not really special and most Iskandar theme players have much much larger land banks.
- Iskandar theme play (cheapest one) - Yeah seems like it.
- Media/Catalyst sees it, FINALLYYY  - haha awareness I agree, this stock is really boring old man stock.
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skiddtrader
post Apr 5 2013, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 5 2013, 12:53 PM)
Dali blog about it few days ago.
http://www.malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/20...t-strategy.html
That's about 8-10% discount from peak.

Sometimes you wish it goes up, it drops.
Sometimes you wish it goes down, it goes up.

So best approach is 50:50. 50% in stock, 50% holding cash.

But I am towards 90% stock now la. tongue.gif
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Thanks for the link.

Yeah even if I am on 35% cash now, but can't really think of letting all the stocks go because I don't think we will see a big crash. A correction or a flash crash but it will recover.
skiddtrader
post Apr 5 2013, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 5 2013, 12:59 PM)
Hehe not asking for 70 sens, if qtr 4 Daiman gives 20 sens, then wet dream liao. wub.gif
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drool.gif That would be such a nice dividend to have.
skiddtrader
post Apr 6 2013, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(alexkos @ Apr 6 2013, 11:03 AM)
should i withdraw fund now? to avoid election crash.
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The election results will not crash the entire market to its knees.

But some counters which depend on government contracts might be affected.
skiddtrader
post Apr 8 2013, 11:55 AM

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I for one look forward to TDM at 7.50. GOGOGO thumbup.gif
skiddtrader
post Apr 8 2013, 12:18 PM

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Daiman seems to be stuck already.
skiddtrader
post Apr 9 2013, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 9 2013, 04:21 PM)
TDM announced 22 cents tax free dividend...  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif

Fly birdie fly.... laugh.gif finally free from someone's curse.....
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FWAH!!! GOGOGO!

Actually last year was 16 sens I think. Surprisingly 22 sens considering the CPO market have not recovered fully.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 9 2013, 04:39 PM
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Apr 10 2013, 09:23 AM)
Nice call gark.

Unexpected higher divvy coupled with bonus issues & split.

One easily make 40c from your call at 4:21pm yesterday.  thumbup.gif
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gark got insider knowledge, because when he announced the dividend, the Bursa announcement website not yet publish. notworthy.gif
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 09:31 AM)
How come not highlighting bonus and split before market closed hmm.gif
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Must ask gark. Since he announced the dividends before everyone knows.

The Bursa announcement for dividends came first before the Multiple Proposals Announcement which came a bit later. Because I only saw the dividend announcement yesterday at first, while the Multiple proposals announcement was not there at the time. Probably the lag of uploading the announcements.

But bonus and split now making me headache... don't know whether to top up or sell to avoid odd lots.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 09:36 AM
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 09:39 AM)
The trick is spotting the dividend and read all the documents.. the 22cent dividend announcement is hidden deep inside the audited annual statement TDM announced yesterday at 3.15 pm.

You open the audited annual statements and see if you can spot it?

P/S A lot of hidden dividend announcement is hidden under Q and annual report....I have found lots of those already. brows.gif
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Ahh no wonder.

I haven't read the full annual report yet. And yeah I also spotted these ninja announcements before in Annual Reports. I believe Daiman was one of it and also Multi-Co. Normally in the Chairman's statement. Sometimes also the Chairman statement will divulge information on their next quarters earnings depending on how far into the quarter when the annual report is released. So it's good to read on companies you are fully vested in.

I also just realised that after the bonus and split, TDM will once again be below RM1 stock or penny stock. Another goreng candidate.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 09:46 AM
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 10:00 AM

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QUOTE(nasni @ Apr 10 2013, 09:55 AM)
Bro is just read the audited  info,  is it on page 59  Part 1? (Proposal during AGM)
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It is stated in page 2 of their annual audited report.


skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 09:58 AM)
Do not mind if it is a goreng king.

But we still can invest based on Values.

Who wants to buy Daiman in permanent coma stage. hmm.gif
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Yeah, TDM was an undervalued fella. Highest I saw was about RM4.90 I think during the peak of the CPO prices. Now already RM4.50+ while CPO is nowhere near the peak, shows that this counter have run up a lot on hot gas as in (more on talk, less on walk)

Daiman stucked already. I think RM2.70 was it's highest for this goreng season, now it will slowly slide down before picking up again if the interest is still there.

skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(nasni @ Apr 10 2013, 10:02 AM)
r u sure?

i read d details on page 59  (Part 1).  i see nothing on page 2
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On page 2 (actual page number, not pdf page number) of their report, under dividends they mentioned that at the forthcoming AGM, 22 sens will be proposed.

Yeah I'm looking at the PDF now, pretty sure you will see the same thing.

Of course Page 59, says the same thing.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 10:07 AM
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(nasni @ Apr 10 2013, 10:09 AM)
i'm reading the PDF  it's page 4 bro, however  page 2 is TOC  biggrin.gif

details is on page 59....      positive  smile.gif
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So what was your question again? hmm.gif
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 10 2013, 10:10 AM)
The splits and bonus do give me  a hint that TDM future earnings would be quite flat for a year or 2 aka tough .

But most investors are excited to jump in and buy now.......
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Looking at the CPO prices and the stagnation, I would agree.

While bonus issue is more of using up their retained earnings to convert to equity, share splits are more for volume generation. Imagine after the exercise, from 240mil shares will become almost 1.5 billion shares. Balance free float from 60 million shares will become 300 million shares.

So in terms of normally traded volume, TDM will see a 5 fold increase based on split shares although value traded would be almost the same. This thinly traded counter will now see a 5-10k volume daily instead of 1-2k volume.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 10:19 AM
skiddtrader
post Apr 10 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 10 2013, 10:48 AM)
For TDM you need to look beyond the CPO price.

They have 40K land in Kalimantan, of which 12k ha has been planted since 2008. This year they will plant another 6k ha. Their initial 6-8k ha has come to fruitation since mid 2012, hence will start to contribute from 2013 onwards. Even at stagnant CPO prices, they will have increased CPO production of +20% in 2013 from the contribution of their kalimantan plantation. Thier first palm oil mill in Kalimantan is scheduled to be operational in mid 2013. Current terrenganu plantation is not efficient as it has been badly abused by the previous owners, hence CPO yield is low at below 20 tpha with oer of 19%. Plantation in Kalimantan is much more fertile volcanic soil, which can potentially yield 23-25 tpha with oer >23%.

There are 2 new hospitals going to be up which will raise the the number of beds by 50% operational end of 2013. Their healthcare division has been growing at a very good CAGR of 17% since 2004. So far at current share prices, all thier land will only cost RM 25k/ha with free hospitals and palm oil mills thrown in, one of the cheapest in the industry. wink.gif
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Thanks for the info. I only have data until 2011 where they have 6575 hectares of young trees (0-3 years) in their Indonesian Operations.

While their hospitals operation growth is very good, it is still so small compared to their plantation business in terms of revenue and profit.

Oh yeah, also just noticed that the 22 sens dividend for 2012 is much higher in terms of div/eps. While historically, TDM always pay close to 30%, this time 22 sens of 41 sens 2012 EPS is closer to 50%.

This post has been edited by skiddtrader: Apr 10 2013, 11:23 AM

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