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 Fundsupermart.com v2, Learn about DIY unit trust investing

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SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 15 2013, 10:46 AM)
Thanks Uncle Looi thumbup.gif

Some ppl don't bother to read older posts to search for info grumble.gif
Hope that UTs can help u achieve your retirement financial needs nod.gif
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just like me lor last month..i just managed to by luck surf into LYN....never know about LYN before.
started to read some posts and realised "pink" knows alot..and i asked you lor....
fyi, yr advise abt going to FSM to try the portfolio selection guide and the posts of other sifus did made me wiser i think.

looking at what and by why i selected a certain funds for my portfolio, YES, if all goes well, this UT can achieve my retirement financial needs

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 15 2013, 10:53 AM
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 15 2013, 10:52 AM)
I am here to learn, share information on investing and gain market outlook. No right or wrong.. I think if you stick with your plan and follow it, you will see results. But of course, if market slumps, everybody will be affected la. When that time happens, stay focus and stick to the plan.

Well, saying is easy.. when actually experience it, gawd knows what I will be doing. Maybe sell low and buy when high..
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yes, u r right...only GOD know what one would react when the mkt are down, my 1st experience on my UT crash was in 2001....tech bubble burst big time. that time dun know abt bond....just hentam all in 1998 ~ 2000 into tech, growth, telecom, global leaders and all others...
burst 2001...UT down..worst case was 80%...
me ...stick to plan??? where got plan...no more monies, job wise was insecure....layoff was every where...OT cut.
was thinking of surrendering my insurance..but then was told the cash value is to little. luckily, i hv a few some surplus $ and made a daring decision to buy a few small cap stocks. 2 are bad till now..3 are VERY GOOD.

when the mkt are down...YES,..i too panicked.
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(mois @ May 15 2013, 11:11 AM)

Conclusion, stop speculating. Keep significant cash in case market drop.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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keep CASH in where? Bond funds are also affected when the mkt are down. am i right? hmm.gif

you sifus that had experienced the mkt crash...did you sell yr bond and buy into Eq funds? rclxub.gif
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 15 2013, 11:15 AM)
Golden words thumbup.gif

UT portfolio, I'm only keeping 10% cash cos my portfolio is balanced 50/50, slump in equities should be more or less countered by bond rally

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"slump in equities should be more or less countered by bond rally"....i noticed RHB bond slumped too during the 2007...not sure about other bond.
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 15 2013, 12:39 PM)
for investing, to me, there's too many variables - thus i took an idiot-proof method of:
a. overall control structure (Asset Allocation and forced re-allocation triggers & amount )
b. 2 methodologies
+programmatic (DCA / VCA) so that no fear/greed to cloud my simplistic mind
+opportunistic (trend/value) to satisfy ego/hunger for tweaking
c. split my estimated quarterly & yearly resources between the two methodologies
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like i said before: so much to learn, so much more to know...you ppl are fantastic in terms of investing knowledge. notworthy.gif notworthy.gif thumbup.gif

even thought i dun understand much of it rclxub.gif but it sound very deep rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 15 2013, 02:19 PM
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ May 15 2013, 02:04 PM)
To avoid panic, you need a written plan. You need to identify the signal for a market crash and monitor that frequently like every day. When the signal come up, execute your plan to the letter. If you don't do this, when the crash come, you'll panic and act irrationally.
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signal?? how to identified? at that time everyone was enjoying the profits.... there are industries leaders like Bill gates and Alan Greenspan said that the tech stock was too high.....it did not crash immediately...i think only after 10 mths....just imagine if the Thai mkt can go up +40% in a year....so can m'sia stock, i think that is what is happening to allot of ppl mind right now...?
i remember during the good yr in i think 1992 ~3 the m'sia stock mkt was soo good until my remisier does not have credit to buy for me....every auntie & uncle who buy stocks make $$, rclxm9.gif rclxms.gif then it crashed for a while a few years later.... cry.gif cry.gif
so i would appreciate yr advise on how to identify the signal....and also what is in the written plan... icon_question.gif notworthy.gif
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 15 2013, 03:10 PM)
yklooi.. you have had few times experience on major downturn. Can you share with me roughly it takes how long from peak of KLCI index to drop 10%, 20% then to rock bottom?

I am putting a FORCE rebalance to a defensive portfolio (20% EQ, 80% FI) if my peak value in my portfolio to drop 15%. Not sure if this figure is reasonable?
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hmm.gif i goggled...
klci market chart, found the chart and below is the website...see if this is what you wanted
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EKLSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

what is see is that, not all funds dropped at the same time and at the same constant rate...maybe it is their holdings.
so difficult to set....i think.....see RHB Bond annual report it dropped i think about 20% in 2007(if i am not mistaken)

if you did, pls share...i am also interested to hv a worst case scenario view of my portfolio.
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ May 15 2013, 04:16 PM)
There are a number of ways to get the signal(s), some complex and some simple. I'm not going to mention the complex way as I'm not interested in them. I'm a trend follower, so I just look at price action. A simple one is using monthly moving average (MMA) of the US stock market. I like to use SPY ETF as I trade this regularly. SPY is the ETF for SPDR S&P 500 index. If the 10MMA cross below 20MMA, the market is in trouble. Looking at 2008, it cross in June 2008. There are other indicators to confirm this or even provide early warning such as MACD and Slow Stochastic (SS). SS even provide early warning as early as Jan 08.

As for the plan, it is as complex or simple as you want it to be. Simple one like
1. Liquidate all equity in KLSE & US stocks. 100% cash in standby etc.
2. Rebalance UT to 80% fixed income etc.

Then you need re-entry signal. Can use the same indicators such as 5MMA cross above 10MMA with confirmation from MACD & SS etc.
1. Buy 10 lot of XYZ stock etc.
2. Rebalance UT to 80% equity etc.

You need to write down the plan and execute. Don't hesitate and make emotional decision. Don't keep a stock just because it is making tons of profit and you are getting good dividend. Just sell it and wait for price to fall and start to recover before getting in again.

That is simple explaination on looking at signal and execute your plan. Don't blame me if you sell all and the price keep going up  whistling.gif
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Thank you, kim yee73. notworthy.gif rclxms.gif notworthy.gif
but will some SIFUs analyse that n provide a simpler method where laymen like me can master?....best if in Excel format....where i can just key in the numbers and then the "ALERT" will trigger....if there is a signal. is it possible?? sweat.gif rclxub.gif
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 15 2013, 05:47 PM)
Bottom line - IMHO, it's our "personal economy" that we shd be triggered, NOT the world's or markets' economy triggers.

eh - BOMBASTIC ka?
simple common Yinglish lar - bombastic will mean i bring out shake(my)spear thee thy thou spake etc  doh.gif
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wow, that is amazing...so fast u get what they are saying liao notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif
and managed to simplified it.
...me still goggle and yahooing.... rclxub.gif rclxub.gif sweat.gif
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ May 15 2013, 09:21 PM)
Pink is a big shark also. Rebalance one when the other one rose and cause his portfolio to be 'out-of-balance' tongue.gif
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someone told me yesterday, accountant mah....must always precise rclxm9.gif
at first i thought to rebalance, need to sell off the extra,...i was wrong...it was the reverse...very interesting....top up discipline.
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ May 15 2013, 11:14 PM)
I would like to know all sifus here invested UT for long term investment.
Did anyone of you doing short term trade to make profits?
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as for me,....i follow this advise,
"I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years."

Warren Buffett
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ May 15 2013, 11:33 PM)
So u didn't invest in stock market?
Just fully focus in UTs?
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see
"QUOTE(mois @ May 15 2013, 11:11 AM)"

"Conclusion, stop speculating. Keep significant cash in case market drop."

i just started UT investing ...will try to review after 3 ~ ^ mths
SUSyklooi
post May 15 2013, 11:57 PM

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QUOTE(transit @ May 15 2013, 11:46 PM)
4 Truths To Follow To Increase Your Market Returns
When it comes to your investments, if you feel your emotions are getting the best of you, come back to the following truths:

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wow rclxms.gif well said.

almost like what "wong" quoted in (go see page 99)
QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 15 2013, 12:39 PM)

but is a simplified english way. rclxm9.gif

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 15 2013, 11:59 PM
SUSyklooi
post May 16 2013, 12:10 AM

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just looked at the Japan Stock market chart...just for arguement sake. it one were to have bought stocks between 1987 to 1991 then hold after it crashed at abt 38000 point.....until now no matter how much the topping up/DCA will not help till today at 15000 points

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 16 2013, 12:11 AM
SUSyklooi
post May 16 2013, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 16 2013, 12:12 AM)
Dividends leh...
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just remember, i was relying on this type of chart and in year 1998, i betted against the trend...i said Japan had been down for 10 years, now should be the time....cos that time tech stock up...japan has alot of tech com...i go into United Japan Growth fund.....it up a while...then die when bubble burst....till now...not much gain if were to calculate the opportunity cost lost...that was history...learned a pricey lesson...no DCA for me
SUSyklooi
post May 17 2013, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ May 17 2013, 09:59 AM)
Yen weakening is good for Japanese companies who have large overseas business. Automobile and CE manufacturers will benefit a lot of it!

This will also bring good sentiment to Japanese equities.
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rclxms.gif Good for those that are holding oskuob asia Pacific fund.
i dun hv.
will enter Hwang Sel Asia Quantum & Asia Infrastructure...anyone want interested for the trill sweat.gif sweat.gif ?

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 17 2013, 10:53 AM
SUSyklooi
post May 17 2013, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ May 17 2013, 11:08 AM)
Apek, lu sudah bersara, masih mau thrill? sweat.gif

Lu mau thrill, adik bawa lu pergi pub peluk amoi brows.gif
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itu tak boleh lah...nanti my ear kena tear out. ha-ha...
back from an invest talk....very posivite outlook for M'sia and Asia region.
M'sia Mkt got alot of catching up with the neighboring countries.
Asia now is in slow growth and world has lots of equities.

FSM got eq in Japan? OSKuob Asia Pac has 38% in Jpn but the fund size is 10 million ok??

SUSyklooi
post May 17 2013, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 17 2013, 12:00 PM)
I am interested in Infrastructure. What makes you interested as well?
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hmm.gif i guess, after omiting US, Euro, Bric, China,...left only Asia...
how abt u? what make u interested in that too? sad.gif
SUSyklooi
post May 17 2013, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(JinXXX @ May 17 2013, 12:36 PM)
+1 smile.gif

how does it compare to the PM's telco n infra fund ? except the exclusion of reit
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hmm.gif return wise, i think PM telco n infra for the last 3 years is less than Hwang...
i think PM is abt 25% ttl last 3 yrs, hwnag is abt >50% ...i may be wrong, just go analyse yr self
maybe hw got more risk than pm...
SUSyklooi
post May 18 2013, 02:39 PM

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saw this at the Public mutual V4 thread..under post in page 57.
looks interesting....eventhough i know not about this. usefull to you??
posted by xuzen on 18 may time 01.49pm

"I was a Pub-Mut UTC and as such I am privy to internal data. Hence using those data's I plot them into financial formula to evaluate them scientifically.

The two ratios I used are:

I)Risk Adjusted Performance Ratio (aka Modigliani-2 ratio)

and

II) Jessen Alpha Ratio"

Xuzen


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