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 EPF DIVIDEND, EPF

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prophetjul
post Sep 30 2021, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Sep 30 2021, 04:17 PM)
no,..could not find them...
maybe if look at each fund individually can,
have to manually compile each individually from "since inception date"

but then,.....some would says,..."past performance may not be an indication of continue or would be future performance too"  mega_shok.gif  doh.gif
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Thats the difficulty. For me, I need to see a 3% premium over EPF's return to be compelling enough to takevthevrisk.
Then it's picking the ones that will achieve this. That is the difficult part. laugh.gif I
prophetjul
post Oct 1 2021, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Sep 30 2021, 05:28 PM)
problem is those with high net worth treating epf as investment vehicle instead of retirement funds. so yeah.
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MOre like treating EPF as a bond fund since 2.5% is guaranteed. So essentially it IS a retirement fund.
prophetjul
post Oct 1 2021, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Oct 1 2021, 09:21 AM)
i think it is BETTER than a bond.
EPF is Govt guaranteed and payout guaranteed at 2.5% min (unless Syariah one, no guaranteed 2.5%)

it is a retirement fund only if it can be used to accumulates enough for desired retirement uses..
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Indeed, the yield is generally higher than bonds. Plus one can withdraw intermittently during our retirement years.
prophetjul
post Oct 1 2021, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Oct 1 2021, 09:38 AM)
So can treat it as bond in a balanced portfolio.
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Yes. That is what i am doing.
prophetjul
post Oct 2 2021, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(c64 @ Oct 2 2021, 07:09 AM)
Looking at the trend gonna go down...hopefully can maintain at 5%...
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The earnings is up. Why should you be so pessimistic?
prophetjul
post Oct 4 2021, 08:25 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 3 2021, 05:27 PM)
Less writedowns and even if earnings is up EPF might decide to pay the earning stocks in later forward date might be 3 years from now  doh.gif
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2nd half may be just as good. Who knows the speculative bits? Nothing to be pessimistic about at this stage.
prophetjul
post Oct 4 2021, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 4 2021, 11:26 AM)
It will be bad because 1st half was not lockdown while Q3 is lockdown stage so it depends on Q4 to breakeven because as you can see forecast for Malaysia has been bad has been downgrade twice this year itself  doh.gif
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i have not analyzed in detail the earnings of EPF. But since approx 50% of income is from foreign investments, i would estimate that local holdings which are mostly made up of government bonds will be less impacted in spite pf EPF's striking losses in Top Glove and Serba Dinamik! laugh.gif
prophetjul
post Oct 9 2021, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 8 2021, 11:50 PM)
So we know only 15% goes abroad with another 30% still stuck in Bursa  doh.gif
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But they have not reported what are the returns on the 15% allocated out to the fun managers.
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(romuluz777 @ Oct 26 2021, 01:20 PM)
The EPF should remove the RM60K annual limit for self-contribution, or at least incease it at at least RM100K.
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Its already getting too big. Why should they increase it for the rich?
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(c64 @ Oct 26 2021, 02:27 PM)
Why you complain? It's just an investment vehicle for your retirement. The poor has no money to invest anyway. It doesn't hurt them.
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I am not complaining. Just pointing out a fact. EPF is not meant to be an investment vehicle.
Its a bloody retirement fund!
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(c64 @ Oct 26 2021, 03:06 PM)
Yes...retirement fund. Korek. Does it hurt poor people if the people who has more money put it into EPF? They are not going to lose more money if EPF do bad, and not going to make more either if EPF does well. Poor and Rich will get the same x% return by EPF. Fair and Square.

So...why is it a problem? People who work hard their whole lives, saves more, build a bigger retirement fund. Anything wrong?
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Nothing wrong with wanting more money.
However, when a fund gets too big, the returns inevitably reduces. So yes, it does affect the poorer ones indirectly.
So fair to all, keep it as a retirement fund for the rakyat and not an investment vehicle for the rich. They have other avenues for investing.
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(c64 @ Oct 26 2021, 03:13 PM)
This is only an assumption. What if it gets better? If all the big accounts leave EPF, what is there to invest if there is no fund? Also will affect the poor. EPF should not discriminate, it is not a Social Security Avenue. Malaysia already have enough racial discrimination, don't need another one.
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It is not an ASSumption. Bigger the fund size, the more difficulty in achieving higher returns.
EPF will always be big enough since it is the nation's retirement fund even with contributions from M40 downwards. It is nothing discriminatory to stop allowing additional funding apart from salary related contributions. It is reasonable.
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(c64 @ Oct 26 2021, 03:22 PM)
It's your opinion. Let's just agree to disagree. It's still discrimination to me.
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Of course its my opinion. rolleyes.gif
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 26 2021, 05:48 PM)
Not necessary because if it’s bigger and difficult to achieve higher returns it shows that the fund manager and management is not capable at all  doh.gif  doh.gif  doh.gif

Basically your theory is rubbish as there is bigger funds still achieving higher returns because the fund management itself
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Bear in mind EPF is effectively an open ended fund with continuous cash inflow

Beforeyourubbishyourself,

QUOTE
The outcome is clear, though: When the fund manager is unable to maintain the fund's investment strategy and therefore cannot produce returns comparable to its historical record, the fund has become too large.


https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutua...d/03/071603.asp

Oh and since you are so smart, you should be managing EPF to bring back the Good old days of 8% returns. Low in your capability I would think. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Oct 26 2021, 06:03 PM
prophetjul
post Oct 26 2021, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 26 2021, 06:14 PM)
1stly you can’t compare a pension fund with mutual fund solely because both are different in terms of investment decisions and executions

8% is easy to achieve in EPF but because they are actually they keeping the gains only to be paid out 5 years later

2nd the board is riddle with political decision investment hence its hampering growth instead

You wanna compared pension funds go compared with the best world instead like the linked of Danish,Norge and Swedes pension fund instead  doh.gif
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Semantics.
Is a pension fund managed by fund managers? Is a mutual fund managed by fund managers?
What is different ? Strategies and objectives.

8% is easy. I guess the Norge fund managers are stupid then. Only average 6.5% since 1998.

Trying red herrings to the discussion is unwanted. GROWING SIZE VS PERFORMANCE


prophetjul
post Oct 27 2021, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Oct 26 2021, 06:32 PM)
6.6% past 20 years but you didn’t factor appreciation of the currency and buying power and answers is No  doh.gif

Go compared RM devaluation itself for the past 35years and your money EPF instead getting devalued day by day  doh.gif
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More red herrings. Managers stupidity, currency,......why stop at that.....start comparing Norway's oil reserves with Malaysia.....dont
stop...there.....politics and corruption.
prophetjul
post Oct 27 2021, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Oct 26 2021, 09:04 PM)
These articles are on (mid size) mutual funds run by single fund managers. I doubt provident funds are being run using stock-picker mentality at least from my interactions with EPF from that side of the table smile.gif
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Another article to explain the difficulties of large funds, especially an open ended one like EPF

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mutual-fun...matter-1.809389

QUOTE
As more and more investors are attracted to a specific mutual fund, the manager is presented with a significantly large amount of cash. The risk that arises in this situation is that to put the cash to work as soon as possible, some managers may purchase additional instruments that are not optimal for the fund's investors.
To determine when size begins to hinder performance, we need to ask at what point the positive relationship between fund size and management efficiency becomes negative — that is, the point at which the negative effects of the size of a fund cancels out the positive effects of a fund's total return performance.  It is difficult to determine exactly at what point this occurs, but in general, when the fund manager is unable to maintain the fund's investment strategy and produce returns comparable to fund's historical record, the fund has become too large

prophetjul
post Oct 27 2021, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Oct 27 2021, 12:36 PM)
It’s not another article, the same as the investpedia page. Check the source. Same reasoning as I mentioned before, a small mutual fund run by a single manager. EPF is a provident fund and passed this stage at inception.
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Whether it is small, mid or large and its all relative, this statement still holds true:

QUOTE
Open-ended mutual funds have a great track record of expanding to mammoth sizes quickly as investors flock to these growing funds. But it is possible for funds to get too large and cause problems for fund managers and investors. In this article we'll show you how to handle the rapid growth of these funds and how to determine whether these funds are a good fit for your investing strategy.


That is the reason EPF had to venture overseas, no?

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Oct 27 2021, 01:20 PM
prophetjul
post Oct 27 2021, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Oct 27 2021, 02:44 PM)
Venturing overseas is also because foreign investors pushed Malaysia since some time back to relax on govt ownership in Bursa. There is limited liquidity for them to be interested in the market.
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Sorry. But what has foreign investors into Msia got to do with EPF going offshore?
prophetjul
post Oct 31 2021, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Oct 30 2021, 04:45 PM)
Thanks. Money market, fixed income and real estate - I think >6% is wishful thinking unless they increase on junk bonds and commercial properties outside of prime locations (like Katowice..). Most of the members are happy with this strategy and returns. Bear in mind the interest rate environment in Malaysia.

The focus on increasing people’s EPF balance should always come from talking about wages in the country. I have a hard time understanding how EPF can commend the govt for extending 9% contribution rates when it obviously is not in their interest.
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Politics is in ALL aspects of life in Malaysia. Have you not realise this yet? biggrin.gif
This includes the names of Malaysian made whiskey! laugh.gif

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