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 EPF DIVIDEND, EPF

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Cubalagi
post Feb 1 2020, 01:22 PM

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I mentioned this before, Epf current asset allocation is roughly 50% Bonds, 40% Equities, 5% property n infra assets and 5% money market/cash. More than half of the equity exposure is outside Malaysia.

The reason epf buy and sell some counters is diue to the outsourcing of some its funds to external fund managers. Fund managers could have different strategies. Epf internal fund manager could be taking profit, while an external epf fund manager could be buying it cheap from his perspective. This is good, because you have diversity of views. They don't discuss before hand, otherwise that would be market manipulation and collusion.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 1 2020, 01:23 PM
Cubalagi
post Feb 1 2020, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(xcxa23 @ Feb 1 2020, 05:46 PM)
lots like some of them remember about the speculation for 2018 dividend

i remember quite alot ppl surprise that 2018 dividend at 6.15% as many speculating less than 6% given how bad klse and the on going trade war

https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/ber...ocid=spartanntp
Pong Teng Siew, ketua bahagian penyelidikan di Inter Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd menjangkakan bayaran dividen KWSP pada 2018 kurang daripada 5%.
Profesor Yeah Kim Leng dari Universiti Sunway meramalkan KWSP membayar dividen lebih rendah tahun ini.
“Ekonomi dunia dan tempatan tidak begitu baik tahun lalu,” katanya.
“Saya menjangkakan 5% ke 6% dividen sebagai wajar berdasarkan kepada suasana sukar yang KWSP terpaksa hadapi tahun lalu,” beliau memberitahu FMT.
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Basically in 2018 they were interviewing ppl who were still clueless about EPF strategy of diversifying abroad.

Cubalagi
post Feb 1 2020, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Feb 1 2020, 06:11 PM)
EPF has only started to invest overseas in 2018?
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No.. They started as early as 2012 IIRC, but gradually increased their exposure. Compare with PNB who only starting out
Cubalagi
post Feb 1 2020, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 1 2020, 08:14 PM)
Equity market performance is one part of the dividend equation, but there is another portion that most of us tend to overlook. 50 odd% of all assets of EPF is actually in Malaysian government bond-like instruments.

and we know BNM has been cutting interest rates. rates down means bond prices up.
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Epf does not take into account unrealised capital gains for dividend distribution. So while Malaysian govt bond prices have gone up nicely last year (about 9% based on abfmy) , it will not matter to epf dividend unless epf sells the bonds. And usually, AFAIK, epf keep bonds for the long haul.
Cubalagi
post Feb 2 2020, 12:41 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Feb 1 2020, 11:30 PM)
If unrealised capital gains are not taken into account for dividend distribution.....
So will unrealised capital losses too?
If yes, then if mkts crashed, then don't sell any, then no losses, then distribution is as per nothing is wrong in the mkts?
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Yup, that is how EPF, PNB etc work..otherwise how can they pay those great dividends during those crisis times?

But actually for losses, if it is big enough, they will recognize an impairment. And this will be deducted from profits and will impact dividends. How much is internal policy, which makes it kind of scary. (However under mfrs 9 I saw that there are some changes, I don't know for better or worse as I haven't studied it).

But that's how LTH n LTAT got into trouble, they were very liberal in not recognizing the impairments. They just pretended the hole didn't exist until new management comes in and saw.. Shit what a big hole!

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 2 2020, 12:41 AM
Cubalagi
post Feb 2 2020, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Feb 2 2020, 02:22 PM)
For listed companies which EPF hold substantial shares, yes. Companies are required to report the change in substantial shareholder's interest.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...ny_announcement

You can see EPF quite often in the announcement list as "EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD"
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No such thing for bonds tho.. Reporting is only to BNM.
Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2020, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Feb 17 2020, 06:57 PM)
any clue what the rate would be?
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Last night I dreamt it's 5.9%.
Cubalagi
post May 6 2020, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(Kcee @ May 6 2020, 03:53 PM)
7% increment and 6% return annually and consistently... That's why it sounds easy as a a cake.... But in reality for most forummers, those percentages are numbers to be chased by sacrificing a lot of effort.
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7% pa increment depend on individual capability.

But I don't think we will be seeing EPF returns of 6% coming in the future for a while.

Cubalagi
post Jun 19 2020, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jun 19 2020, 08:55 AM)
Its normal.

Even in developed nations, the retirement age has to be delayed due to inadequate funds for retirement.
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Developed nations in the west have good social security system. Meaning you get some income when you retire, even if you have no savings. Not much, but covers essentials to survive. But we, unless we are pension eligible govt servants, only have EPF and our own additional savings.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jun 19 2020, 09:03 AM
Cubalagi
post Jun 19 2020, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jun 19 2020, 09:05 AM)
But they are also forcing the retirees to delay their retirement. The pension system does not have enough to cater to their retirement. So in effect the system is failing.  They do contribute to their pension funds too. Much like EPF.
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My point is that they have an additional level of income protection other than a fund contribution type system like epf. We dont have any.

Of course this pension system has its own problems and is underfunded right now, esp due to low interest rates. But their govt will just print money later when it becomes due.
Cubalagi
post Nov 3 2020, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(danielmckey @ Nov 3 2020, 01:02 PM)
Gomen still got money to give dividend?
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EPF dividend doesn't come from gomen.
Cubalagi
post Nov 4 2020, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(danielmckey @ Nov 4 2020, 10:58 AM)
Read this from EPF website...

KWSP website.
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This doesn't say EPF dividends come from government.

EPF dividends come from the EPF fund performance However the goveement guarantees a minimum 2.5% return if the fund doesn't achieve that. (and this is only for convetional, not shariah).


Cubalagi
post Nov 9 2020, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Nov 9 2020, 09:07 AM)
as per 9 Nov 2020 article,

Tengku Zafrul said Malaysia needed to think of a long-term solution for EPF contributors because there were structural issues that the country must tackle in the medium to long term.

According to EPF data, 32 per cent of total contributors only have an average balance of RM1,000 in Account 1, while another 10 per cent of the contributors have an average balance of RM5,000.

"Hence, 42 per cent of EPF contributors have a balance of RM5,000 and below. This is one of the structural issues that we need to overcome."

sweat.gif  sweat.gif
https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/epf...l?ocid=msedgntp

just hope that that data of this (42%) is AFTER the data of those that had taken out RM6k form the i lestari programs
"The i-Lestari facility allows EPF members aged 55 and below to withdraw between RM50 to RM500 a month for 12 months through March 31, 2021, subject to available funds in the members' own EPF Account 2."
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/06/...0%20per%20month.

if this 42% is not inclusive the previous i lestari program,  hmm.gif just wondering, what will this 42% be like after taking into consideration of this latest budget proposed withdrawal of RM500 x 12 again.
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Report says Account 1.so it should exclude ilestari.
Cubalagi
post Nov 9 2020, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Nov 9 2020, 09:50 AM)
hmm.gif what will the numbers be if after taking into consideration of the "allowed" withdrawal from a/c 1 as proposed in Budget 2021?
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500 x12 = 6000

So if u have only 5k in Acc 1. Then it's zero by Oct.
Cubalagi
post Nov 9 2020, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Nov 9 2020, 10:22 AM)
sweat.gif OMG shakehead.gif  doh.gif
in that case, then there is a possibility of 42 per cent of EPF contributors will have a balance of RM5,000 0 and below 0 in their a/c 1
sad.gif
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EPF will be coming out with the conditions of withdrawal soon. Will need to see what the conditions are. Govt is pushing for a more easier withdrawal.

Unfortunately, this policy is forced onto epf by the govt.

Expect next 15 years onwards, this country will face a retirement funding crisis.
Cubalagi
post Nov 18 2020, 08:50 AM

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The biggest problem when it comes to EPF maintaining its % return is that it has become too big, n coninues to grow bigger every year. So this covid withdrawal facility, I view as a good thing for EPF portfolio performance wise.

It's not good for the contributors who withdraw though, if they don't top up their retirement savings. Next 10-20 years we will get hit by a retirement crisis.



Cubalagi
post Nov 24 2020, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 24 2020, 10:03 AM)
Thanks.

Dont know whether to be happy or sad to see this list! So dominant in Msian shares. OK if it has no political hands in there.
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What matter is the total value of holdings vs size of EPF fund. Don't think overall is that big % wise. I think nowadays they have as much, if not more, equity overseas exposure vs local exposure.
Cubalagi
post Nov 24 2020, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(TheEquatorian @ Nov 24 2020, 04:09 PM)
This seems to be their equity positions in the respective company? Are the investments ranked according to size also ie the no1 is the largest domestic equity investment for EPF? I don’t think so.

To me this only shows EPFs stake in companies not their actual equity value. I am not sure what to do with this info, besides that I do not think EPF should be the major stakeholder in any company. It is a pension fund not an investment holding company.

Any data on how many % their local equity in Bursa Malaysia is compared to the entire fund?
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The list is not ranked based on biggest EPF exposure vis-a-vis EPF fund size, it's from perspective of the companies itself.

First on the list is Mbsb at 65.39%. Mbsb has a market cap of RM3. 98b as of today. 65.38% x 3.98 means value of EPF holdings is RM2. 6b.

Second on the list is RHB at 43%.RHB has a RM19. 97b market cap. 43% x 19.97 is RM8. 59b.

So for this two is 2.6b +8.59b = 11.19b. That's the value of EPF holdings.

At the end of 2019, EPF had RM924.75b in assets.

https://www.kwsp.gov.my/-/epf-delivers-soli...hallenging-2019

Meaning for the first two companies is roughly 11.19/924.75 = worth 1. 2% of EPF portfolio. I said roughly because I'm comparing todays valuation for the companies with EPF asset size at end of 2019.

You can go through the list, calculate like I did and add it all up. I'm too lazy to do it.. 😆

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Nov 24 2020, 11:02 PM
Cubalagi
post Nov 26 2020, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Nov 26 2020, 03:55 PM)
per 18 Nov article....

EPF: Necessary measures in place to ensure strong, resilient liquidity

“With regards to the sale of assets under these extraordinary circumstances to ensure that there is a cash buffer to meet the needs of all our members, especially to prepare for the i-Sinar facility to assist members who are severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, the fund will take all necessary measures to ensure our liquidity remains strong and resilient,” said EPF.

EPF added that it regularly looks out for opportunities to acquire as well as sell assets and that it is taking all opportunities to realise profit and to invest in good assets with acceptable risk adjusted returns.

“We are guided by our SAA to ensure we meet our risk adjusted return. With our significant presence in the domestic market, we are mindful of any market impact,” said the statutory pension fund.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/epf-...lient-liquidity
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Yup, look at EPF net inflows every year and the size of their funds in money market and deposits. I'm not worried about it.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Nov 26 2020, 11:20 PM
Cubalagi
post Dec 23 2020, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Dec 23 2020, 12:23 PM)
Yes, the KWSP has historically never been above ASB's rate. It is a good indicator of future harbinger.
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Last year EPF dividends beat ASB if u exclude the bonus.

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