Look it up in the EPF Annual Report.. can be found in their website.

Malaysia is different from US in terms of baby boomers. Our "baby boom" started in the 80s..

Nope.. Let me tell u how..

What happened was that starting from around 2011-2012 or so, EPF started to aggressively diversify overseas. Particularly into US equities. They actually increased their equities allocation in total. 2 things happened. US had a bull market until end 2017 and the MYR crashed. EPF states its income and dividends in MYR, hence they made a hell of profits. They could declared more than the 6+%, but I guess they are saving some profits for rainy days.

For whatever it's worth, I can tell you that EPF is the best among the govt funds. This is so far lah.. I can't tell u whats going to happen in the future.

FYI. EPF doesn't declare mark up gains of bonds as revenues/profits... They only consider the interest payments.

Last time PH oppo, they can talk cock about everything. The fact is EPF funds have become too big to be absorbed 100% to Malaysian market.

Even PNB now got green light to go overseas big. N their Chairman is Zetti.. PH trusted. But its now late in the game. US market is at historical high. Ringgit is weak. It's much more difficult n risky..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Sep 7 2019, 11:55 AM

EPF portfolio allocation is basically about:
40% Equities (stock market)
50% Fixed Income (Govt n corporate bonds)
5% Real Estate
5% Cash (Money Market)

Out of the 40% Equities, actually about 60% are in overseas stock markets.

EPF is a great retirement and investment product. This is one part where Malaysians are lucky. It's capital protected with a minimum guaranteed returns.

Having said that, there are 2 investment principles that I hold:
1. Diversify, do not put all your eggs in one basket
2. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns.

My approach is I don't withdraw from Epf, not for paying loans, Unit Trust investments. . At the same time, I also don't voluntarily add more as well. I try to build up retirement alternatives to EPF, in my case, properties and direct stock market investments.

However, there is one situation where I perhaps will withdraw from Epf, and that is if we face a great market crash sort of thing. Say KLCI falls below 1000. I will withdraw from Epf and put into stocks (I'm already entitled to as balance above RM1m)..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Sep 16 2019, 11:05 AM

No problems. I can wait for more than 10 years.

It's expected to be lower than last year, but it won't fall below 5%.

Nowadays, EPF is not as exposed to KLSE, unlike PNB/ASx. EPF asset allocation is basically 50% Bonds, 40% Equities, 5% Real estate n infra (Eg PLUS) and 5% money market. Probably at least half of the equity allocation is overseas markets which have done well this year. Compare this to ASB which is 70% Equities and mostly still in KLSE.

My guess is EPF return will be 5.5%, to give face to ASB.. 😆

EPF doesn't work like Unit Trust. The EPF dividends can only be paid from realized gain, dividends and interests. Realized gains mean they have to sell the shares at a profit to book it as dividends. But problem is every month they get lots of money coming in, which means they have to buy something.

On top of that, the foreign investments is still less than 30% of their portfolio. KLSE had terrible 2 years since PH came to power. Epf also tend to keep some profits to reserves for really "rainy days".

That's why I expecting less than last years 6.15%, but not horribly so. Between 6%-5.5% is my guess .

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Dec 30 2019, 06:17 PM

If EPF higher then ASB sure got people say a certain race di anak-tirikan..

Most of these UTs are NAV increase.. Not realized gains.

It is.. But the performance UT shows are NAV increases, of which only a part are realized gains, but a larger chunk is likely marked to market valuations (holdings not sold).

As I said earlier, EPF doesn't work like UT. UT can hv negative returns in one year. It's apples to oranges.

You can look at EPF published quarterly results. For first 3Q 2019, they are already behind the first 3Q of 2018. At the same time, we know their asset size continued to grow from contributions. For them to beat last year 6.15%, their 4Q will have to be extremely good. I admit it is a possibility, but right now I will stick to a lower dividend forecast of between 5.5%-6%. And I say maybe on the lower side, to give some face to their PNB bros..

Epf has nothing to do with government taxes

This is the results of new accounting standard MFRS 9, introduced in 2018. Won't impact our dividends. The more important number is the gross investment income.

Again, my projection s that it will be between 5.5%-6%. Lower than last year, but at least as good as ASB.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 17 2020, 12:14 PM

Look at the financial report you shared and the note by the auditor. Epf dividends were paid from profits and realised capital gains of the shares it sold.

PLUS Highway contributes less than 1% of EPF revenues.

I've stated in this thread that it will be 5.5%-6% based on same approach.

However, I think your Q4 estimate is about my conservative estimate. Recall that Q4 was very good for global equities, n hopefully epf benefitted. More likely is that Q4 will beat Q3 numbers.

On contributor growth, I put it at 3%.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 29 2020, 06:49 PM

Nothing to do with government generosity. Epf doesn't need to take money from the government to pay dividends (so far at least). It will be based on their fund performance.

How do you even know that when the results are not out yet?