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 REIT V4, Real Estate Investment Trust

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yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 02:20 PM

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QUOTE(nightzstar @ Jul 17 2013, 02:12 PM)
ohmy.gif thks.. know i now...hopefully they able to reduce their debt
*
I think difficult because they are unable to purchase higher than 6% (current yield) assets from KPJ, and rental revision on hospital is not as good as other assets such as retail malls. Furthermore, their reputation is not as good as CMMT, Axreit or Sunreit. Those 3 REITs can get private placement at good price quite easily to lower debt. nod.gif

yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 02:27 PM)
anyone looking at sunreit?

1.47-1.48 = 5.5% yield. other malls... cmmt, pav, igb now 5% or so.

or is sunreit just being beaten down like all the rest in the q?

wonder who's dumping today since it's not epf...
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How you know not EPF? The announcement will only be made after few days.
CMMT and IGBReit's yield is very near to Sunreit as forecast by IBs. Pavreit is about 0.25% behind.
I added some Sunreit today, also some IGBReit. Yesterday added some Pavreit.
Waiting for dividend season coming in next few weeks. thumbup.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(nightzstar @ Jul 17 2013, 02:33 PM)
i see, thanks for the clarification. which mean their dividend payment are not as stable compared to other 3 REITS that you mentioned?
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Dividend payment is fine. Reputation on management team is lacking. For one, they never able to reduce their gearing, which limit the ability to get more loan and inject new assets into the REIT. nod.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 03:45 PM)
well, i just looked at the info provided by the trading platform, up to yesterday.

epf still selling cmmt as of yesterday.

sunreit, no epf selling recently up to yesterday, but shows a no. of "amanahraya trustees" buying - dunno how to interprete that...??
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when you click on the announcement link, it shows you the date of one or more announcements, which are few days to a week or so earlier than the link itself. And that date also not precisely the day they transacted, just the date they announced. So there is no easy way we could be told when exactly they transact unless they told the reporter and came out in newspapers. nod.gif

maybe epf needs to support market when FF leaving, anamahraya doesn't care, they just want cash via dividend. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 17 2013, 05:06 PM
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(kyle_kl @ Jul 17 2013, 03:55 PM)
wow~ you got all mall reits? personally i prefer IGB and Sunreit as i always go Sunway and Midvalley shopping mall  tongue.gif
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i like shopping mah. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 05:41 PM)
i see... tq.

amanahraya... buy sunreit to get 5.5% only to pay 7% dividend?  drool.gif
looking at sg reits taken a bad beating and now somewhat recovering, perhaps myreits will be similar?
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capital gain leh? you think sunreit DPU won't up in future? DPU up will naturally trigger share price up as well. DPU up 10% + share price up 10% = total up 20%. icon_rolleyes.gif
in fact, sunreit's DPU will certainly up quite substantially after Sunway Putra Mall refurbishment completed by 2015. brows.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 17 2013, 08:18 PM
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(cwhong @ Jul 17 2013, 08:26 PM)
Im in sunreit today..... But not the lowest point.....
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lowest is 1.47? I bought today at 1.48. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 09:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 08:37 PM)
wat if capital loss?!

seriously, is it common that one reit or stock just buy another reit or stock to keep going as a reit or stock? drool.gif

or it's the beginning of ar buying over sun?
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my English not good. don't understand what u said. rclxub.gif

capital loss always possible in investment. don't trust anybody, only trust yourself. celebrate if gain, admit the mistake when loss. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 09:43 PM

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bond yield has been falling in recent days.
lets see what happen next. If continues dropping, REIT's buyers will come back.
only time will tell. cool2.gif
yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2013, 09:46 PM)
i'm wondering if it is normal for a reit to buy into another reit?

or is this a sign that amanah is starting to accumulate sunreit shares for a takeover eventually?

any tots?
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Amanahraya is not a reit. It's a government fund.

yok70
post Jul 17 2013, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(wankongyew @ Jul 17 2013, 10:05 PM)
Which bond yields do you check and where do you check it? Sorry, I keep meaning to learn about this bit of the financial world but never get around to it.
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I just watch the taikor bond, US 10-yr bond through finance.yahoo.com. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 05:29 PM

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I've been waiting for Axreit to come down until neck already long. doh.gif
yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(sbsoo111 @ Jul 18 2013, 05:44 PM)
FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Value % Change Time
Global  1,601.48 
-0.07
5:26 AM
          Global X US  1,563.10 
-0.01
5:26 AM
          Americas  1,627.58 
0.00
4:30 PM
          Asia Pacific  1,694.94 
-0.11
5:26 AM
          Europe  1,292.68 
0.21
5:26 AM
          Middle East & Africa  1,951.10 
0.33
5:26 AM
Developed  1,656.71 
-0.15
5:26 AM
          North America  2,043.41 
0.00
4:30 PM
          Developed Asia  1,382.90 
-0.30
5:26 AM
          Developed Europe  1,528.67 
0.23
5:26 AM
Emerging  1,919.04 
0.62
5:26 AM
          Emerging Americas  1,243.82 
0.00
4:15 PM
          Emerging Asia Pacific  2,427.05 
0.77
5:26 AM
          Emerging EMEA  1,774.80 
0.26
5:26 AM
          Emerging Europe  997.99 
-0.19
5:26 AM
          Emerging Middle East & Africa  1,947.32 
0.41
5:26 AM
FTSE RAFI Global ex US Real Estate Index  3,816.44 
-0.04
5:26 AM

sources: http://www.reit.com/DataAndResearch/IndexD...dexReturns.aspx

look like the REITS index is recovering globally
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US 10-yr bond yield had dropped 8% so far. wink.gif
yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2013, 05:49 PM)
this one... from 4.00 to 3.7x, already dropped >5%, ok ma.. biggrin.gif
got sunreit today 1.45, then see it go to 1.44, 1.43... can't get it lowest all the time...

pavreit 1.40, q all day, nothing, wil try again 2morow...
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Retail REITs had dropped 10-12%.
Industrial REITs globally usually trading at 1% higher yield than retail REITs. But our Axreit is trading at even 0.5% lower yield than retail REITs. doh.gif
yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 10:18 PM

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SPH Reit, the real estate investment trust spun off from Singapore
Press Holdings (SPH), is set to raise S$504 million from its initial
public offering, after an overwhelming show of support by
institutional investors. The manager for SPH Reit said on Wednesday it is
offering 308.9 million units under the placement and public tranche, subject to
an over-allotment option, at 90 Singapore cents each. This is at the top end of
the 85 to 90 Singapore cent-range indicated earlier. SPH Reit can raise about
S$278 million from this. It has separately secured S$226 million in
commitments from five cornerstone investors, which subscribed for 251 million
units.


The yield is at 5.7% for FY13 and 5.8% for FY14.
Looks like we can more or less take this yield rate as the bottom for retail REITs in mid-term if any further selling down on REITs. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 18 2013, 10:21 PM
yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 18 2013, 09:43 PM)
It is not about market efficient or not.
It is about money has nowhere to go locally.

Imagine now a local investors sell reit that carry 4~5% yield, and take the cash, where the investors can put the money?
FD? Around 3% only, reit seems more attractive.

Equities?
Equities is not cheap mostly, some at PER 20x as well, yield even on famous and blue chip dividend stocks, yield may also lower that 4~5%, somemore higher risk the reit.

Axisreit DPU is improving over the time and based on its history track record of expansion.

It is the only reit seeing the DPU improving significant with more and more properties being injected, and without needing a single cent from the shareholders.
Shareholders enjoy the improving DPU, and growth in properties portfolio, without doing anything.
So shareholders/investors have good confidence on this reit, and it has the most properties (in number) under its portfolio, so more diversification instead rely on one of a few property.

Also previous buy and dispose activity has reap good realised profit for shareholders as well.

Most Axis reit properties are diversified across, KL valley, Penang, it is not an solely or mostly in iskandar
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I sold 90% of my Axreit in 3.35-3.70. Not yet have the chance to buy back. icon_question.gif

yok70
post Jul 18 2013, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2013, 10:36 PM)
you hv just been explained why u shud buy back, now!  tongue.gif
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if the yield raise to at least 5.5% before tax, I'll buy back. Another 10% to go. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 18 2013, 11:09 PM
yok70
post Jul 19 2013, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(davinz18 @ Jul 19 2013, 06:14 PM)
CAPITAMALLS MALAYSIA TRUST

Income distribution of 4.35 sen per unit (of which 4.32 sen per unit is taxable and 0.03 sen per unit is tax exempt in the hands of unitholders) in respect of the period from 1 January 2013 to 30 June 2013.

EX-date 31/07/2013
Entitlement date 02/08/2013
Payment date  30/08/2013
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Yeah! dividend up 3.8% yoy. thumbup.gif
Revenue up, profit lower. Probably spending more money on expansion work in East Coast Mall? After work done, should see improved DPU. brows.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 19 2013, 08:21 PM
yok70
post Jul 23 2013, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 23 2013, 01:58 PM)
10 Year MGS yield from 01-2001 to 06-2013

[attachmentid=3549186]

Look at the MGS 10 year yield, over the course of 13 years the lowest yield is about 3.2% and the median yield is about 4.5%. The highest yield is about 5.5%.

During the 2008 financial crisis the yield jumped to  4.8% and REITs were then selling at yield of 7%-9% (before tax), typically about 250-400 bps above MGS 10 year.

From 2009 until 2013 you can see the yield compression, which makes the REIT attractive, hence the prices of REIT is going up. Now for the last two months, you can see the MGS yield has already jumped 50 bps to 3.8%. This will likely going to continue until the market comes to an equilibrium of 4.0%-4.5%. This means another 20-80 bps to go.

Fair price for REIT yield will be 6%-8% IF the MGS continue to climb to 4.5%. So with REITs yielding 5%, the REIT price is expected to drop another 20% or so to match the 10 year MGS yield.

However not all REIT is expected to move the same, those with higher quality asset will be more stable.

End lesson : REIT 101 -  tongue.gif
*
Thank you so much for your class. notworthy.gif

From the bond yield graph perspective, if the yield could breakout that 2011 high of around 4.3%, it may turn into uptrend. If they failed to do so, the downtrend since 2008 high may continues or staying sidelines for a little longer.
As for those REITs with good assets and yield growth potential, the drop could be neutralize partially due to it. As for future rentals, I'm still seeing upside potential in the next 5 years for overall market with strategic locations and good quality assets. For instance, East Coast Mall (cmmt), Pavilion Mall (pavreit), The Mines (cmmt), Sunway Putra (sunreit), the two new acquisition malls by Hektar near Penang mainland etc.
However, as yield compression process had no doubt over for now, REIT's investors have to re-adjust their investment mindset on REITs back to yield instead of capital gain now. No more fancy 20-30% upside in a year anymore. Cherroy has been consistently reminding us for this while many of us still fancy on REIT's excellent capital gains in recent years.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 23 2013, 03:15 PM
yok70
post Jul 23 2013, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 23 2013, 05:05 PM)
What is Axreit DPU?

Today sell down to 3.56.
*
estimate 18.9 sen.
net yield 4.76%.
if inline with sunreit, need to drop another 9%. laugh.gif

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