but they totally NOT mention a single word on bond yield and spread, like that totally not important, totally short term panic.
anyway, these people very used to suddenly downgrade TP 30% just like a piece of cake.

major problem is, we don't know how to calculate its future DPU.
and no IB wants to talk to the management for us and write a paper on it.

now, the "premium" attached to high liquidity stocks by IB's TP becomes a doubt. This probably means "premium for high volatility".

eps drops but dpu maintain. very nice!
without FF and epf speculating activities, this is one of the least corrected reit in my profile.
i'm seeing some bottom fishing in recent days even on those after ex date (cmmt).

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 2 2013, 08:06 PM

CIMB's first REIT paper that mentioned bond yield with a downgrade.
I'm guessing they may be writing a REIT sector downgrade according to this? We'll see. Just be cautious.


This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 2 2013, 10:56 PM


Attached File(s)
 pavreit_cimb_020813.pdf ( 485.61k ) Number of downloads: 43

Low profile Hektar now gain a little heat because of its rather low valuation? net yield 7.2% vs peers' 5-5.6%, discount 26% for its less prime assets.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 5 2013, 08:01 PM


Attached File(s)
 Hektar_REIT_2Q13.pdf ( 425.26k ) Number of downloads: 28

This Capital Income fund sold another 3.7m shares after previous 9m shares.
It still has 166m to sell.

Looking good. Continue seeing funds accumulating REITs since last week. Amanahraya Trustees most aggressive on CMMT and Sunreit.

where is the bear? this is fly only.

oops! i posted on wrong thread on this one. I suppose to post on bursa thread.

2 more? 1.25, 1.15. set.

sunreit should be getting much upside dpu FY15 for reopening sunway putra mall. I'm expecting double digit. And that mall has high rental revision potential for its current low ground. That area is not a heat spot, but it's actually so damn near to KL prime area with LRT station. As soon as that area able to "clean up nicely", it could be a stragetic spot of its own such as Midvalley area. I think lah.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 6 2013, 04:22 PM

look at that sunreit sell queue, i bet our Capital Income fund is queuing to sell more.

give me dividend! i want cash!
this quarter good good, got both quarterly+half yearly dividend payers contribution.
bite one tea spoon of sunreit today at 1.33 follow amanahraya trustee. net yield above 6% already.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 6 2013, 05:51 PM

dpu increase. nice! that's all i need to know.

As expected since i saw them started downgrading pavreit valuation according to bond yield hike. I bet cimb is the slowest IB who will continue to downgrade all REITs they cover accordingly.

This one is the most solid performer! Investors willing to buy and not to sell although low yield. Now we know who's the M-REIT king.

The panic is bond yield raising, not the dpu paying. If bond yield raise from 3% to 4%, that's a 33% hike, and REITs valuation will fall 33%. Unless, REIT able to increase dpu by 33% when the bond yield raise that 1%.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 7 2013, 01:08 PM

As in long term (3 years and above) perspective, which is on all stocks I bought in the first place, I think on REITs my concern would be bond yield vs the REIT's DPU increment in future years. If the REIT's DPU increment rate can stay (or exceed) the bond yield hike rate, then I'll keep, otherwise I will cut down holding on rally opportunities. And the "peak" bond yield, probably set at 4.5% for the next 10 years. Consider spread of 2-2.5% (small to midcap and large cap), REIT's yield of 6.5-7% should be quite save for the next 10 years. Therefore, if a REIT able to reach 6.5-7% yield in the next 2 years (I expect at least 2 years time for bond yield able to reach 4.5% if it happens) and good to at least maintain that DPU for the rest of the decade, then the REIT seems save to keep for my view.

Just sharing some thoughts. Please share yours.

Maybank has similar view with Cherroy, that is the interest rate should stay unchanged in 2014. For this, bond yield is expected to normalize back and it's already happening in recent weeks. Looks like REITs at current level should be stable.




Attached File(s)
 Bond_yields_and_impact_on_banks_20130812_MIBv1_4802.pdf ( 688.18k ) Number of downloads: 38

In fact, Maybank sees it not that good, therefore expect interest rate to stay unchanged.
However, CIMB is always optimistic, here's their opinion of possible rate hike 25-50 bp.


Attached File(s)
 Interest_rate_hike___cimb___120813.pdf ( 846.31k ) Number of downloads: 28