Strange thing is Amanahraya has been buying sunreit, raising stake from May 6.89% (201m shares), June 6.91% (201m), starting of July 6.93% (202m), today 7.17% (209m).
Who's smart and who's dump here? While EPF has been cutting its stake over various REITs.

This is USA fund.
However, USA's 10-yr bond yield has been dropping in past few days. Lets see how it goes ahead.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 23 2013, 08:31 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors raised their longer-dated U.S. Treasuries holdings in the latest week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sought to reduce worries about rising interest rates, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
J.P. Morgan Securities, which conducted the survey, said 23 percent of its Treasuries clients on Monday were "long" in their duration on U.S. government debt or owned more longer-dated Treasuries than their benchmarks, up from 21 percent last week.
By holding more longer-dated Treasuries, investors add duration or interest rate risk to their portfolios in anticipation of a market rally, when longer-dated bonds generate higher returns than shorter-dated debt.
Investors have added longer-dated Treasuries since the start of the third quarter following a stampede out of bond funds and exchange-traded funds in late May and June due to fears the U.S. central bank might pare its $85 billion monthly bond purchases later this year and soon follow it with a series of rate hikes.
The market sell-off, which was also stoked by stronger-than-expected jobs data, propelled benchmark yields to 23-month highs in early July. It also kindled concerns about mortgage rates and other interest rates rising too quickly and derailing the economy.
Investors grew less anxious about holding longer-dated Treasuries after Bernanke's semi-annual testimony before Congress.
While sticking closely to the timeline he first announced last month that the Fed would halt its current round of bond buying by mid-2014 when unemployment was projected to be around 7 percent, Bernanke stressed that nothing was certain regarding less bond-purchasing. "Our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, but they are by no means on a preset course," he said.
He added the Fed will likely hold short-term rates near zero for a long time even after it stops buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Longer-dated Treasuries yields hit a two-week low last week in the wake of Bernanke's testimony.
In early Tuesday trading, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly to 2.514 percent but were still below 2.755 percent reached earlier this month, which was a level not seen since August 2011, according to Reuters data.
In J.P. Morgan's latest survey, 13 percent of its Treasuries clients said they were "short" in duration of Treasuries, or owning fewer longer-dated Treasuries than their benchmarks, unchanged from a week earlier.
The share of "longs" exceeded "shorts" by 10 percentage points in the latest week, compared with 8 points last week, J.P. Morgan said.
The share of investors who held Treasuries equal to benchmarks slipped to 64 percent from 66 percent a week earlier.
Among active clients, viewed as making speculative bets in Treasuries, 8 percent said they were short in duration versus their benchmarks, down from 15 percent a week earlier.
The survey showed 15 percent in active "longs," unchanged from the previous week.
This was the first time since mid-June that active longs exceeded active shorts, J.P. Morgan said.
Seventy-seven percent said their longer-dated Treasuries holdings matched benchmarks, up from 70 percent the prior week.
J.P. Morgan surveys 40 to 60 of its Treasuries clients weekly, of which 60 percent are fund managers, 25 percent are speculative accounts and 15 percent are central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
It asks 10 to 20 of its active clients each week about their Treasuries holdings, of which 70 percent are speculative accounts and the rest are money managers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-ad...A3BtaA--;_ylv=3


Judge your own.

Investors started buying bonds after Ben talk.

Axreit waiting for you at 3.30

lets wish removal of 10% tax.

I did some google on bond yield historical graphs, and the results worried me as I'm still quite heavy on REIT even though been selling some.
It seems current 2.5x% bond yield is about the bottom in the graph. Lets not talk about the peak at 14%. The average yield could be 6-8%. If to add a 2.5% on top of that, REIT's yield could be at 8.5-10.5%! That is quite worrying, that means a 50% downwards on current REIT's valuation!
Now, my question is, will bond yield in future resume to that level? How soon will it be?
Can we look at bond yield by comparing it with bank's interest rate? If we are talking about bank's interest rate has to be at above 6%, that only would see bond yield at 6%? Can we say that? If this is true, say in 10 years time, economy stabilize and rate raise to 7% (avg of 6-8%). Then in order for REIT to stay flat at current price, its EPS growth required to reach 90%(7+2.5=9.5% for REIT's valuation, and take current REIT yield at 5%) in 10 years.
Waiting for sifus opinion.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 26 2013, 05:22 AM


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Thanks guys for the feedback.
So I'd conclude a 4-5% interest rate as max for Malaysia in future. Then REIT with good assets and yield 6% should be solid to hold it long term.
Sunreit's gross yield is now at around 5.8%, so net yield is 5.22%. Not close to 6% but close to 5%.

S-REIT recently one after another being upgraded and raising TP by RHB. Most S-REIT now have 6% yield. For M-REIT to reach 6% net yield, we still have 10-20% downside to go from here. However, M-REIT always trade at premium, just like the Nestle story (30x vs its international parent 18.8x as mentioned by you). So probably a gross yield of 6% might be acceptable for local funds to buy.

Is KLCC a REIT? My understanding is, it's more a property stock rather than a REIT stock.

diversified assets, sunreit.
focus on retail and location, igbreit.
both have excellent assets.
my view.

Its REIT part just mean the valuation of the assets are unlocked, that's all. Some other property company also invested in their own property projects, such as Sunway and Hunza. Just that they can't use the rental income as capital for future investment. However, this is only partial true. ie. Sunway can also get rental income from Sunreit.
I mean, isn't KLCC just a property company with part of its investment unlocked? If so, then why the sell down together with other REITs? That doesn't make sense to me.
If my thinking was right, I'm seeing it recover soon.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 26 2013, 04:21 PM

Right.
But what I mean is looking at this stock, how should we valuate it. Shall we valuate it as a REIT or a property stock? This was my question.
And my current thinking is, we should valuate it as a property stock instead of a REIT.

I thought by creating this staple structure, KLCC must distribute those income generated from its REIT partition to shareholders?

This is what I remember. That's why I consider it as just a property stock with stable dividend payment. I'd valuate it as a property stock rather than a REIT stock which yield is much more essential than asset value. I don't understand why all IBs valuate it with DDM based valuation which focus on yield.
KLCC valuation is not cheap though. However, it's still on growth mood. More office buildings ongoing in the prime location.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 26 2013, 05:11 PM

yield are not attractive. i was almost thinking to sell some pavreit and switch to sunreit.
i'll only consider axreit if it goes below 3.30.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 26 2013, 06:14 PM

Sunreit management had "promised" to distribute at least the same DPU next year while closing down Putra Mall as the lately acquisition of Sunway Medical Center will contribute income.
So no DPU growth for next year, but good growth 2015.

The recent selling has narrow the premium spread of best assets vs moderate assets from 40-50% discount to 20-30%. Therefore, hot REITs (low yield) are down about 16% from peak, while other REITs (higher yield) only down 6-7%.

sentiment is really bad on reits.
cmmt last day before ex also nobody wants to buy. to deduct that dividend, it's actually trading at 1.60 now.

Strange that CIMB seems not interested to downgrade REITs. So far, CIMB maintains all TP on its coverage REITS. And why? I don't understand. In their paper, they didn't even care to mention bond yield at all. What were they thinking? Or later downgrade all REITs at one shot is it.




Attached File(s)
 igbreit_cimb_310713.pdf ( 530.44k ) Number of downloads: 54
 axreit_cimb_280713.pdf ( 460.83k ) Number of downloads: 32
 cmmt_cimb_200713.pdf ( 553.79k ) Number of downloads: 37