thanks for the links, very helpful.

I continue seeing REIT buyers....

ya, still looking for opportunity to re-balance my profile. So far I'd reduce from 57% to 50% now, only sell if got profit. plan to cut down another 15% if possible.
actually, i didn't sell much. just because my latest buying were non-reit, so the weight falls. my cash holding falls to 23% now.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 14 2013, 04:51 PM

i sold it at 3.30-3.70. Now about average of that range. If buyback now is like 白做。

don't think has anything to do with that.
more about yield is not high enough for buyers. Singapore industrial reits are trading at yield of around 6.5-7.5%, while retail mall reits at around 5.8-6%

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 15 2013, 04:18 PM

aiya! thanks for reminding me.

however, i also re-balancing my reit profile. currently cmmt, igbreit and sunreit are too heavy weight. since selling part of them still at profit, i may switch some to other reits such as the very best axreit and the very high yield hektar. i'm optimistic on hektar's new malls in sungai petani and kulim, as penang mainland is going to become hot in near future.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 15 2013, 04:38 PM

oh, you are from there. Cool! Do you think Penang mainland's booming may benefit Sg Petani and Kulim?
hektar now just begin refurbishment on one of the two malls, later will move on to the next mall. It's like subang parade last time, nobody care to go there. After refurbishment, although not crowded, but community people goes there and so far it's stable. And just read that gomen has plan to enhance tourism in Sg petani and kulim area. Looks like your property assets there may re-rate in near future.

i've been accumulating klcc all this while as a high yield stock to replace my reits.
no TP for selling unless our GDP below 3%, TP for buying lower the better.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 15 2013, 05:40 PM

yap. that's why it managed to give us highest yield at 7% as retail mall reit. buy assets cheap cheap, serve as "integrated air-cond shoplots for community" also can, no need look at it as shopping malls to compete with midvalley or pavilion. people go to subang parade will never willing to spend 30 mins to look for parking in midvalley or 1U. they are just different kind of people.

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 15 2013, 05:39 PM

thanks for the info.

good, i like that.
those who bought houses in Rawang and Kajang 10-20 years ago, now huat until cannot recognize jor. Early birds got abalone.

ya loh. why?

properties stocks were sold down. mahsing, sunway also same.
reits were sold down, of course.
klcc in both of these worlds, should be sold down loh.
but i like.

what else you suggest us to hold? can recommend?

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 16 2013, 05:21 PM

major dividend cash coming in these 2 months.
can go for some nice buffet jor.

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Read more at http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/internat...KbC6jcLcJgtr.99

I think you don't have to be overly worried like the market currently does. REIT is still good if the reit you bought has income growth potential in future. As we (sifu cherroy, sifu gark and a few other forumers) have some discussions recently, our conclusion is that interest rate (which highly affect bond yield) is unlikely to hike as much as last time. Our estimated rate when world economy turns stable and positive is around 4.5%. To valuation REIT at this rate, a normal discount would be 2-2.5%. Therefore, a REIT with 6.5-7% yield by the time interest rate hits 4.5%, is safe. Now, how many years interest rate may hit 4.5%? We think it's not gonna happen so soon. At least few more years.

Now, consider Pavreit for your case.
You bought at 1.56, that's 4.68% gross yield, 4.2% net yield (10% tax today, we assume gomen keeps this policy).
The difference is 2.3%, that's 54% growth.
If we assume 5 years later, rate hits 4.5%.
A rough calculation: 72/8 = 9. Here, means average of 8% income growth for 9 years, capital double. So we take 50% instead of double, and we get 4.5 years.
Meaning, if Pavreit able to growth its income 8% each year continuously for 5 years, its yield to reach 6.5% will be highly possible. If that happen, you have no loss at all, and you still getting dividend throughout this 5 years. Still much better than putting in FD or even bond funds, isn't it?

2nd scenario: income shrinking instead of increasing! Well, this is about how you think of Malaysia economy and Pavreit's future. If you doubt our country will grow or you doubt the asset quality of Pavilion in future, then you shouldn't buy it at the first place regardless of bond yield and interest rate.

My Pavreit's avg price at 1.40, difference is 1.82% in 5 years, required growth of 27%. So yearly growth requirement is 4%, which is highly achievable I think.

Please correct me if I was wrong.

ps: i just realize i was calculating based on interest rate, which is more related to FD instead of bond yield. At what spread could it be when economy is good? if another 2%, that would be 6.5% yield and REIT needs to reach 8.5%!

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 19 2013, 04:03 AM

I think we can't compare gold with REIT, unless you think property bubble is about to burst in Malaysia.

6.5% - 4.2% = 2.3%
2.3/4.2 = 54%

72 rules: if 1% pa, 72 years will double your capital.
utilize this rule to calculate for my case which is 8% growth pa.

LOL! .

i'm still waiting for their more detail announcement on corporate exercise, that scary 60% private placement thing etc.

1. it's not reit fall causing real estate price, it's the other way round. If real estate die (like i said, property bubble), reit die.
2. bond yield will not keep raising, rm will not keep falling, unless malaysia economy dying. If you think malaysia economy will be dying, it's not a good choice to buy any Malaysia stock since regardless of the stock's business (maybe a particular stock involved foreign businesses) you are still exposing on RM. You should buy stock with currency on a country that you are optimistic on its future economy.

3. so no, bolehland no special, no different. it's same same with the rest of the world.

just my view. please correct me if i was wrong.