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 Public Mutual v4, Public/PB series funds

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xuzen
post May 17 2013, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ May 12 2013, 12:36 PM)
Xuzen, any inputs regarding to these funds?

Public Far-east Select Fund
Public Far-east property and Resort fund
Public Indonesia Select fund

Public focus select fund
Public regular saving fund

All these funds under one same manager Tan Yan Heong.
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Of the above list, only those bolded pass the Xuzen test.

Xuzen


xuzen
post May 18 2013, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ May 18 2013, 12:25 PM)
hi Xuzen,

  What And How your criteria to test ? mind to share  notworthy.gif , want to try out some fund.
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I was a Pub-Mut UTC and as such I am privy to internal data. Hence using those data's I plot them into financial formula to evaluate them scientifically.

The two ratios I used are:

I)Risk Adjusted Performance Ratio (aka Modigliani-2 ratio)

and

II) Jessen Alpha Ratio

Xuzen
xuzen
post May 18 2013, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(SiChaoBear @ May 18 2013, 04:02 PM)
Hi people.. I need some help..I bought a fund from an agent..But her service is terribly bad..How to sell the fund I bought without her knowing it? Thanks a lot!
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Y u so sked? She ur g/f or mother izzit? Remember this, you are the boss, because you pay her commission, she works for you.

Xuzen


xuzen
post May 18 2013, 07:05 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ May 18 2013, 06:25 PM)
Xuzen.. what is PM view in Malaysia market? Will go up further?
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From PUb-Mut QTR1-2013 quarterly report:

KLCI is now trading at forward PER of 16.1% and 3.4% div yield. The 10 year average historical PER is 16.5% and12 mth Retail FD is at 3.15%. We are trading at very close to the 10 year historical average and the div yield is very close to the risk free rate.

My opinion is that unless your asset allocation is underweight on equities, hold first and wait for fresh lead.

For those kiasu type who is too overweight on fixed income, come out come out and play - play. Yes, you... You know who you are.

Xuzen

xuzen
post May 18 2013, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ May 18 2013, 07:25 PM)
stop stomping on those fellows that went 80% fixed income on 2011 will ya tongue.gif
They be hurt enough as is
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Xuzen
xuzen
post Jun 22 2013, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Jun 20 2013, 11:18 PM)
Hi, if i were to compare these 4 (PISEF, PIDF, PDSF, PFSF), which would be recommended?
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PISEF is the clear winner this time round.

PFSF followed by PIDF followed by PDSF at a distance.

I read somewhere could be The Edge, that money is flowing from dividend play to smaller or mid cap rotation as risk appetite increases.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jun 25 2013, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jun 25 2013, 12:58 PM)
I switched into 3 of them earlier this month and last week.
PISEF was positive till yesterday.
PFSF dipped the most, nearly 5% loss.
PIDF dropped nearly 2%.

P.S. It is not an indicative of their past performance, only to show the loses due to time of entry. Guess the 2-3% difference will be immaterial in the final outcome when they all climb (or drop) 10 to 20%.  tongue.gif
Select the quotes, before clicking "More Options" in the reply section.

======================
Is it coincidental that I transferred all my PFSF holding into PISEF early of June-2013? Or just plain superior portfolio management skillz? cool2.gif

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jun 27 2013, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(Alvin89 @ Jun 27 2013, 12:45 PM)
Hi all pm sifus..recently i took a fund using my epf. The fund name is public saving fund, may i know this fund izzit stable? As i dont want a high risk fund. As mentioned by the agent it is a balanced risk fund but just wanted to confirm again..worried buying a wrong fund.
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Bad fund, bad bad fund.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jun 28 2013, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Jun 27 2013, 08:14 PM)
Why bad?
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I based my statement on Pub-Mut Bhd own report i.e. Rtn & Volatility Measures for Public Mutual Funds for 3 years period ended 31/3/2013 which is a report only accessible to its own agents.

Agents who are worth their salt should regularly assess it (through UTC Connect) and make scientific calculation so that to benefit clients.

Sadly, many do not and we end up agents advising all sort of nonsense to the mass market such as asking client to buy shitty funds like PSF.

OK, lets get back to business:

PSF avr rtn for the past 3 years is 6.01% p.a. Its benchmark i.e. FBM KLCI is 8.16% p.a.

PSF 3 year average std-dev is 10.0% and FBM KLCI's 3 year average std-dev is 10.3%

PSF perform below its benchmark and it is just as risky as investing into KLCI. Why should we pay 5.5% service charge and 1.5% annual management fee to the stupid fund managers to perform even worse than its benchmark?

The above is my reason to say PSF is a bad, bad bad fund David.

Xuzen




xuzen
post Jul 19 2013, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(aoisky @ Jul 19 2013, 06:49 AM)
Don't shut ur door just yet. why not listen what offer PM can offer u and share with us here.
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Aoisky,

Many FSM participants are veteran unit trust users and many started from Pub-Mut, the grand daddy of unit trust. With a 5.5% SC is like asking Orlando Bloom to date and bonk Rossane Barr when his wife is already Miranda Kerr.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 21 2013, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jul 20 2013, 10:39 PM)
Below is an article of interest... was mentioned in another thread...
"The ultimate buy-and-hold strategy"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ultim...17?pagenumber=5

It is about how an ideal, the Ultimate, portfolio would looks like. It is 40% in bonds/money market, and the remainder 60% is equally divided into REITS, local and international equities.

The comments at the end of the article are also of interest, particularly the comments on 're-balancing' on an annual basis, and the starting period of any portfolio.

Below is its equivalent with selected Public Mutual funds.  biggrin.gif
Bonds/Money Market - 40%
REITS - 12%
Local Equities - 24%
Asia Pacific Equities - 24%

(Me, a copycat, unimaginative UT punter. So please don't take the selections as gospel! Take the idea and maybe fine-tune it to your taste. icon_rolleyes.gif )

Category/Benchmark and its selected Fund
Bonds MYR - Islamic Public Sukuk Fund 10%
Bonds MYR - Islamic PB Sukuk Fund 10%
Bonds MYR - Islamic Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund  10%
Money Market - Islamic Public Islamic Money Market Fund 10%
 
S&P Customised Index 60%; KLIBOR 40% PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund 6%
S&P Customised Index 100% Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund 6%

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Public Industry Fund 6%
FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 Index Public Select Focus Fund 6%
FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Shariah Index Public Islamic Opportunities Fund 6%
FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Shariah Index Public Ittikal Sequel Fund 6%

Equity Asia Pacific - Non Islamic Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund 6%
Equity Asia Pacific Ex-Japan - Islamic Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund 6%
FTSE/Asean 40 Index Public South-East Asia Select Fund 6%
Equity Global - MXWD 90%, KLIBOR 10% Public Global Select Fund 6%

-----------------------------------
Their gains in Year 2012: Benchmarks & Funds
Public Sukuk Fund 3.29% 3.94%
PB Sukuk Fund 3.29% 4.20%
Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund  3.29% 2.75%
Public Islamic Money Market Fund 3.07% 2.94%
PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund 17.92% 18.60%
Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund 28.69% 27.19%
Public Industry Fund 11.59% 11.84%
Public Select Focus Fund 5.85% 16.65%
Public Islamic Opportunities Fund 12.43% 16.72%
Public Ittikal Sequel Fund 12.43% 12.74%
Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund 12.79% 6.07%
Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund 12.46% 14.54%
Public South-East Asia Select Fund 11.83% 16.42%
Public Global Select Fund 7.73% 10.55%

Their respective gains weighted to the portfolio:

Public Sukuk Fund 0.33% 0.39%
PB Sukuk Fund 0.33% 0.42%
Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund  0.33% 0.28%
Public Islamic Money Market Fund 0.31% 0.29%
PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund 1.08% 1.12%
Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund 1.72% 1.63%
Public Industry Fund 0.70% 0.71%
Public Select Focus Fund 0.35% 1.00%
Public Islamic Opportunities Fund 0.75% 1.00%
Public Ittikal Sequel Fund 0.75% 0.76%
Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund 0.77% 0.36%
Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund 0.75% 0.87%
Public South-East Asia Select Fund 0.71% 0.99%
Public Global Select Fund 0.46% 0.63%
TOTAL 9.32% 10.46%

The equivalent ULTIMATE Buy-and-Hold Portfolio returns 10.46% for year 2012.

-----------------------------------------------------
Their respective weighted gains, benchmark & fund, in the first half of this year, Jan-June 2013.

Public Sukuk Fund 0.15% 0.22%
PB Sukuk Fund 0.15% 0.21%
Public Islamic Infrastructure Bond Fund  0.15% 0.35%
Public Islamic Money Market Fund 0.15% 0.14%
PB Asia Real Estate Income Fund 0.25% 0.45%
Public Far-East Property & Resorts Fund 0.34% 0.72%
Public Industry Fund 0.30% 0.36%
Public Select Focus Fund 0.86% 0.45%
Public Islamic Opportunities Fund 1.19% 1.15%
Public Ittikal Sequel Fund 0.40% 0.50%
Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund 0.10% 0.44%
Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund 0.01% -0.06%
Public South-East Asia Select Fund 0.24% 0.41%
Public Global Select Fund 0.49% 0.66%
TOTAL 4.76% 5.99%

5.99% for the first 6 months... not bad...

Cheers.  cool.gif
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Tee hee hee, calculating the return is arithematically straight-forward, try calculating the above portfolio risk aka standard deviation....

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 21 2013, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jul 21 2013, 05:31 PM)
Hi Xuzen,
Just noted your reply after I posted today...

nah, not going to take the trouble to assess the risk... the risk in my current portfolio will win hands down.  tongue.gif
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No issues buddy, was just pulling your leg. Without the help of super duper specific purpose software, don't bother to do the risk calculation. The time are better spend doing more exciting things... like "chasing skirts" etc.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 25 2013, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Jul 24 2013, 09:37 PM)
Here's a question.

With super-duper software that can produce all sorts of figures, are there any additional software that can co-relate the calculations to actual future performance?

In other words, looking back in time, how profitable were those calculations if you had actually followed them?
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Answer to question 1:

Correlation is impossible to future performance because the event has not happen yet, there is no correlation. Due unknown parameter I cannot compute.

Answer to question 2:

My three years annualised return of my tracked portfolio is around 12% p.a.. My sharpe ratio is maintained above 1.5. I keep my porfolio simple i.e., I buy into two asset class only (bonds and equity) since I do not have super-duper specific software, I calculate them manually. I cannot handle more than that due to lack of sophisticated tool.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 26 2013, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Jul 25 2013, 11:53 PM)
Actually, there's only 1 question.

My use of the word "future" was in the wrong context, my apologies, so let me try again. Ok, so you do calculation of Sharpe ratios and what have you, etc. Let's say you did those calculations 5 years ago. Looking at it today, did the "good" ratios turn out to be consistently profitable, and "bad" ratios turn out to be consistently not-profitable? To what extent did those ratios/calculations contribute to the profitability (or otherwise) of those investments?
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I only tracked my portfolio using these Modern Portfolio Theorem starting three years ago. Prior to that I was like most investors, shooting blindly.

Read back my post #1356.

I would not have invested if the ratio is bad. To give an example, there was a hype of people going for PCSF when there was a herd mentality that china was good. However, the ratio showed that PCSF was a sucker. I avoided it and was duly rewarded.

Let's take another example (PISEF), I transferred my fund into it last quarter because according to my calculation, it 3 years past performance is around 5% better than benchmark (i.e. KLSE70), risk adjusted.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 26 2013, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Jul 26 2013, 10:27 AM)
The history,
launch Public China Select Fund (PCSF) on the 5th of June 2007.
By 13th of August 2007 (2 months after launching), PCSF fund size grew to a whopping RM1billion in size!
However the direness of the situation were already showing between 14th January 2008 to 23rd January 2008 when the Shanghai Stock Exchange lost almost 1000 points. Gains that investors enjoyed since the launching of PCSF were wiped out by March 2008.
The oldest China equity fund, PCSF, despite gaining handsomely between launching date to Oct 2007 is the biggest loser among four funds..-31% since launch!

wow, xuzen, you tracked the price movement for just a few months only and you managed to get the decision right.

i am currently holding PDSF at 10% of my portfolio allocation....intend to do top up using EPF every 3 month, which would continue to increase my current 10% allocation. can you pls advise what your take on this PDSF? thks
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PIDF offer a slightly better risk adjusted performance, hold on to this first because PDSF is still a winner after all. Ask me again somewhere in mid Sep-2013 when I would have receive a new more updated set of data.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 10 2013, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(alex4843 @ Aug 9 2013, 10:58 PM)
Hi Xuzen,

May i know how to read the Sharpe-ratio??
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Sharpe Ratio = (ROI less Risk free rate)/Standard Deviation of the asset

It is a comparative ratio, not absolute ratio.

To put it in lay-person term.....

Let's say your unit trust fund X return is 13.15% p.a. and risk free rate (e.g. 12mth Maybank FD rate) = 3.15% and the standard deviation from the mean for the unit trust fund is 10%, then the Sharpe ratio will be:

(13.15 - 3.15)/10 = 1.00


Lets say another unit trust fund Y return is 13.15% p.a., same risk free rate with a sta-dev of 7.5%. Then the Sharpe ratio becomes:

(13.15 - 3.15)/7.5 = 1.33

This means that the risk adjusted return for Unit Trust Fund Y is superior to that of X. Means, cepat-cepat go buy Y. Go lar......

Xuzen.


xuzen
post Aug 10 2013, 04:23 PM

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There is a downside to the distribution part, whenever there is distribution, it is also time for our beloved taxman to come and collect their dues.

In plain english, distribution = taxable, capital gain = non taxable. That is why I love PRS, the only unit trust product so far that is tax exempted.

Another one that do not declare distribution are those investment linked fund. They never declare distribution and. Their unit price goes up to RM3++. If not for the cost of insurance attached to it, I would have gone into it.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 11 2013, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Nano22 @ Aug 11 2013, 02:01 AM)
Guys, do u think now is a good time to enter bond / fund ?
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Stay away from bond, stay far far away from it.

Go into equities now. For M'sia, go small cap. For world, get into US, China or North Asia market esp Nikkei link.

ASEAN = bleah!,

For bond, unless you are putting into bond first and do DCA i to equities, then it is ok.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 11 2013, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 11 2013, 11:57 AM)
I don't get why bond funds are at risk, especially in Public Mutual funds as they are conservative and their returns are low, and most of them slightly higher than fixed deposits. With the recent dip, some of them are lower than FD. It makes no difference to me if they are giving 4.4% or 2.2%.

The basic of bonds is that they are government or corporate IOUs.

They would be worthless if the government or corporation goes broke and tutup kedai and can't redeem the bonds on the due date. Before the due date, the bonds are traded with a premium or discount. If the concern government or corporation is not going broke, I don't see (and understand) how the bonds would be traded with such a steep discount that it is lower than its face value upon due date.

As I'm currently aiming for a buy-and-hold portfolio, the bond/money market segment is to re-balance the portfolio... can't exactly run away from bonds unless I want to restructure the bond/equity ratio and change the desired risk ratio.

And if bonds are going to crash due to all the gulung tikar, then cash is king, and should stay out of equities too.
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Thank you for bringing up the above point, JPB.

My initial reply was to Nano2 and his question was a simple and direct one i.e., is it time to enter bond?

Now to answer JPB:

Bond are at risk even bond fund because they are marke-to-market. I.e., even if you hold the paper and do nothing, the value of the piece of paper is priced according to the market. Hence, with the looming threat of interest rate hike, bond price has taken a beating, hence the drop in NAV these few days.

Also, there has been a increase in risk appetite in the US and Japan equities due to US's better economic data and japan's Abenomics whatever that is. Hence when risk appetite increase, money move to equities leaving a sell down in bond, anothe factor contributing to its NAV drop.

However, if you are a follower of modern portfolio theory and do asset allocation wisely, then you should stick with your confirmed asset allocation and adjust accordingly.

===========================

A little something I want to add:

Now I am talking from a fund manager KPI's perspective: Equities is your main driver of growth (the alpha part), whereas bond is your portfolio stabaliser (reduce sigma aka stan-dev). Fund manager do keep a little in money market to act as a buffer for taking advantage of unexpected opportunities. Money market with its risk free like return is useful for ramping up your beta (risk ratio) without compromising too much the alpha. When all this is done right, fund managers will be awarded those little monrning stars by MorningStars Inc.

In the end, the fund managers get fat pay-cheque from the fund house, you get an above benchmark risk adjusted performance. You happy, they happy. Everybody happy. Life is a bed of roses.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 11 2013, 12:33 PM
xuzen
post Aug 12 2013, 08:11 PM

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QUOTE(alex4843 @ Aug 12 2013, 07:32 PM)
since PISEF was closed for investment.. any suggestion for other fund?

i have owned PISEF, PFEPRF and PIDF  for cash,
as for EPF, I owned PIOGF and PIEF..
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PISEF, PFEPRF & PIDF are all good fund. Keep them.

For your EPF ones, you may keep PIOGF, dump PIEF by switching it to PIDF.

PIOGF and PISEF are small cap, hence you won't get much diversification. PIDF are into divvies, hence it can lower your volatility hence improving your portfolio sharpe ratio. Makes you a happy man/woman.

Xuzen

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