Aug 16 2012, 01:30 PM
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 16 2012, 01:09 PM)
The reason why I chose to ignore management issue because no one likes to talk about that here. The assumption is that everyone just accept it as good. However, since you started on it, I had highlighted before (but got no answer. LOL! I wonder why) I had asked why the MANAGEMENT had parked the bulk of the money into that account classified as 'placement of funds with related company'? That 'safe' deposit, as i joked about here, is worth some 460+ million. Now is what's the management doing it here correct? Yes, that said fund gives back Panamy some interest but the interest payment is not consistent and the rate is low. Do check yourself. Last I saw it was a little more than 3 percent. (Any feedback on this or am not going to get one?)
EPS. I would have love to talk about EPS growth. Now that you had diligently brought the table, how exactly would you define these numbers?
(FY year)-sen
2008-85.73
2009-82
2010-85
2011-136
2012-109
2013-30(1st Qtr)
Would I call that a growth stock based on that numbers? No. I would call it a company which had tremendous short growth in 2011. It just hit the jackpot in 2011 (Was the reason based on the sudden growth in housing projects in Middle East?) and since 2011, the numbers are showing decline.
Yes, as you said it correctly, the earnings grew suddenly. This has always been my opinion but as you know, discussions on this stocks in recent months were totally biased towards dividends.
And you remember the one reply I made on comparing DLady and Panamy? I asked why DLady shares kept growing and why Panamy did not? Was the answer earnings growth?
Ok company's products. I like Panasonic products. I am fanci. However, sad thing is, they last too long.
Just the other day, my friend wanted to buy fan. I told him don't worry and I ordered 3 units of Bayu fan for him. See unless there is another housing boom, I don't think we going to see much boom. That's my opinion. And yes, the flat TV boom. That helped Pana earnings too right? But that boom, that looked like it has peaked. This is my observation lah.
The management keeps the huge amount of cash without any investment is better than "simply invest and then makes loss". This sounds stupid but it's actually happening to many many small(and so called undervalued) companies. Fast expansion is very risky because it's like making new businesses instead of doing the existing "proven" business model. Take a look at Masterskill, they have huge cash last time and then invest hugely to build a university campus. Then? Not enough students, and the campus minimizing and halt and huge profit dropped. Reason is easy: expansion needs capital and managing the newly expanded business also need capital. Another example is Proton investing in Lotus, huge mistake. Lotus has been eating up huge amount of Proton's cash without much contribution on earnings, this makes Proton traded at below its assets value. And of course there are smart ones, such as Padini. Expansion but still making more and more profit. As for Panamy, its TV business has been hit big by Samsung, so it has to accept that and do something about it. Not just spending more money for investing can solve the problem, they need to find a way. And many times, rushing for one solution might kill you in one shot. EPS. I would have love to talk about EPS growth. Now that you had diligently brought the table, how exactly would you define these numbers?
(FY year)-sen
2008-85.73
2009-82
2010-85
2011-136
2012-109
2013-30(1st Qtr)
Would I call that a growth stock based on that numbers? No. I would call it a company which had tremendous short growth in 2011. It just hit the jackpot in 2011 (Was the reason based on the sudden growth in housing projects in Middle East?) and since 2011, the numbers are showing decline.
Yes, as you said it correctly, the earnings grew suddenly. This has always been my opinion but as you know, discussions on this stocks in recent months were totally biased towards dividends.
And you remember the one reply I made on comparing DLady and Panamy? I asked why DLady shares kept growing and why Panamy did not? Was the answer earnings growth?
Ok company's products. I like Panasonic products. I am fanci. However, sad thing is, they last too long.
Just the other day, my friend wanted to buy fan. I told him don't worry and I ordered 3 units of Bayu fan for him. See unless there is another housing boom, I don't think we going to see much boom. That's my opinion. And yes, the flat TV boom. That helped Pana earnings too right? But that boom, that looked like it has peaked. This is my observation lah.
Agreed with you that Panasonic products very hard to damage so sales may be less. But this is how they build the good brand name and this is how the business able to be sustainable in long term. There is always many ways to grow, such as entering new market. As for Panasonic Malaysia, its entering to Middle East was not so lucky since war happening now. But can't deny that is a huge market there, although facing China's tough low-pricing competition. But I'm seeing China's product can no longer be so cheap in near future because their salary and living expenses have been growing up fast. I'm seeing it on par with most Asian countries in 2 years time. And then, it's the Japan HQ's decision of moving some parts out of Japan that keeps me optimistic. If remember correctly, they are moving the HQ office to Singapore. And we are so near to Singapore. If they slowly shift more productions into Malaysia's factories, the growth potential can be huge.
Dividend. This is second to me actually. The first one is growth, which is inline with your strategy. So why dividend? Because we wish to buy at lower valuation, which means before the growth starts to get fruits. So we need to buy in advance, and then wait for the fruit to come. And at the waiting time, a dividend is good so that we have some income to ease our boring waiting time.
This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 16 2012, 01:38 PM
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