Malaysia: A Positive Month For All Sectors!KEY POINTS:
1. Building materials sector gained 5.0% in July, mainly supported by Lafarge and Tasek.
2. Other cement producers are expected to follow the market leader, Lafarge, to increase their cement prices.
3. With production cost remaining stable as a result of lower fuel and energy costs, profit margins of cement producers are likely to expand as a result of the price increase.
4. The recent price surge in cement stocks suggests that investors are currently pricing in the potential of higher profit.
5. Technology sector was tagging on rising investors’ sentiment, edging up marginally by 0.5% in July 2012.
6. But, we remain cautious on the outlook for technology sector as a potential slowdown in global economy will dampen the sales of electrical and electronic products.
7. GDP for 2Q 2012 is going to be announced on 15 August 2012. The slowdown in manufacturing activities and weaker exports demand are likely to mitigate the growth momentum and cause a slower growth in 2Q 2012.
8. Based on Bloomberg consensus estimates, GDP for 2Q 2012 is expected to grow slower at 3.8% as compared with same quarter last year.
9. In terms of valuations, the estimated PE ratios for FBM KLCI are at 15.2X, 13.7X and 12.6X for 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively (as at 3 August 2012), which are just marginally lower than its fair PE ratio of 16.0X.
10. In the near term, external headwinds from the European debt crisis as well as the uncertainties that may arise from the 13th General Election could create a short-term consolidation, especially given the strong recent run-up in the Malaysian market.
11. Our advice to investors: rebalance their portfolio and to consider switching some of their holdings into more attractive markets such as the Greater China region and South Korea.
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