
Bursa Malaysia Bhd
Target: RM7.50
Earnings forecasts and target price cut. We lower our FY11-13 net earnings forecasts by 16-22% following a reduction of 17-23% in our projected average daily trading values (from RM1.7-2.1bn to RM1.4-1.6bn). Our valuations are
rolled over to 2012 but our target P/E is cut from 33x (based on 10% premium over the 5-year average) to 25.5x (15% discount) in view of the more cautious market sentiment. As a result, the target price falls from RM11.60 to
RM7.50.

Downgrading Bursa to a Neutral
The more cautious market sentiment… Market sentiment has turned cautious amid
fears of a double-dip recession in the United States and a deepening of Europe’s
sovereign debt crisis. The KLCI has fallen 8.4% over the past two months. We also
lowered our end-2011 KLCI target to 1,580 from 1,700 previously. The lower KLCI
target and a possible drop in the trading value do not bode well for Bursa’s earnings.
…leads to a lower rating. In light of the weaker market sentiment, we downgrade our
rating on Bursa Malaysia from a Trading Buy to NEUTRAL. The three key reasons
behind the downgrade – namely (1) lower KLCI targets, (2) dwindling trading value and
(3) contraction in P/E multiples – are discussed in greater detail below.
Why the downgrade?
Reason No 1: Lower KLCI targets
A cut in KLCI targets. On 5 Sep 11, we lowered our year-end KLCI target to 1,580pts
from 1,700pts mainly due to a cut in FY11-12 EPS numbers and a reduction in the 3-
year moving average P/E from 14.5x to 14.1x, which is also the target P/E for the index.
We also introduced our end-2012 KLCI target of 1,660pts, which is lower than our
earlier end-2011 target of 1,700pts. The downgrade in the target puts a lower cap on
the upside potential for the KLCI and has negative implications on the trading value for
the market, and ultimately the earnings of Bursa Malaysia.