If one thinks China is bull.. just look at the performance of their market.
Something doesn't look right, isn't it?

Also, be very suspicious on this Agence France-Presse report, which
came out from no where suddenly around 2pm EST (NYSE) time when EVERYONE in China is SLEEPING!!

Just another rigged play by the big boys in control to push up this market for the big fireworks later.





This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 27 2011, 10:08 AM

Thanks for the warning signs

danmooncake you are cuter when you're a bull.

Tonight US announce 3rd quarter GDP at 8.30pm

Expectation is 2.5%growth

So high expectation

Last quarter baru 1.3%

This post has been edited by Myoswee: Oct 27 2011, 12:26 PM

thanks for the reminding... learnt something again

Short while u can

I'll stick to my plan to short S&P 500 at 1275 if it ever reach there

High risk counter trend move

thanks for the tinker, cleared my blurriness .

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Added on October 27, 2011, 2:25 pmWill still stick to certain stocks, betting on rally till Friday perhaps >40 cents increment - finger crossed.....gulp...shud be fine with new debt deal reached, 50% haircut?

This post has been edited by countdown: Oct 27 2011, 04:15 PM

SVM appointed forensic auditors in PWC...gave all clear, nothing abnormal....

Shorts went from 25 mil to 10 mil very quickly...............

Tracer short @ 1257 launched, moderate short @ 1268 launched , heavy short @ 1278 q............short it down!!!!!

Let's see what's happening at Europe.

50% write down for Greece debt - What a gift to to Greeks. Get rewarded for being reckless in spending.
The Greeks has a target of reducing their projected next year debt-to-GDP ratio of 170% to 120% by 2020. Do you think they can do this?

The Euro banks need 106 bln euros in capital and needs to submit a firm plan by Dec 25. The EFSF got 1T euros in vault. Who's next: perhaps Spain and Italy also want the same deal. They'll probably want to same handouts.
The first step to fund this, the Europeans are going to China - begging them to buy their debt.

Now, market will continue to go higher, all pump up,... just turn on the printing machines.

So, no choice but to stay long for now.

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Added on October 27, 2011, 8:03 pmBe careful.. they've let loose the bulls. Money managers are going to chase.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 27 2011, 08:03 PM

Yup long for now

yeah..Greece is lucky by spending every $1 and only pays back 50 cents each, mr. papandreou lucky you and citizens.

China indirectly will be pushed to buy more bonds, the European crisis is hurting their productivity. This round, I think they will buy the France and/or German's bond and/or buying up companies with hi-technologies in exchange.


wishfully the rally will last till tomorrow.....!

This post has been edited by countdown: Oct 27 2011, 09:55 PM

danmooncake, how long do you think this bull will last? At least 1-2 months?

The next question is which bank got hit by the 50% write off? BAC? UBS? my guess is a lot of banks involved

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Added on October 27, 2011, 10:31 pmWill China buy Europe bond? What if later also 50% write off? Spain & Italy will be lining up to ask for 50% write off too.......since the precident already set. Which country want to pay 100% when can ask for 50% discount

This post has been edited by danielc156: Oct 27 2011, 10:31 PM

agree with you that many banks will have to sacrifice. German, France and UK will have the biggest cut in absolute value term followed by other countries. Scroll till bottom of the following link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14239794

however and again all these banks are interlinked with each other, actual may varies vastly from the chart given  .

i also don't want lar.... to pay 100% then get back only 50% but now it's more like "social obligation" to put it in polite manner to prevent a global meltdown or to be exact is "they hold the global economy at hostage" - don't bailout me ar...I'll drag all of you together leh.....

Quite similar incident happened during the debt ceiling crisis and downgrade in US around August, the Asia i.e. China inclusive will still have to keep buying their Treasury due to:

1) No where to park their huge surpluses.

2) Disallowed US to default where they can't get their money back and possible backfire by hurting the American economy and demand for Chinese exports.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/09/markets/bo...uries/index.htm
http://news.yahoo.com/asia-keep-buying-us-...-112058669.html

even with the known possibilities that US will print more money i.e. QE3 which will indefinitely reduce the credits worth . The Greece is very fortunate, as you said before Italy and Spain might also want...

I really hope that M'sia will not go down into such situation where we'll be held hostage due to the government incompetency . Idris Jala said we might go bankrupt in 2019. "We will achieve developed nation by 2020 but before that we must bankrupt first a year before" - a common joke among news readers.

This post has been edited by countdown: Oct 27 2011, 11:51 PM

If I have to guess, I think it will probably go till end of Nov, when earnings seasons will almost end.
Then, we going to pull back a bit but it won't below 1200 unless something really bad happens again.
Another wave of buyers will come in for year run, price target: 1325-1335 area.
The algos are in buying mode and they're bidding/asking higher.

Now, I think the bears have lost control of this.. The line in the sand was 1250-1260.
Bears now will have to scalp, hit and run.

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Added on October 28, 2011, 1:31 amYou are correct. The Chinese hate the Americans printing money because of the fear that the value of the USD will be lowered down. A year plus ago, they've reduced their treasury holdings by going to Euro (before the crisis erupted). They were caught with pants down when the crisis hit, the value of the Euro they've bought went down substantially and the Dollar rises when fear crept in.

Like it or not, China and US economy have a symbiotic relationship. China is addicted to US dollars and refuses to remove peg of their currency against it. US is hooked to cheap Chinese made goods and as the rest of the world.

Uncle Ben office keeps printing, China keeps exporting.. collecting tons of green backs.. no where to park it.
If US goes default, China will lose big. US just walks away like Greece.

Europe now saying to China - if you're willing to hold USD, come get some Euros too.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Oct 28 2011, 01:32 AM

Hypothetically, not that I want, but let's just say the US Stock Market crash. What will happen to your $$$ in your US Broker account?

Well, there where two major crashes when I was in market. I've survived the dot com bust in 00/01 and housing bubble crash in 08/09.
My portfolio took quite a beating in 00/01 but in 08/09, I rode the bear and bulls later when it recovers.
Everything came back more than double. So, no fear.

DJ 12208.55 up +339.51 +2.86%



Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks surged, extending the biggest monthly rally in U.S. equities since 1987, and the euro strengthened as European leaders agreed to expand a bailout fund to stem the region’s debt crisis. Treasuries and bunds fell, while metals and oil led a rally in commodities.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.9 percent to 1,265.65 at 10:33 a.m. in New York, sending its October gain to 12 percent and erasing its 2011 loss. Benchmark gauges in France and Germany jumped more than 5 percent and German, Brazilian and Russian stocks were poised to enter bull markets. While Italian and Spanish bonds rallied, yields lingered near levels seen two weeks ago. The euro topped $1.40 for the first time since Sept. 8. Ten-year Treasury yields gained seven basis points to 2.28 percent. Copper rose more than 5 percent.

Equities, commodities and the euro rallied as French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the euro region’s bailout fund will be leveraged by four to five times, and investors have agreed to a voluntary writedown of 50 percent on Greek debt. Sarkozy is due to speak to Chinese leader Hu Jintao today and said he’d welcome support from the Asian nation in the bailout effort. U.S. data today showed the world’s largest economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in a year.


Asian Stocks, Euro Advance on Europe Debt Accord

“Europe has done enough for the time being,” Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the IShares unit of BlackRock Inc., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $3.3 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “It will remove near-term pressure,” he said. “In the U.S., the GDP report was decent and it was encouraging to see the consumer hold. The fear of a recession is fading.”

Bull Markets

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. climbed more than 5 percent to pace gains in all 81 financial companies in the S&P 500 today, sending the group up 3.6 percent and extending its advance from this year’s low to 22 percent. A gain of at least 20 percent from a low is the common definition of a bull market. Germany’s DAX Index is up 24 percent from this year’s low and Brazil’s Bovespa is up 21 percent and Russia’s Micex has surged 20 percent.

The S&P 500 is trading above its highest closing level since Aug. 1 and has rebounded 15 percent since Oct. 3, when it closed at the lowest level since September 2010. The advance has been fueled by better-than-estimated corporate earnings and economic data and growing confidence that European leaders would make progress in combating the sovereign debt crisis.

Earnings, Economy

More than half of the companies in the S&P 500 have released quarterly results since Oct. 11, and more than three- quarters have beaten the average analyst estimate, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Net income has grown 16 percent for the group on a 11 percent increase in sales.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. this week climbed to the highest level in six months, reaching 17 on Oct. 24. The index increases when data exceeds economists’ estimates. The gauge has rebounded from minus 117.20 on June 3, when it showed reports were trailing the median economist projection in Bloomberg surveys by the most since January 2009.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Household purchases, the biggest part of the economy, increased at a more-than-projected 2.4 percent pace.

European Banks

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 3 percent to a 12-week high as banks led gains. BNP Paribas SA and Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest lenders in France and Germany, advanced more than 12 percent. BASF SE rallied 6.6 percent as the world’s largest chemicals maker reported profit that beat analyst estimates. Ericsson AB rose 5 percent as Sony Corp. agreed to buy its 50 percent stake in their joint mobile-phone venture.

The German bund yield jumped as high as 2.20 percent, the most since Oct. 17, while the 10-year Spanish yield fell 17 basis points to 5.31 percent. That drove the difference in yield with German debt down by 30 basis points to 3.14 percent, the lowest since Oct. 14 on a closing basis.

Even after today’s gains, the bonds of some of Europe’s most-indebted countries are still trading near their historical lows. Greece’s two-year yield slid 293 basis points to 76.84 percent today, compared with an average of 27.07 percent in the past year. Italy’s 10-year yield, which averaged 4.92 percent in the past 12 months, fell seven basis points to 5.86 percent.

‘Red Flag’

“If we’re not seeing the sovereign debt markets turn around, that is a red flag,” Michael Darda, the Stamford, Connecticut-based chief economist and chief market strategist at MKM Partners LP, told Bloomberg Television. “Equity markets have gotten optimistic here. One of the things that bothers me is the euro-zone debt markets have not registered the same degree of optimism, and that’s really the core of the problem.”

The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments dropped 39 basis points to a mid-price of 294, the lowest since Aug. 30.

The EU agreement with investors for a voluntary 50 percent writedown on their Greek bond holdings means $3.7 billion of debt-insurance contracts won’t be triggered, according to the International Swaps & Derivatives Association’s rules. ISDA will decide if the credit-default swaps should pay out depending on whether it judges losses to be voluntary or compulsory. European leaders said in the agreement they “invite Greece, private investors and all parties concerned to develop a voluntary bond exchange” into new debt.