No body mentioned about the FUTURE.............its about the past.

Look at my calculations above.........over 41 years since gold was FIXED in 1970 at $35,
the compounded returns pa is $10.16%. More than decent i say....................

Another 3, 5, 10 years could be Armageddon...............

Locally, FD rate in the old day (1980's time) was around 7-9%.

US Fed fund rate during early 1980's was double digit aka >10%.

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Added on September 16, 2011, 6:30 pmIf from 1970's $35 to now $1800, is a 10.16% pa. return rate.
Then from 1980 $200/300 to now, is what rate then?

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 16 2011, 06:31 PM

Do a calculation.........those high FD rates are only for short time i believe.

Even then gold's return over the last 41 years USD terms is 10.16%

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Added on September 16, 2011, 6:32 pmWhy take 1980? Why not take the base price when it was fixed?

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Added on September 16, 2011, 6:33 pmIf 1980 you bought at $300, todate returns is still a DECENT 6% COMPOUNDED- not bad.......IMO

i just checked gold price at lowest in 1980 was $481

so returns based on $481 is 4.44%

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 16 2011, 06:35 PM

I am not saying FD beat gold, as FD is always the worst return rate one.
Just selective period of using, then outcome result can be totally different.

I can use gold over the last 30 years return from early 1980's to now, can be as low as 5-6% pa. compounded.
Which mean comparable to FD rate only.
So for a person invest in gold and FD at the same time during early 1980's, the result can be the same.

Pls show FD gave 6% compounded from 1980.............. wheres the data?

Why take 1970 then?
Why not take 1950, or 1930?

4.44%, I can assure FD beat it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not disagreeing on the statement posted, Both, or every data we posted is a correct, just how it is looked upon.

Pls show data on FD rates......

i take 1970 because gold price was FIXED at $35.........no price before that
so its reasonable to take it from there. 40 years is a long enougn period
for interest

FD rate was above 6-7% for quite a long time since 1980's, FD rate only plummeting after 1998 financial crisis.
FD is a compounded investment, your interest can be compounded one. So if 10 years time the FD rate is 6%, it is giving out 6% compounded rate for the last 10 years.

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Added on September 16, 2011, 6:43 pmI don't have data, if my memory serve me well, I put FD at rate around 6-7%, since late 1970's to early 1990's.

Then it is reasonable for me to use 1980's gold price as base, as I was starting investing during that time.
So no fair?

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 16 2011, 06:50 PM

No fair........best to get a baseline........1970 as you have mentioned yereslf........

when gold price was fixed at $35. Afterall we are looking at a SPECIFIC asset class

The BLR peaks during 1998 @ >12%, meaning the FD interest rate should be quite high too. You must be young to remember.

i maybe older than you.......

That peak was short and sweet.........i cleared my property investment loan that year.
Some years they go down as low as presently........2%
We are looking for the data on interest rates from 1970......do you have them?

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Added on September 16, 2011, 10:38 pmFound this table from 1980...the average from 1980 to 2009 was 6.1%....its even lower from 2010 to 2011
Showed that during interest rates peak in 1997-98, the FD rates did not follow upwards



This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 16 2011, 10:43 PM

Which is why you don't invest in gold. You only save in gold, using fulus to invest business to WORK for more money. Diversification is key? More like work work work to be wealthy.

Bro Singh_Kalan, our fellow forumer Prophetjul is old enough to have seen and understand at least 3 cycles and more (ie. i've only seen & understood 3 ). Methinks U made his day thinking him too young to remember 1998.
BTW, i personally remembered 12%+ FD (1yr tenure) was in the 80s leh.

Bro Prophetjul - U must be feeling good to be thought of as too young to remember 1998
This got me a good morning chuckle

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 17 2011, 08:08 AM

How old are you to only last 2 years without income? TWO years doesn't sound like a big deal to me and your projections might be wrong as well. Why?
1. What happens if hyperinflation kicks in and nobody believes in your cash anymore? Do you have commodities that other people wants in order to make a trade? If you don't, you can't even last a day.
2. Theft
3. Riots
4. etc

Don't assume 2 years if you do not have the necessary protection to protect your wealth. Say "two years if I am lucky". Still two years is quite short if you ask me.
Nothing to hide here, I can't even last 2 days as of now. D:

You're looking it at a growth point of view, investment pov. This is perfectly fine, if you're in the era of good times. Unfortunately Cherroy, I highly doubt we're anywhere near good times. It's unfortunate time coming ahead.

Gold hoarders view gold as a bargaining chip when your dollars turns to Zimbabwe money. Note I didn't say gold investors because investors usually have an exit strategy to sell off their gold for other investments that have better returns.

Also I realized some still are pretty ignorant about the housing bubble. IT IS GOING TO BUST. Malaysian bank economists have forecast it as early as 2012, I don't think it will last past 2013 because it is already out of control now. Not so certain about land banking though.

SeeD,

How long can you SURVIVE without income and WITHOUT SELLING any asset and / or investment??

Answer that question FIRST. Make sure that it is AT LEAST more than 2 years before you say it is not a big deal...

Dreamer

You being older than him has nothing to do with the previous statement "You may be too young to remember".

Just keep ego out of this.

Land banking can survive recession. As most people who buy land are using cash money (most of whom I know).

if there is a recession, what else can we invest in besides gold and silver? I have a feeling this coming recession is going to be a long one...

Bro Wong

Twas pretty high in 1997/98 as well to stave off the currency sharks.
Look at the chart i posted
i paid off my property loans that year!

i AM YOUNG!

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Added on September 17, 2011, 11:51 amOh boy.....someone whos not in the discussion making an adhominem statement

makes yer day..........

TROLL AWAY!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 17 2011, 12:02 PM

Assume one spends rm3k monthly, it mean one need rm72k to survive in 2 years. Damn. That worth my half year saving. But nevertheless, i would rather invest in low risks such as bond fund. Cash money depreciate in value due to inflation anyways.

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Added on September 17, 2011, 12:00 pmTry bond fund. Or reit also can.

This post has been edited by mois: Sep 17 2011, 12:00 PM