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 I am preparing for Global Recession, Be cash rich

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dreamer101
post Sep 7 2011, 02:29 AM

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QUOTE(Fabio1 @ Sep 6 2011, 10:56 PM)
Hi guys all Economist so called leaders World Bank, IMF, US Treasury and many more have indicated coming of World Recession, I personally foresee
this happening and I want take all precaution to avoid any financial crisis , whats your say.................
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Fabio1,

So, how long can you SURVIVE without any income??

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 7 2011, 03:49 AM

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Folks,

I have enough emergency fund to last 2 years. With dividend, I can last another 2 to 3 more years. This is all without affecting my lifestyle or selling anything.

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dreamer101
post Sep 7 2011, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 7 2011, 11:11 AM)
So what happens if you run out?
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wodenus,

How LONG can you SURVIVE without selling anything??

Answer that FIRST...

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dreamer101
post Sep 8 2011, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Sep 8 2011, 10:08 AM)
With dividend? when times are bad, are you sure you can still yield the same dividend return? Or unless you're talking about FD...maybe possible...
smile.gif
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kevyeoh,

So, I still can last at least 2 years without selling and without income.

What is YOUR NUMBER??

How long can you last without income and not selling anything??

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Sep 8 2011, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(edyek @ Sep 8 2011, 09:55 PM)
Issue more 1 Malaysia bond. Create more creative tax for us to pay.  biggrin.gif
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edyek,

Increase LEGAL retirement age to 75. Keep the EPF money 20 years longer.. Sell the IDEA as helping RAKYAT to save for retirement..

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dreamer101
post Sep 9 2011, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 9 2011, 07:58 AM)
AND discontine the LUMP sum EPF withdrawals.......use annuities........... this will prolong the EPF monies.....
whatever is left of it
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prophetjul,

The BEST part of this is IT does not affect civil servants since civil servants are not on EPF.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 17 2011, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(SeeD @ Sep 17 2011, 09:09 AM)
How old are you to only last 2 years without income? TWO years doesn't sound like a big deal to me and your projections might be wrong as well. Why?

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SeeD,

How long can you SURVIVE without income and WITHOUT SELLING any asset and / or investment??

Answer that question FIRST. Make sure that it is AT LEAST more than 2 years before you say it is not a big deal...

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dreamer101
post Sep 17 2011, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(SeeD @ Sep 17 2011, 01:20 PM)
Dreamer,

.
Well, RM72k is a huge sum of cash to be staying idle. If a person have that kind of money lying around in your bank account, it only shows that he's bad at investing his money (given that it is his life long savings).
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SeeD,

1) You still not answer the question. How LONG can you SURVIVE without income and selling anything?? Before you say it is or it is not a big deal, I would like to know how well can you SURVIVE.

<<Well, RM72k is a huge sum of cash to be staying idle. >>

2) It may be a HUGE SUM of money to YOU. But, it might just be a small percentage of somebody else total asset.

3) I have 2 years of emergency fund. They are EXCLUDED from my total investment portfolio.

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dreamer101
post Sep 17 2011, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Sep 17 2011, 07:23 PM)
Why is it excluded from the investment portfolio?

All you need to do is to allocate it to the asset classes that do not go through long economic cycles, like properties, etc
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howszat,

It is VERY SIMPLE.

1) You DO NOT INVEST your emergency fund.

2) Ditto, I do not include the house that I lived in as an asset and investment.

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dreamer101
post Sep 17 2011, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Sep 17 2011, 07:37 PM)
No, it's not simple - it's silly.

You don't need to keep all 2 years as emergency, ie liquid funds.

You could for example, keep 6 months in cash,  6 months in less liquid funds, 1 year in even less liquid funds that you can withdraw in a years time.
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howszat,

Need versus want.

1) Yes, I do not need to. But, I can afford to do this and it does not affect my road map to FIRE.

2) I BELIEVE the GLOBAL RECESSION is bad enough that 2 years emergency fund is MINIMUM that I am comfortable with.

3) Your concept of FUNDS only works if the GLOBAL RECESSION plus loss of income is 6 months or less. Longer than that, you have to SELL something in a RECESSION. Then, you will take a BIG HIT. Your 18 months worth of funds will not worth that much.

4) Please note that I could survive anywhere from 3 to 5 years dependent on how well my dividend payment is holding up WITHOUT SELLING.

It is a BAD IDEA to prepare for RECESSION by counting on selling FUNDS.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 17 2011, 07:58 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 17 2011, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Sep 17 2011, 08:12 PM)


Added on September 17, 2011, 8:17 pmNot interested in what YOU need to, or not.

I'm just pointing out it's a silly idea, which you don't dispute.


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howszat,

1) Silly or not is DEPENDENT on how LONG that you THINK this GLOBAL RECESSION will last. IMHO, any plan with LESS THAN 2 years emergency fund is NOT good enough.

2) Liquid versus non-liquid

All those funds can be liquidated in a RECESSION. But, at what cost?? Half or less of the original value?? With 2 years of emergency fund, I do not have to sell at the LOW. For people with 6 months of emergency fund, they have to sell after 6 months at the LOW if the recession continues...

3) I am PESSIMISTIC enough that this will last a long time. Please note that this recession is triggered by USA REAL ESTATE BUST. USA REAL ESTATE has a boom and bust cycle of 7 to 8 years historically.

4) You ASSUME that any loss of income will not last more than 6 months.. I wish you best of lucks...

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 18 2011, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 18 2011, 08:20 AM)
I remember that in the 1997 financial crisis, Singapore banks were offering RM-FD @ 20 - 30%. There were a large amount of Rm getting out of the country. It was one of the reason that caused Capital Control.

IMHO, fix-price Amanah Saham is a good vehicle to park your emergency funds. It is much better than SA/FD in that you can withdraw whatever amount for your daily requirement from banks and still gaining higher return.

When opportunity comes you can withdraw these funds to invest and u still earn the dividen at the endof Financial year (prorated).
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MGM,

You TRUST the government.. I wish you best of luck...

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 18 2011, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 18 2011, 08:32 AM)
If you dont trust PNB, do you trust EPF, TabungHaji, Govt Owned banks, GIC companies?
If you dont, then what about UT that invested in local blue chips which are owned by these bodies?

If these bodies fail then Malaysia would collapse and there is no place to run accept offshore, Singapore?
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MGM,

Bingo...

I only invest on one counter in KLSE and it is NOT a GLC. Most of my investment are all over the world.

<<If these bodies fail then Malaysia would collapse and there is no place to run accept offshore>>

Now, you UNDERSTAND what will happen next in Malaysia.

What makes you THINK that Malaysia is not on the threshold of collapse??

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 18 2011, 09:10 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 18 2011, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 18 2011, 10:03 AM)
What makes you THINK that Malaysia is on the threshold of collapse??

What makes you THINK that offshore countires are not on the threshold of collapse? Look what happen at japan, usa, european countires and other countries that depends on these places. The whole world is not safe if one is too paranoid.
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MGM,

I wish you best of luck.....

It is VERY SIMPLE.

Either

A) You had seen enough signs to know that it is coming

Or,

B) You do not believe and have not seen any signs....

Looks like in your case, it is (B)...

<< What makes you THINK that offshore countires are not on the threshold of collapse? >>

You live in Malaysia and you DO NOT KNOW that Malaysia is SPECIAL?? Aka, Malaysia is DIFFERENT from all those countries??

Dreamer









dreamer101
post Sep 19 2011, 07:10 PM

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Folks,

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index...d=2079&Itemid=2

Lessons from Argentina's economic collapse

<< The third pyramid showed the communist society. Where arrows from the low and middle class tried to reach the top but they bounced off the line. A small high society and one big low society, cushioned by a minimal middle class section of pyramid. Then we turned the page and saw the darned fourth pyramid. This one had arrows from the middle class dropping to the low, poor class.

“What is this?” Some of us asked.

The teacher looked at us. “This is us”

“It’s the collapsed country, a country that turns into 3rd world country like in pyramid five where there is almost no middle class to speak, one huge low, poor class , and a very small, very rich, top class.”

“What are those arrows that go from the middle to the bottom of the pyramid?” Someone asked.

You could hear a pin drop. “That is middle class turning into poor”.

I won’t lie, no one cried, though people rubbed their faces, held their heads and their breath.

No one cried, but we all knew at that very moment that all we thought, all we took for granted, simply was not going to happen.

“You see, the income from the middle class is not enough to function as middle class any more. Some from the top class fall to middle class, but the vast majority of the middle class turns into poor” Said the teacher.

I don’t know how many people in that room suddenly understood that he/she was poor.

The teacher continued “You see, we have a middle class that suddenly turns to poor, creating a society of basically poor people, there is no more middle class to cushion tensions any more. Middle class suddenly discovers that they are overqualified for the jobs they can find and have to settle for anything they can obtain, there for unemployment sky rockets, too much to offer, too little demand. You see they prepare, study for a job they are not going to get. You kids, you are studying Architecture because you simply wish to do so. Only 3 or 4 percent of you will actually find a job related to architecture.”

We all sat there, letting it all sink in. After a few months, it all proved to be true. Even the amount of students that dropped out of college increased to at least 50%. They either so no point in studying something that would not make much of a difference in their future salaries, had no money to keep themselves in college, or simply had to drop college to work and support their families. >>

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 19 2011, 07:14 PM
dreamer101
post Sep 19 2011, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(OneBuck @ Sep 19 2011, 10:32 PM)
I don’t know. I had tried to present based on history, what is real happening.Until tomorrow is coming, nobody can predict what is going to happen.

What I do today, is what I think the best for my family at least based on what people were actually doing in past.

Please wish me some luck.
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OneBuck,

You have not look FAR and WIDE across history of many countries and places.

Malaysia has 1.2 millions to 1.6 millions civil servant and GLC employees. This is out of 8 millions to 10 millions working age people. So far, we did not have any crissi that affected this group of people over the past 50+ years. Not even in 97/98. In worst case scenerio, the government run out of money and laid of half or more of those people, can YOU imagine what will happen next??

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dreamer101
post Sep 20 2011, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Sep 20 2011, 12:31 AM)
At most, don't you think the government will charge more or exorbitant tax here and there?
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arthurlwf,

A) WHY do you use the word "will"?? Isn't this happening right in front of your eyes now???

B) When the same EMPLOYER is feeding 1.2 to 1.6 millions people, every tax will hit the same group of people and they need more money to survive... Hence, they will DEMAND more salary. Things just spiraling down from here....

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Sep 20 2011, 01:19 AM
dreamer101
post Sep 21 2011, 06:42 AM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Sep 21 2011, 12:37 AM)
You mean the government had impose more than 60% on income tax?
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arthurlwf,

50+% of the KLSE is owned GLC and GLIC. The G stands for Government. Haven't you seen and hear more and more implicit tax increase??

The latest one is the prepaid card tax... Then, you will get GST too...

<<You mean the government had impose more than 60% on income tax?>>

That is TOO OBVIOUS and will drive out all the rich people that can leave any time... Plus, it will not raise enough money anyhow. Only 1+ million people pay income tax....

Dreamer



dreamer101
post Sep 21 2011, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(arthurlwf @ Sep 21 2011, 01:51 PM)
Yeah, heard the GST already. Its impacting the Malaysian.

Between the rich people and cronies, which is more important to the government?
One day the government will impose another bigger tax for people bringing money out from the country.
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arthurlwf,

You still do not get IT.

Why would they tax themselves?? They are the ONE that bring money out....

They will tax people that cannot do anything about this.

For example, sugar price. Rice price.. Cooking oil tax... It is ALL happening now...

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Sep 22 2011, 08:38 AM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Sep 22 2011, 08:03 AM)
I like u statement.
Poor/middle class people are always being the one who suffer(which form the majority of population).
Sad to say that rich people still haven't realized/acknowledged it.
The classic example is GST...
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firee818,

The MAJORITY supported this GOVERNMENT. So, they reap what they sowed.

What is the PROBLEM??

Dreamer

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