Share market is like you feasting.
Once python finished feasting, what will python do? Sleep
Bear, once finished munching, will sleep or rest..

So sleep or rest = side way. Not much movement at the bottom. (This is the time we open mouth to hamtam)

Wait for the side way after the big dip..

Careful not to bite the bear with too big a mouthful wor as another dip may occur within months 'ala 1997 & 1998
Being clawed to death by bear WHILE mouthful of bear fur isnt fun

Means attack the wrong bear already lo.
The bear half full, just stop for a while to digest before starting a new munching session..

Oh i get it. Let me give an example. Say KLCI stop moving at 1200points at +-<0.5%. That time we accumulate alot. But what happen if it drop to another level? sit tight ah? Or wanna cut lose again?

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Added on September 20, 2011, 11:39 amIt might be really dangerous if we attack the wrong bear. So better still buying in stages right?

This post has been edited by mois: Sep 20 2011, 11:39 AM

Mois - perhaps we can learn from "Friday the 13th" and other horror shows here. ie
1. When see dead bear, dont assume dead
2. Shoot the damn bear a few times first, preferably head shots, from afar and have the car engine running (ie. put in a % of investment $ and get ready to run/counter)
3. See any "bad" reaction - as in it jumps and tries to run at U?
No? good, go to 4.
Yes? run like hell since U are far enough and have a car already started to outrun it and repeat step 1.
4. Go nearer and chop the bloody bear's head off + burn the carcass, then celebrate (ie. put the some left over % of investment $ in)
5. Watch out for bear's family members coming for revenge! (ie. thus U arent celebrating your smartness until die also dunno what happened)
6. WHEN not IF, the bear's family member comes - repeat step 1. again

Lots of things we can learn from movies hor

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 20 2011, 11:47 AM

That is why I say split it to few stages. Use KLCI as benchmark.
Once reach, example.. 1200, first pump. Probably 33%. Or whatever ratio you would like to do.

Yea, buying in stages to spread the risk

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Added on September 20, 2011, 11:58 amWong, I had to agreed I damn like this expression of Bear game here. Hahaha.. Thumbs up for this illustration.

Yeap, when you see a bear, don't finish your ammunition in one bear.. You might be able to kill him for a period, but you won't know if the family, relatives and friends are behind, or surrounding you. If you finish all ammunition at 1 bear, what about the others? Haha. Sure get raped already.

There are a few strategies for different type of investor.

If you do not want to think so much, you can split it to 33% in 3 stages, or 4 stages at 25% each.

But if you are a person who anticipate more fall to come, but at the mean time, you do not want to miss out any chances from the rebound (Just in case), then you might want to allocate your strategy in pumping into the market in a triangle shape.

1st initial pump, 20%.
If goes lower to a certain point, 30%.
Continue to go lower, 50%.

In this manner, you will not miss out if there is a rebound after your 20% cash in.. But at the mean time, you are prepared for it to go lower for more capital flowing in..

Just my 2 cents sharing.


This post has been edited by Bonescythe: Sep 20 2011, 11:58 AM

There's so much to interpret on Mr Wong slay a bear analogy


by "triangle shape" you mean this?;

> 1st initial pump, 20%.
> If goes lower to a certain point, 30%.
> Continue to go lower, 50%.

How you determine a gap between point?

1400
1200
1000 ? Good?

This post has been edited by koinibler: Sep 20 2011, 07:11 PM

Own customization.

You can put 1300, 1000, 500..
Don't have a model de lar.. Depends on your own appetite and risk.

Just for a "feel":

1997 to end 1998 drop, from top / max point --> to bottom point, was about 80%
2008 to end 2008 drop, from top / max point --> to bottom point, was about 40%

Corrections are "usually" about 20% drops, the above are NOT corrections but major impact thinggies
Note - we are now about 11%+ drop from top / max point of KLCI

Thus, U can take a queue from those based on one's risk/reward appetite.

So Wong, what is your targeted point of entry?

Eh? For Trend/Value or my quarterly buta DCA+VCA (TwinVest)?
heheh TwinVest still chugging along every quarter - bit by bit ($xxK EPF held in PSBF + $xK Cash allocated per qtr)
No fear, no timing, just value averaging (75%) mostly
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for Trend/Value opportunity - when mid-long Trend Accumulation phase in my own calculation .
No idea when the KLCI will by then though - hehe, no idea until KLCI reaches it.

Then i jump in 50% of of allocated $xxk EPF held in PSBF.
Another 50% if Accumulation phase goes on for 3 months AND 1st entry makes net profit %

EXIT both if Trend reverses from Accumulation-->Recovery-->Bearish
OR Trend goes on from Accumulation --> Bullish --> Warning --> Distribution
Scary ride heheh

Gambate!

Oh,ok. Yea, u did inform u do vca.
That is why v call u wong sifu la. Haha.

For easier part, we follow wong's footstep. He enter, we enter. He cabut, we cabut. U lose money, your problem

He blindly VCA lar.. Haha, because he started long long ago..
If you are new, probably can wait for good moment, then pump in..
Spread it lo..

How to withdraw some of PUBLIC MUTUAL FUND ?

This place (ulu) don't have public mutual centre.

I got public mutual online though. Is it possible to withdraw via online ? How to do it ? Transfer to my Public bank...

You can do it using Public Mutual Online under Transaction Requests>Repurchase

Wah liao eh Mois, dont lar "put me on the table"
Like i shared earlier - i dont trust a methodology 100%, thus i'm splitting my investments entry/exit into 2 approaches/methodologies
a. Programmatic (no fear/greed)
+Entry based on TwinVest and amount allocated per program (eg. EPF PAGF, EPF PSSF)
+Exit based on per transaction's net profit of more than >=xx% within 1 yr
OR >=yy%pa if held more than 1 year
SWITCH back to PSBF cost +10%pa expected returns, let the abnormal net profits continue riding
thus win in terms of lowered risk/exposure since abnormal profits liao
+ win in terms of letting the abnormal profits continue going up if the market still bullish

b. Trend / Value
as per earlier posting's (Post #431) Entries & Exits

I'm trying to simplify as much as possible thus any of my family/relatives/friends and even my little girl can do it when she's older

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Added on September 21, 2011, 8:22 amYup yup - i've got a buddy that wants to start with his EPF now.
We've laid out the plans and accumulating ammo in his PSBF
to start 2 TwinVest programs when KLCI goes into Recovery phase
& Trend into PIX, when in Accumulation phase.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 21 2011, 08:25 AM

hi all, I'm not sure if now is the right time to buy more units for the fund that I have. From what I understand so far is that once the NAV drops, it's a good deed to buy more units.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Of course it is good to buy when it drops because it is cheap. But question is, how cheap is cheap?

cheaper than the first time when i bought? that should consider a good deal right?