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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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sampool
post May 6 2011, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ May 6 2011, 10:39 AM)
lol...biasa la kena cocok..

nowadays banks still offer BLR-2.3 / -2.4

effective mortgage rate still attractive lo..

6.55-2.3=4.25% p.a

hmmm....let's see how the property market will re-act to this.
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no matter what the package your taken... the bank still the winner...

as long as u borrow 30 yrs loan from bank....ur need to pay back bank another 1 house upon service the loan... BLR minus bla..bla just the promotion to attract ppl borrow $$. tongue.gif

their expert mathematician already calculated for ur already (included their profit, inflation, losses..)... we are not clever then them as long as u need to borrow $$.. notworthy.gif only thing which bank slightly better offer only..

This post has been edited by sampool: May 6 2011, 09:49 AM
sampool
post May 9 2011, 11:10 AM

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deleted...

This post has been edited by sampool: May 9 2011, 11:28 AM
sampool
post May 9 2011, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 9 2011, 05:01 PM)
having child is very expensive nowadays.. food, education, insurance etc etc
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1 child till reach 25 yrs = 1 condo (cost RM200k - RM300k) whistling.gif
sampool
post May 9 2011, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 9 2011, 05:02 PM)
You don't want to wait for the Gov "My First Home" offer? Below 220k quite a steal if the it is built by reputable developers...
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dun expect it will be landed house... it could be like flat with apartment status... will be crowded.... anything can happen...
sampool
post May 14 2011, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(BEANCOUNTER @ May 14 2011, 09:34 AM)

Added on May 14, 2011, 8:40 am

dun think it's so much to do with price increase......

turn back clock 30yrs, link houses then 7k or 10k only.......should we be complaining about cann't afford houses even 5 years ago @ 200k?

these days, youngsters got spoiled lah...everything also want new, from cars to toys to adult toys....most riding on FAMA banks, well fed, fully supported education. All these no thanks to good malaysia economic progress in the last 40yrs.....

when they came out on their own without mammy and daddy supports, and can't affort to buy their dream homes to call own....then they cried loh......asking for help............. cry.gif
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Yes... i agree.. as i already told earlier... the young in below 28 yrs old (not all lah, but majority).. is using their grandFAMA or FAMA resources, as they have more resources to burn (Sell their house/shop to fund for their children 1st hourse in Klang valley for example). but wat happen after this resources full/half burnt... FAMA support their next generation also because hope them to "support/take-care back" (This actually is a MUST even without any support from them) when they are getting older in years to come... Young generation, pls dun think this is FREE lunch! No FREE LUNCH in this world... in any matter i can said. Because this is not ur hard earn $$ biggrin.gif

Wat happen if the resources fully burnt... their follow next generation no more resources to burn.... Social problem will follow...


** Why i said no more resources to burn.. because things (property, food, petrol, sugar, medication, transportation, insurance ...) will be getting more & more expensive. $$ already burn into inflation...



This post has been edited by sampool: May 14 2011, 10:20 AM
sampool
post May 17 2011, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(bluuberry @ May 17 2011, 01:44 PM)
yaya
its scary man..
BLR if my internal info din go wrong, it will be increase again within 2-3 months time
if BLR continue shoot to the sky, speculator of property will die 1st
a lot of economist also forcasted asia is comming to hav a crisis
a bit scared of it
study 3yrs back of the property bubble in malaysia, until now bubble havnt come yet, but the price is already sky high,
now stil havnt got  a lot of property VP, i think the most scary time would be 2013-2014,
if that time the investor holding power not strong then it will affected.
the other way to see, if our property burst, many things would be affected, government might not wish it happend
actually now is the best timming for the investor to let go their property.

price of fuel i think for ron95 will be increased after the elections
ya the clearer picture would be 12 months later
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everytime there is economic crisis after election...

(or)

everytime after election there will be economic crisis... whistling.gif
sampool
post May 18 2011, 08:26 PM

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QUOTE(room2009 @ May 18 2011, 08:54 PM)
i don't think the price of props will drop even recession period, those ppl who are waiting for the bubble burst.. will be wait forever. even during 98, our economic is bad, many ppl lost their job, but the props didn't drop much, u can only get a real cheap price in auction house, but not from the prop market.
if say 2-3 years later the recession really happen in malaysia, by that time ur prop already increase, thanks to speculators biggrin.gif, if drop also not much diff than the price now..  what to lose?
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if ur house dun inflate together with bank interest... actually u already lose... biggrin.gif
sampool
post May 22 2011, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ May 22 2011, 07:33 PM)
Now this part is what I don't understand. Economy is bad, prices goes sky-rocketing. Now economy is good, share market all time high, yet prices are still sky-rocketing. So, what gives?
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food price high partially contributed from the service tax.. 10% + 6%. Because u eat frequently at shopping center or good looking shop. Calculate urself lah.. biggrin.gif
sampool
post May 23 2011, 10:18 AM

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over supply of the prop is main reason for the low rental... my population still cannot catch up with the over supply issue in the recent launching... crashing is matter of time... value ur prop with current market value and not future value, if not u will bankrupt b4 u able to get rich.. smile.gif
sampool
post May 23 2011, 12:10 PM

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higheest as possible...

This post has been edited by sampool: May 23 2011, 12:18 PM
sampool
post May 23 2011, 02:03 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 23 2011, 02:30 PM)
If BNM increase OPR too drastic, the downside effect won't be limited to property only. It might affect the overall economy. And since the latest economic data is below expectations, I wonder the government still wants to boost economic activity to achieve the targeted 6% growth or tackle rising inflation. Tough choices...
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this decision issue is global... included USA too need to decide, but both choice will be come to same result at the end... Q of sooner or later only.
sampool
post May 23 2011, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 23 2011, 04:52 PM)
But USA situation is different from us. In fact, USA is exporting the inflation, we are importing it. There is another option to combat this importation of inflation, that is by increasing the value of our currency.

So this has become a catch22 situation for government, increase interest rate, property loan default risk goes up, stock market crash, property market might crash and eventually whole economy also crash. Cheap sale everywhere, good for those with lots of cash in hand.

Increase RM value, people feels happy at first, then manufacturers die, people lose jobs, government tax income down, economy also comes down. Unless we move up the value chain faster to cater for higher RM value.  rclxub.gif
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be well prepared b4 rain...

This post has been edited by sampool: May 23 2011, 04:16 PM
sampool
post May 23 2011, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 23 2011, 05:53 PM)
I am expecting this "moderation in house prices". Don't know how to describe it then until read up this article in theedge.

S&P: Asia-Pacific banks well placed to withstand any moderation in house prices

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?o...186969&Itemid=2

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the statement is contradict.. U trusted this guy said?

"We expect that the region's stable economic outlook and rising household income--factors that have influenced average house prices to date--can sustain the market," S&P credit analyst Naoko Nemoto said.

"We believe that in the event of a downturn, most rated banks around the region have the capacity to absorb potential credit losses with limited impact on overall credit quality."

My is lack of expect/guru (many are goreng kaki too) which is far-signted and foresee the economic down turn.. in USA many economic expect/guru which already foresee wat is happen few years b4 any down-turn, they earn the $$ from economic cycle (it is different from goreng), ppl like rich dad type is needed in malaysia... but so far none.

This post has been edited by sampool: May 23 2011, 05:21 PM
sampool
post May 25 2011, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ May 25 2011, 01:53 PM)
at this time (prior to GE), the G is talking about cutting subsidy and hinting higher inflation would take place, it shows how desperate G is unable to bear the cost of subsidy.

obviously there would be even less sweets after GE, i wonder what would happen then
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next yrs even worse... ppl may need to sell their extra houses for cash if their rental not attractive/unable to cover 50% of their installment... then prop market will no be stable + over supply issue suddenly come into the picture...
sampool
post May 25 2011, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ May 25 2011, 05:33 PM)
so price is going to drop?  hmm.gif
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we cannot said the prop price is drop/crash.. but is rather the economic slow down and bring down the prop price indirectly.. tongue.gif
sampool
post May 30 2011, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ May 30 2011, 03:12 PM)
Typcially PONZI mentality for the SHEEPLE!

AUS and CAN props on the verge along with CHINA so you make the call!  HK-SING-MALAY listings have grown quickly.  Transactions few.  The signals are there.

Sell in May and go away!  US re-entry to recession to show signs in July and full swing in Dec.
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So, we will expected GE in July b4 any things... sweat.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
sampool
post Jun 1 2011, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Jun 1 2011, 11:54 AM)
This tells you a double dip.

Reason is simple, many people just gave up paying back the loan when the loan amount is double the value of the house. Buying a new house just cost half the price. The slowly increase in new housing data over the past few quaters tells you that. But forclosure market is getting worse because most of the US houses are made with wood and need regular maintenance and the house is in better shape when tenanted. House condition deteriorated fast when vacant and hence the value of the house took a nose dive.

When property bubble burst, it is going to take a very very long time to recover. Japan 20 years never recover, HK thanks to recent hike just reach 97 price, US double dip, yet to see the light in the tunnel. Even when the price did come back like in HK, the price is still not factor in inflation over the 14 years period.

For those without holding power, the gambling should stop now.
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those ppl still believe prop is their asset.. that is y they BBB... some they reliase, but is too late as snp already signed... BBB is just build asset for developers... laugh.gif Prop over supply situation is the worse case, but many still make dun 1 to know or just ignore... laugh.gif
sampool
post Jun 1 2011, 02:58 PM

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actually the bubble in yrs 2008 is started in 2006.. just the country close here and there.. until banking sector banktrupt on ppl realize...

bubble the next.. is forming maybe more earlier...
sampool
post Jun 1 2011, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 1 2011, 05:14 PM)
yes, but there r many pessimistic peak gloomers around  biggrin.gif
they need to check with their datuk & nenek  tongue.gif
if they could turn back time, would they have bought prop with their savings or take some loan to finance it  hmm.gif
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if u ask them... 100% will said REGRET to BUY... But, during that time they hv many children to take care all need makan2.. But, now some gorenger is unmarried or no child to take care.. dare to fail.. laugh.gif
sampool
post Jun 1 2011, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Jun 1 2011, 05:52 PM)
When Mark speaks, I listen.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.c...ius-derivatives

But over in My, stupid local politics will be the main factor how it going to swing. Oh, they play v your money and my money mah. biggrin.gif

Go some wind things might not look so good after GE 2012-2013. 2014 beyond? Nobody knows even Oxford Business school understand reduce they previous teaching from 10yr planning to 5 yr planning and now down 3 yrs planning. Thing changes too quickly.
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he is number 3 ppl i heard there will be crisis in year ahead loh... biggrin.gif

rclxm9.gif Yeah... i reach 1,000... forget to celebrate..... Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 1 2011, 05:16 PM

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