somebody quoted rm5k psf in 5 years time mah.
does it makes a difference if someone gives you the figure. would you buy just for the sake of someone naming a figure here?

hhhmmm... would ringgit rise leads to depreaciation of property prices?

the poser did mentioned he's conservative and have portfolios comprising properties, stocks, funds, etc.
perhaps he can share out his experience on which is his best return so far?

pai seh, my england no good ah.
what i meant was poser as in the one who post the statement.
pai seh pai seh.
needs to go back to do my primary school english...

now you make me think twice about letting my unit go.

please refer subang bestari thread or landed below 600k thread. i remember posting quite an elaborate pros and cons on it.

you sure are a happy camper for bubbles, aren't you?
if there is a bubble, would you rate the bubble as overall in China or would you rate it as a localised bubble?
back home here, are you expecting a bubble throughout the nation or just klang valley?
pardon me, am not being sarcastic but just trying to pick your brain a little to see where you are coming from.

PS: if they do a mini documentary to SS2 mall, am sure it can scare away a whle lot of FDI.

you do strike me as a very emotional being.
ok, let's try to dissect a bit ok.
64 million empty condos. how many property overhang was under our latest report. i think we can get from jpph or something like that, right? please help, k? i thought it was 2 million overhang or something like that?
ok, let's compare some figures.
china 64 mil / 1 bil population vs malaysia 2mil / 26 mil population. is this correct method to compare, kah?

i did not go through the documentary (sorry) but may i know a few more points to the documentary:
1. when was it film?
2. when the filming of the mall took place (as in how long was it VP then the film crew shoot in it)? reason for me asking because can see a lot of construction materials lying around from my preliminary view of the documentary.

on a separate note, i remember when i first visited kota damansara dataran sunway. i can virtually parked in the middle of the road. shops was scarce. now it's jammed up.
then came the strand. it still is relatively empty so to speak. and the take up rate is quite slow (in terms of shops operating).
am not denying that a property bubble would not happen but would rather know why and how it happen.
thanks for sharing, man.

just for discussions sake, let's say there's a bubble in kuantan, pahang with mega developers taunting to sell resort homes with condo and apartments facing sea view with fantastic concept and blah blah blah. and let's assume there are building like a few thousand units (hotel/studio small sq ft therefore more units lah). and ended up cannot sell or become ghost town in future. or similiar scenario in say lumut, perak or sepang goldcoast, selangor.
so i can i assume or declared that there's a property bubble be it general or localised in malaysia? would these localised bubbles really affect say prices in penang or kl?
don't get me wrong, am not disputing if the documentary was true or not, but just trying to see things differently before i make my judgement on it.
things that i'd learn from media, it always tells you a story. and that's the problem. it only tells you ONE story. and there's always two sides to a story.
what amazes me was whoever financed and see through the completion of those 64million units. at least not like here, developer would have abandon the projects long long time ago.

PS: just read the transcript. a few pointers:
1. those cities are extremely far from main city. there were talking about a couple of hours drive from beijing. and usually when someone casually mention so, it usually means at normal speed. this would mean the ghost cities they are referring to are like ipoh to kl or even further.
2. the 64 million figures might be an exxagarated figures with no proper backing. just like the guy who quoted malaysia property to be rm5k psf within 5 years time.
3. a 6 years mall with no tenants and still in quite good upkeep. that's a big feat alright. wonder who's paying the maintenance costs?

This post has been edited by kochin: Apr 20 2011, 07:15 PM

Q1 have seen some fantastic sales take-up from projects launched.
now is officially Q2 and seems like mood swing in the forum have switch to negative. let's wait these 3 months to see the take up rate of :
1. m-city
2. elements
3. z-residence
4. westgate melati
5. nadayu 28
6. KM1 (this is luanch in april or march ah?)

my philosophy in prop investment is simple. i always assume rental gain are people helping me with the installment. so therotically if property prices drop, it actually doesn't affect me. the only thing that does affect me is the rentability of the area.
and speaking about rent, during bad times, of course need to correct to market condition. and even if rental is less than installment, no big deal, at the most then i would top up the difference. let's say the unit installment is rm2k/mth. even if i lease it at rm1.2k/mth, i need to top up rm800/mth. not a big deal bcos the tenant already HELP to pay rm1.2k/mth. and eventually over a long period of time, the unit is mine. but of course, we obviously do not wish this to happen. of course the biggest concern is not getting any installment at all from rental income but this is unlikely as if you have selected a unit in a fairly decent location and when you start to leasing it cheaper than market value, am sure you will definitely manage to secure tenant. remember, beggars can't be choosers when bad time comes.
and back to property up versus down topic. for those who bought approximately 3 years ago or earlier, they are virtually safe by the amount of appreciation that has occurred. so in terms of both rental and market value, these property are virtually save from any depreciation even if there's a drop of say 30% from current pricing. so it should not affect them at all again. and again, if someone who can come up with a statistic on property already fully paid off, am sure the numbers would be staggering. so we are talking about millions of property which are debt free to a whole lot of people.
when you strike off all those in the above list, how many property do you think is vulnerable to a property correction?
even MK for example, with the average gain of more than 10% per annum previously, do you think the owner who have previously enjoyed such handsome gains are worrying about the current dip there or the decrease in rental? the only person trap will be those entering at a much higher price recently. and when the property does depreciate, no prizes for guessing who will be buying off from them at discounted prices, it's gonna be the previous owners.
anyway, that's just my views.
and lastly, i always reserve 1 full year of full installment in my account for all my properties. and i usually use interest rates @ 8% as calculation for monthly installment. so give or take, i still have a cushion of blr to move until 10.5% before i gets 'stuck'..... theorectically.
be safe man!

guys, i just visited star avenue launching by TMS. offhand, i think 80% taken up. retail mall units not for sale yet. indicatively rm1k psf for the retail, and rm450-500 psf for the commercial 3 storey.
looks like bbb is still on for the time being.

didn't really count and the sales person refuse to let me take photo of the model.
there's 8 blocks altogether + a mall similiar to giza.
the 8 blocks are arranged as 4 blocks x 2. 2 blocks facing the main road, 4 blocks facing each other with a central lane dividing them and the last 2 blocks facing subang bestari.
from the looks of things 6 blocks have been fully sold. the last 2 blocks facing subang bestari, the block nearer to the mall is also fully sold except one more unit. only the last block have around maybe 10 units or so.
the SA told me they will release the retail units later.
PS: she also told me they sold 10 units yerterday. meaning the rest were sold prior to this. average price for the 3 storey blocks were 2.5mil.
what was surprising is that the SA quoted 4 years for total completion which dismayed me since it's low rise. i would have thought they can deliver within 2 years. maybe they are planning to launch retail only next year???

so you are keen on a devastating economy disaster to strike our country. hhmmmm.... have you consider the following:
1. you are not scared of losing your job. what about the thousands of people living nearby you? you will be surprise of what we humans are capable of. did you watch the movie "Saw"? i dunno about you guys but I am pretty sure I would go to a very very very long extent to protect my family and myself. And I do mean doing absolutely anything to survive when the time calls for it. So, among the tamer versions would be say your neighbour loses his/her job with plenty of young ones to feed. Maybe they got desperate and burglarised your place. This is just the mild version.
2. riots due to economy crisis. public safety affected. 'darurat' declared. all shops are closed. got money also cannot buy anything then.

of course the above are taking things too far fetch. but ultimately when economy collapses, when the rich lose, the poor loses more. it's not a fair world and you better believe it!

some shitty idea:
1. subsidy reduced or removed. prices shoots through the roof.
2. property prices definitely beyond reach of 'normal' consumers. forced to rent from hereon. some even sell existing home to cater to new living cost.
3. all properties in malaysia held by 'affluent' people and started monopolising rental rates. rental rates starts shooting through the roof.
what happens next is anybody's guess.
terrifying but might be a reality in the making.

you guys are taking my comments too seriously. i oledi upfront say 'some shitty ideas' lah. i stated it here out of curiousity and fun's sake for discussion and debates.
BUT in all honesty, our rentals does not reflect the property prices. yields for most properties are very low (if compared to market value). so general conclusion is either property prices is too high or rentals are too low. you guys ought to analyse which of these would comes first?
i know a lot of you guys here are saying the former, but let's just not rule out the later too. when shit happens, it's really shitty.

if that's true, make sure it's hot!
so we can really fry and burn!

time to separate the man from the boys!

i think everybody is in real deep shit already if car debts are > property debts!!!
since most people are saying the ridiculous pricing is due to greedy speculators, let them burnt right? me? am looking forward to buy myself a home. a home, not a property. still hunting since beyond my reach.
GE? bring it on!

oh yeah, have never buy a car before too. cannot afford to lah. the installment for a car is more than installment for a property (per month basis).
but my current ride is really jialat liao lah. >15 years old and starting to give me problem after problem. push comes to shove, i would need to get myself a potong liao since it's the most 'value for money' ride and shows my patriotism!

isn't it just sad that for every dollar that anyone on earth is paying, they are getting probably 70 cents worth of it.
but for every malaysian that's forking out a dollar, they are probably getting 20 cents out of it.
so where did the 50 cents go?

so if i do buy a potong, then every dollar i spend, is worth 70 cents???!!! since 50 cents also going to them in the first place!!