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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kochin
post Mar 22 2011, 11:48 AM

I just hope I do!
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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 22 2011, 11:44 AM)
He made your day by making a mock forecast? Why? are you worried that the bubble might indeed burst?  If you don't like to hear us complaining, why do you come in here?
*
you mean you come in here because you like to listen to people complaining? rclxub.gif
kochin
post Mar 22 2011, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Mar 22 2011, 01:37 PM)
I can accept if you said last 2 years the bubble didn't burst.

But what you didn't realise is your forecast is as grim, as if there was an economy crisis.

Let's say you are right and everybody can only afford to rent, this will mean that the cost of living has gone up. The next generation can't afford to buy new props, unless they are extremely resourceful, or come from rich families, because props have become "scarce".

Is this really what you guys want? so in other words you want property price to come down or crash?


Added on March 22, 2011, 1:40 pm
Come in here checking out whether props will drop. Because that's the only hope for us.  That's what this thread is about isn't it? Are you sure this is what this thread is for?

You're so sure that props won't drop, and if you feel irritated by our comments, why do you come here? Simply to mock the poor?
*
firstly i ain't sure of anything. this is a thread for healthy discussion. each and everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
secondly, who's mocking who? PERIOD!

This post has been edited by kochin: Mar 22 2011, 02:03 PM
kochin
post Mar 22 2011, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 22 2011, 02:20 PM)
relax bro... it won't be that grim either way.

that scenario is not going to happen so soon since our economy has little steam. income levels will continue to stagnate for many years to come.
even intellectual prop rights has stagnated. tongue.gif
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ays-think-tank/

it is likely that new props will be priced beyond reach of many but there will be plenty on the subsale market, reasonable priced, many brand new, unoccupied before. just be patient - maybe not 1 yr time, but 2-3 from now. if not too choosy, you should find one rather easily then, imo.
*
law of physics: what goes up MUST come down.
it's not a question of will it but rather when.
to me it doesn't matter when but my biggest question is:
when it does comes down, would it comes down to or below my current purchase price?
if yes, those who waited MIGHT have a reason to cheer! but who knows what would be the reason for such a phenomena.
if no, law of physics wins again. time passed and cannot be rewind!

my question to all those WISHING prices to come down.
purely hypothetical:
2005, property cost rm250k
2006, property cost rm280k
2007, property cost rm300k
2008, propety price drop to rm280k.
let's say you have the above knowledge upfront in 2005, when would you like to buy your property?
kochin
post Mar 23 2011, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 23 2011, 09:20 AM)
The story con't
13/7/2011
A : Eh..I smell something wrong wit the mkt aleli, everything slowlah...
B : Nolah, look at all those new launch, still BBB mode, why still dreaming?
C : I say aleli property mkt kenot chase one, let's see wat is goin to happen
13/7/2012
A : Walau, everywhere SSS, tis time may be I hv chance to buy my dream hse at discounted price
B : The mkt is really soft, some hv dropped > 20%, can buy aleli
C : Dun be so 'Kan Cheong', mkt can drop some more, the stock mkt has burst...you will regret if you buy now, it will drop some more
13/7/2013
A : Yahoooo, the mkt really crash, the hse tat I wan to buy has dropped 30%, I can afford to buy now..
B : Never imagine tis will happen, really attractive price, must buy now, untung so much ya
C : Wait..wait..wait, now is buyers mkt, why so hurry, dun you see everywhere on Mega sales, auction everyday, many "*** lau" stock to sapulah, wait a little while if price can drop some more..
13/7/2014
A : Everywhere dropping price >30%, dun no which one the best, wait so long must buy now
B : Shd buy now, it is sooo cheap, lucky you!!
C : wait..wait, the mkt is sooo bad, unemployment rate damn high, very risky if you buy property, dun commit 1st, if you lost yr job, kenot pay installment, wait mkt recover a bit then buylah, trust me WAIT!!
*
+1
you made my day again! rclxms.gif
kochin
post Mar 25 2011, 03:03 PM

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whether prices is gonna come down or not, let's look at what's happening around us:
property that i could remember that was launched this year so far:
1. summer suites, sunrise
2. capers, ytl
3. KM1, berjaya
4. the Arc in cyberjaya, andaman
5. mirage by the lake, OSK
6. serin residency
7. fraser's suite
8. the place @ Cyberjaya
9. a bunch of projects on jalan puchong, okr
so far, not even a hint of it slowing down but instead, they are grabbing as if it's the last development on earth!
bubble or not, u decide lor.

kochin
post Mar 30 2011, 05:25 PM

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will the wave of BBB continue? KM1 follow by the impressive Capers.
coming up next is jaya one launch this weekend.
batter up!!
kochin
post Apr 1 2011, 01:55 PM

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invitation received to date for this coming weekend launch/preview/etc.:
1. elements @ jalan ampang
2. velocity @ jalan peel
3. Z-residence @ kinrara

are we expecting adverts or articles saying sold-out again??
kochin
post Apr 2 2011, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(bluesfingers @ Apr 1 2011, 10:52 PM)
Can those new condo launching recently which is not in a strategic/ good location e.g. deep inside puchong, surrounded by low cost, etc selling for approx. RM350k can appreciate further?

If yes, say 20% in 2-3years times upon completion = RM420k? meaning those condo in better location launching now at approx. 550k will rise till RM650k.
How about those already completed now like Desa Parkcity Nadia condo, selling RM700k for 1100sf unit, or Kota damansara OPAL selling 600k for RM1400sf? will they soar to RM 840k/1100sf & RM720k/1400sf

If someone income now, as a Senior Engineer 35 , earning a gross income of RM6500, nett Rm5600. Can he expected his wages will rise 20% to RM7800 in 2years time without promotion in post.
Even now he is struggling for his RM400k condo he bought lately.
house                                1,900.00
maintenance                        200.00
car                            600.00
petrol                            300.00
hs utility bill                          300.00
grocery                            200.00
hp                              150.00
food                            700.00
parent                                  300.00 
insurance & medical car          400.00
entertaimt (clubbing, yumcha) 200.00
hobby/ sport/ shoppin            200.00

total = RM5450.  shocking.gif  He spend almost all his money for the newly bought condo & renovation
and he is planning to get marry next year, still puzzling where to find money  cry.gif
his gf only earning RM2800 gross nett RM2400.  rclxub.gif
*
i hate to say this but as a engineer, you should be great at analysing skills. look at your structure. it's kinda a mess although i'm impress by your limits on entertainment expenses. a very discipline person indeed. okay, here goes:
1stly, i'm sure your income is slightly more if you squeeze in your allowances for handphone, mileage, etc.
2ndly, your hp usage seems a tad high at rm150/mth. maybe because package with unlimited broadband access?

ok, let's focus on task at hand. your big items: your installment. rm1900 for a rm400k condo. am expecting it to be fairly decent at this price. so what's stopping you from renting out the rooms? am sure you can gain back at least rm800 per month from there? since you are still single. even though when you do get married, there's no stopping you from continuing to rent the rooms out.
lastly, if rm6.5k ain't enough, be creative and look for part time jobs or seek better employment opportunity. senior engineer at rm6.5k, if in klang valley seems slightly below average.
good luck!

PS: run faster to escape the rat race. you are almost there! icon_rolleyes.gif
kochin
post Apr 7 2011, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 7 2011, 04:52 PM)
Hahahah....ya lor, join us la.  Let's listen to all those property owners / speculators to try to have us believe, that it will go up and up and up....These property owners will like us to believe that it will go up and buy buy buy....

Dream on la, property speculators.  Your days are numbered, this will be know as start of the end...prices will adjust by end of this year.  People don't be fooled by these property owners, developers and real estate people!  Hold your money boys...look forward to "shopping" trip on property by end of this year and early next year....

From here, the only way for property prices is SOUTH!

Don't get me wrong, i am not a bargain hunter, i am a property owner, but i am just being honest.  Property prices will be adjusted this year!
*
pretty strong words and bold statements. i would very much like to revisit your statement by end of this year.
would appreciate if others remind me by say mid of december 2011.
kochin
post Apr 7 2011, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 7 2011, 05:40 PM)
Hey, some of these people are not buying is not because they can't afford it.  It's just that they see the truth in this "property illusion".  Suddenly in just one year, that is 2010, suddenly property goes up so much.  Must be manipulation!  These people who see this are smart.  Sometimes is not about affordability.  For example, would you pay RM100 for one durian?  Can you afford it?  Well, it is expensive but i am sure many people can afford it.  But would you buy it?  Not really, unless you die die also must eat durian or you think durian will cost RM110 tomorrow.

So please, not all people don't buy now is not because they can't afford.
good example.
but just to add on there are exceptions. i remember when chinese tea was 10 cents per glass. then 20 cents, then 30 cents. when it cost 50 cents per glass, i remember myself boycotting a drink during meals for the longest of time. eventually, not jus myself but everybody starts drinking chinese tea as it is still one of the cheapest drink during meals.
how much is a cup of chinese tea now and what will be a glass costs in the future? i dunno but i'm hoping the price will come down by heart, but my brain is telling me 'dream on'.
kochin
post Apr 11 2011, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 11 2011, 12:33 PM)
actually many people expect house price to drop, my question are :-
1) how much is the degree that they expected? drop 10% fr current mkt price? 20%, 30%, 50%, or below than developer's price?
2) how much drop would make them buying their dream house?
3) Would they buy even the house price drop 50% and they still can't "really" afford to buy?
4) would they buy when the price has dropped to the level of afford-ability (even though drop 10% only)?
5) Totally not buying regardless of any price drop

IMO, I feel sometime is too general to discuss whether property price will drop or not, because somehow you will be right one day, is just when?

May be the above topic would be more realistic to be discussed further on...
*
good point.
but one very important aspect of it is timing. a drop is imminent and the big question besides how much, is how long.
usually when share market have a correction, it will only down moments before investors starts collecting.
so the big question is when a property starts dropping at say 10%, would the original potential buyer be quick enough to scoop it? and at what price will it rebounds (if it rebounds).
as i have mentioned before, if this year price rm200k, next year price rm300k, next next year price at rm250k. the question is have the property price drop? yes if you count only 2nd to 3rd year. but comparing 1st to 3rd, is still up.
so property prices is a very relative term with regards to timing.
eg. my aunt's house in ss2 was bought at rm60k for a 24x80. i think my aunt will be correct to say property price will never drop (to her buy in price).

kochin
post Apr 11 2011, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 11 2011, 01:29 PM)
Agree.
But when you ask yr aunt, try to recall when the time she decided to buy, placed the deposit, I think her friend around will say she was gila already, so far fr KL (that moment PJ is still in the jungle).. shakehead.gif
We kenot rewind the clock....
*
hahaha.
my aunt is subsale.
original price is rm30k!
i think that was about 30 to 40 years ago lah.

PS: say current value at rm800k
that's rm740k profit over say 40 years.
that still works out to >30% compounded annual return. rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by kochin: Apr 11 2011, 01:39 PM
kochin
post Apr 12 2011, 07:20 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 11 2011, 10:22 PM)
Well most of the inflated property price nowadays have rental yield <5%.

This is utmost unreasonable return, with large capital outlay required, low liquidity and high maintenance.

Bear in mind, the +-5% rental yield doesn't even take in the maintenance cost of condo / maintenance cost of the property.
*
yield can be calculated many ways.
for example, the unit is enjoying a rental rate of say rm2k per month (rm24k/yr).
the buy in price is rm240k but the current price is rm480k
so yield over buy-in price is 10% but yield over current price is 5%.
that is why some people can afford to hold so long since their initial purchase price is low and yield over current market price is low.

and i also recall long long time ago, i posted an anticipation that it will come to a point where rent rates will start to escalate. it's the natural evolution. given the scenario that massive people buy in at current prices and find themselves unable to cover the mortgage/interest with rentals receivables, they will need to raise the rates sooner or later.
when that happen, it will be another round of adjustment and correction until a stabilise price is sought.

again, i'm hoping by heart it's not gonna happen but my head thinking it most probably would.


Added on April 12, 2011, 7:23 am
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 11 2011, 11:11 PM)
Before I sold my BK4 hse in 2010, I hope property price to rise..

I suppose to sell in 2009 for 330K, then I hope price to go up, then it went up to 410K (Feb 2010), I sold. I thought it bout time and mkt has reached the peak
After I sold, I hope mkt will drop (that I can invest again), I was wrong, one year later Feb 2011, 550K can fetch for my house.
You ask me, I am in the position of hoping to drop and hoping to rise, I hv another condo in Kota Damansara for rent and another house for own stay. I am targeting to buy one more condo, shd I hope the mkt crash and I can buy the condo at a bargain?
If mkt crash, I will be benefited & vice versa, if mkt rise, I will be benefited & vice versa

If I hv bought the condo at the price I want, I will hope mkt keep rising. I think you will be in that position one day (to hope mkt recover and price increase after you purchase),
so the moment we point to someone, tomolo we are pointing to ourselves icon_idea.gif
*
i totally agree as i think those that voted in my poll of having more than 1-2 properties will be in your same dillemma.


This post has been edited by kochin: Apr 12 2011, 07:23 AM
kochin
post Apr 13 2011, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(eastern @ Apr 13 2011, 11:18 AM)
Let's us pray very hard for this to come true!!
*
wow, you praying hard for "petrol + OPR + Electricity + Food raise at same time" ??? hmm.gif

so you guys actually prefer high inflation just to counter property prices. hhhmmmm... interesting people we have here.
if that is the case, you want property prices to plunge now also can, form a support group and start a riot/protest.
do it everyday and guarantee all property price doesn't just drop, it will CRASH! thumbup.gif
kochin
post Apr 14 2011, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Apr 14 2011, 09:00 AM)
"House prices will rise by a “minimum 10 per cent” this year, depending on the area"

i'm wondering.. why is it depending on area ? tongue.gif
let say same material.. same design.. one in ipoh and one in kl/pj
why is it only the price in kl/pj rise by 10 per cent ?

i dun think the construction cost cost 10% of the props lur.. just that developer duwan the market to crash then oni say that..  haih.. dam u developer !
*
if construction cost do not constitute even 10% of the selling price, then i don't know what does! rclxub.gif
construction cost would definitely form a big chunk out of the cost my friend.
land is another chunk out of it.
the others are all % of either selling cost or costruction cost.
eg. marketing cost is % of selling cost, consultant's fees are % of construction cost, contribution to utilities companies such as tenaga, syabas, iwk is based on % of selling price, and the list goes on.
and believe it or not, all the other % factors are increasing like hell.
previously, stamp duty is only rm10 per stamping irregardless of contract. now the government is demanding a % of it! imagine a rm200million contract. last time pay rm10 stamping duty now have to fork out millions of ringgit!
believe it or not, construction cost or rather development cost is ever increasing. but question is by how much.
the ultimate truth, IMHO, is that it's okay to increase property prices (since we are comparatively cheaper by world economy standards). the biggest problem lies in our income/salary.
we are no way near our neighbours or world economy outlook by comparison.
those who wish property prices drop should definitely hope for salary increase instead.
if we continue to depress our prices, we will never ever develop as a higher income nation. we will lose more and more purchasing power. in future, we can't even afford to go for holiday in indonesia or thailand anymore as we would then become the cheaper destination for holidays.
guys, is that what we want? or do we want to go england for holidays in say 10 years time?
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 19 2011, 06:46 AM)
That's why you are over reacting lor, cityboy.  Because you own a few real estate property in the hope it will always go up and up...

This will not be the case la.  Talking back about China, haven't you heard that the real estate prices in 1st tier city, that is cities such as your Shanghai and Beijing, not your ulu-ulu cities, prices are also coming down already...  do your research la, not talk with your die die mentality that property will always go up one.  Even with the ulu-ulu places in China, do you think they plan to buy that cities and keep it empty for 10 years before people moving in, this is a clear sign of property speculation and you still want to argue against it...and Dongguan is not ulu-ulu like you always like to say la, why the shopping mall is 99% empty since completed in 2005???  No developer or buyers plan to buy a place that is completed and left empty for years...would you want to buy it?  Go buy it la, with your philosophy, keep it for 40 years la, it SURE go up one...

If you live buy that mentality, then why don't you go to US and sapu all the property.  I know one suburb in LA called Victorville.  Before the GFC at it's peak, a house there cost USD350k, now selling USD40k also nobody buy.  By the way, Victorville is not your ulu-ulu place it is around 45 minutes drive to LA city.  Go check it out in the internet.  Buy now and keep for like you say 40 years, it will sure go up one... buy low sell high mah, this is the low time to buy, why don't buy.  I'm sure you are some sort of working professional, USD40k cash is not a problem to you.  Why don't you go and buy now and keep it in the long run to hedge against the inflation?  Don't try to talk up the market just because you own a few real estate.
*
dude, lucerne was trying to debate with some of the information he quoted.
you too can choose to respond similiarly but you opted for sort of a shouting match cum taunting.
everybody is entitled to their own opinions lah. so just chill.
i believe, in properties, there's always ups and downs. in fact it may very well occur simultaneously except in different location.
chill, dude. icon_rolleyes.gif
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 10:45 AM

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good point you got there wankongyew.
what i'll be interested to know is the number of transactions that went through during those so called peak pricing.
i would have thought if there were substantially transactions at those record pricing, then everybody would have 'wet their hair'.
and when a lot of people start wetting their hair, it's the 'too big to fail concept' and in the event of failure, it's the waiting for bailout scenario.

personally, i am in dilemma because:
1. i think property in malaysia is dirt cheap comparing to neighbouring countries and globally
2. i think property in malaysia is unaffordable to general public
so how? on one hand i want it to go up, on the other hand, i want it to go down.
so i still standby my wish for salary to go up up up to satisfy both my wishlist!

This post has been edited by kochin: Apr 19 2011, 10:46 AM
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 19 2011, 11:52 AM)
before putting all yr money and debt into prop, pls think about having enough to eat and keep yr car or not!!

ok, i am sure some will say everything still cheap in malayisa incl homes...

user posted image

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...rchasing-power/
*
thanks for the info.
would appreciate if someone can convert into one currency for comparison.
and does singapore honda civic really cost SGD145k??? i always thought malaysia car is the most expensive ler.

kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 01:15 PM)
no need to convert into one currency. For example, A Malaysian earns RM2000 a month and a singaporean earns SGD2000 a month.

Broaband in Singapore costs SGD68.9 a month will take up 68.9/2000 = 3.4% of the Singaporean's monthly income.
Broaband in M'sia costs RM149 a month will take up 149/2000 = 7.5% of the Malaysian's monthly income.

and just apply the rest. Of course, if one earns SGD and buy everything in RM, his purchasing power is many many times higher. But if one earns RM and wanna live in SGD, purchasing power drop many many times as well. This is the difference between a developed country that has strong currency and a developing one.

The point is: people at different country earn different currencies.

just need to put in the average income of an Uni graduate etc then we can tell the living standard.


Added on April 19, 2011, 1:19 pm

well done +1
maybe the research house should input Crime Rate as well. This is also a cost of living  tongue.gif
*
actually the data only reinforce my statement that the problem ain't higher property price. it's our salary!!
despite the average salary shown in the table (even i have doubt that an average auditor earns as much (say about 5 years experience?) but i could be wrong since i'm not in that line), the salary is one of the lowest among all even without conversion. as for consumables, malaysia consistently ranks at almost the top for each category. this underlies the biggest problem. low income, high cost of living.
guess something drastic needs to kick in before all hell breaks loose.
to me, the only sustainable way is high income. big question is, how do we achieve this??
kochin
post Apr 19 2011, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 19 2011, 02:53 PM)
Ya, that's what many forumers here have been talking about. The property prices are way too high for an average Malaysian to afford, so either
1) the property prices will be stagnant waiting for Malaysian's income to increase or
2) Property prices adjusted

i heard someone who works in HK as auditor (abt 8 years experience) is earning >50K HKD a month (a high school graduate working as receptionist in HK can earn >10K HKD a month) and another person who works in Singapore (manager) earnings > SGD10K a month.


Added on April 19, 2011, 2:56 pm

agreed on the salary part. My friend who is also fm melaka was earning RM1500 a month working for a BIG company in melaka 10 years ago. her youngest brother started working 2 years ago, starting pay also the same (no inflation within the 8 years period ke ???) but they both now working in KL.

if i m not mistaken, even working for the same company but one in KL another one in melaka, pay will be different also.
*
last time my friend went interview with a rather large IT firm.
the firm offer him around rm2k (that was 10 years ago). told him he can opt to take this pay and start work either in kl or kuantan.
he took kuantan. his reason? higher spending power.
last i heard, he is doing very well with a MNC company and being close to the head of department of IT liao.
already bought a big terrace house with >RM100k renovations done. (this was i think about 3 years ago).
this few years? pai seh, never call him liao.

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