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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 09:53 AM

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like i said many many times.
property prices ain't the problem.
purchasing power or lack of it and low income is the main culprit.
and don't even get me started on the source of it.
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 10:04 AM)
i reckon the next thing that happens will be increase of rental wink.gif
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back to one of my shitty idea?! shocking.gif
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 27 2011, 11:05 AM)
Proposed MRT walking distance from my condo. Am I happy? Sort off.

But I still want every single penny of our hard earned money accountable!  vmad.gif
Cut and paste from email:-


Subject: FW: MRT Sungai - Buloh 150km


Would you believe it?

It cost #&^@% ,,!,, to build the Sungai Buloh MRT a distance of
ONLY 150km a walloping USD17B (RM53B) or a cost of
USD $133M per km

verses

China's Bejing - Shanghai  (Fastest train in the World @350km per hour)
a distance of 1,318km ONLY USD22B or USD $16M per km  ??????

Check the web below

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...32&sec=business

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing%E2%80...h-Speed_Railway

Another ploy to BANKRUPT the country!
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that's because chinese labour is cheap and malaysian labour is expensive.
made in china versus made in malaysia mah... doh.gif
we are riding straight to hell. next stop, satan's residence!

kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 12:29 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 27 2011, 12:22 PM)
yeah right, back to your shitty idea  laugh.gif

reason are property price risen significantly, landlord will not be able to cover loan with rental. how long is the landlord willing to bleed cash? one landlord increase rental might not have effect, but how about when most of the landlord are already feeling the pain and they slowly increase rental? previously if the tenants find the rental is high, tenant look for somewhere else, but in this situation, everywhere rental has increased, tenant cannot afford to buy, the only option is to continue paying higher rental.

i remember a business guru in taiwan once said, things will always swing from one end to another. for example, when there are too much exclusive (expensive) restaurant in the market, affordable mamak will start mushrooming. in this context, when property price has increased to certain level, which indicates has reached the end of a swing, rental will be another end to rise

secondly is combo with government high income nation transformation, what is unaffordable today will be affordable tomorrow
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nice analysis. but mamak is great at their disguise. selling sub-standard food at fair value price. but when compared apple to apple, we might end up paying more for mamak's food versus fancy restaurant.
nowadays, cheap food is McValue lunch! many years ago, i recall fast food are premium food for myself. can only eat once in a blue moon. nowadays, it's one of the cheapest choice for me (but extremely unhealthy lor).

just to add on, when a tenant starts jumping and looking for lower rent, they might be sacrificing some comfort in their selection. eg. say rm1k ro rm800 per month. maybe they jump from a better apartment to a slightly worse off apartment with smaller built up.
in reality, he might be paying rm200 less but he's paying a higher psf basis.

kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 27 2011, 01:26 PM)
Minimum wages policy won't able to lead nation into high income.

If you set minimum wages at Rm1000, then those above Rm1000 is not going to be affected, same income.
Those earn Rm800, now getting Rm1000 due to minimum wages, but employer may feel profit margin being squeezed or no profit at all, so raise the product, the wages increase back to square 1.
Wages increase 20%, goods increase 20%, house increase 20%, you get zero benefit in the process.

High income is not about minimum wages.
High income is about your country able to produce more and more valued added product.
For eg.
Instead export timber log directly at Rm1000, now you set up local mill, furniture factory, turn the timber into high class furniture which can be export and sold at Rm5,000.
You valued added Rm4,000 locally, as compared export raw timber log Rm 1000
There is extra Rm4,000 opportunities created, money being earned, can be spreaded to more wages to more people locally.

Increase salary blindly or can mean straight away can turn country into high income earner without any output increment.
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mod is right.
i remember when working under my previous firm, my big boss constantly reminded me
"you must work harder and produce more and the salary adjustment will follow suit"
then we just thought it's typical boss saying.
now we realise that if we work harder and better, automatically transform to better profitability to company and translating to better pay and bonuses to the staff.
so until now, i still remember my boss preaching, work first, pay later. funny thing is somehow things are going smoother once i'd accepted the idea.
to those hoping for a payrise, make sure your company is in a position to do so.
kochin
post Apr 27 2011, 02:42 PM

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one of the saddest 'incentive' given to date was luring the overseas people coming back by giving them tax rebates.
to me, it's another demotivator for presently local people. especially good local people. indirectly, they are just saying outside=good, inside=no good.
by virtue of this incentive alone, i never felt more urge to venture outside.
classic case of bad implementation.
at least to muah.
kochin
post Apr 28 2011, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(Beth79 @ Apr 27 2011, 11:43 PM)
Agreed. I have another girl in my team, spm grad. I think she's much better than the uni grads. She cares about her job and she is always willing to learn. She self learned word and excel. She does profit projections charts for us and sends us monthly updates on our progress. Mind you, this is not within her job scope nor is it something my boss expects her to do. Needless to say despite being less "educated", she earns much more than the uni grads and she is much more respected than the rest of them. When she resigned my boss hiked up her pay by telling the management that if she leaves, he will retire. I need to find more people like that. Unfortunately they are so rare now days sad.gif
me! me! me! tongue.gif
kochin
post May 3 2011, 08:48 AM

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another price hike coming??
kochin
post May 3 2011, 09:36 AM

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rent?
kochin
post May 3 2011, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ May 3 2011, 04:43 PM)
I think we need add more cautious as guru Gavin Tee share that

http://www.swhengtee.com.my/swhengtee-news...ction-this-year
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that just shows how credible he is.
earlier this year, he says malaysia property prices to hit rm5k psf by 2015. now he say market correction.


Added on May 3, 2011, 8:51 pm
QUOTE(Veda @ May 3 2011, 07:54 PM)
Just want to report that prices of properties on my watchlist continue to go up. Asking prices went up by another RM10k-20k since one month ago, at one of the condos ........

Anyway, Personal Money magazine's May edition has extensive coverage on the property boom..... including on the definition of bubble etc
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would like to add on, a subsale property i was eyeing since end of last year till now has gone up by rm150k. it's a landed intermediate unit in pj.

This post has been edited by kochin: May 3 2011, 08:51 PM
kochin
post May 6 2011, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(super911 @ May 6 2011, 04:36 PM)
I think those that still buy high rise property for the sake of flipping will be the first get burned. At this price level, they just can't rent out the unit to cover the installment and if they wish to sell higher also very hard because price has gone up too much beyond affordability. Just take a condo in ss2 for example, launching price was 800k. How much do they want to flip for a profit when the condo is ready? 1 mil? How many can afford it? Furthermore, there are hundreds of units also in the market for sale. If they can't sell it for a profit, how about renting it out? Let say they take out a loan of 90%, which is 720k, installment is easily RM3k. Plus the maintenance fee, the unit has to be rented out for RM3.5K just to break even. How many is willing to rent a condo in ss2 for RM3.5K? You know I know.
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i don't understand why many people still thinks that once installment is higher than rent collectible, it's all doom.
and of course i can't speak for others especially investors if their school of thoughts are the same but consider this:
assuming the loan to be rm3k per month. how much goes to interest and how much goes to interest. this is going to be tricky because interest are initially high and taperring to low nearing the end of the tenure of the loan, right? so let's just say it's a 50/50 since by the time you finish the loan, it's like borrow rm720k, pay rm1.44mil. and so, again assuming the property does not appreciate in price and NEITHER does the property experience any drop in price (and for discussion's sake, please leave out the inflation factor for this illustration).
and the unit is rented out for say rm2.5k per month. now, the owner might be paying the additional rm500 to the bank and rm500 for maintenance. and so the big question is, is the owner losing money? is the owner at a disadvantage because he has got no positive cashflow?
i like to think that he is still making money albeit less. think of it differently, every month, he is forking out rm1k to foot a rm3.5k bill. in which, out of the rm3.5k bill, rm1.5k is his actual fixed gain (payment for principal). over the entire tenure period of the loan and when he succeed in paying off the loan, he would start to gain rm2k every month then + a fully paid property.
i know some will argue the above case with inflation, misc charges, etc.
but look at the macro aspect of it. and i believe that is why, most if not all speculators and investors are able to hold negative cashflow properties. problems only arises when rentals are lower than payment to banks that can't even cover the interest. but on hindsight, he is still paying less to own the property than a normal buyer on his own without rent.
but the above is just merely my own 2 yen...
kochin
post May 12 2011, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(tanch78 @ May 12 2011, 12:35 AM)
Household income less than RM1,500 per month to buy property RM220k. Wonder what is the monthly house loan instalment for let say 100% loan for 30 years??
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loan - RM220k
DP - RM 0
tenure - 30 yrs
int. - 4.5%
monthly payment = RM1115
kochin
post May 12 2011, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ May 12 2011, 11:02 AM)
with salary RM1500, why must one buy a house? for me, rent a room 1st... work harder to increase personal income
If parents can support, then is different scenario
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what if work too hard and exceed rm1,500 threshold and gomen say sorry cannot buy the rm220k house anymore? rclxub.gif
kochin
post May 12 2011, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(tanch78 @ May 12 2011, 12:54 PM)
I noticed a significant increase of low/medium cost flat/apartment (< RM100k) being auctioned lately. Why don't government collabrate with banks to promote these house to the poor/needy? If they are truely poor and just need a roof to live, they can't be choosy, right?

May be government can provide some incentive to those buyer, like tax break of RM10k over 3 years of tax assessment (for expense to renovate/clean up the flat). Bank can abosrb lawyear fee / stamp duty, etc as part of their corporate social resposibility and probably provide lower than market housing loan scheme.

Am I too simple minded or the above is worthwhile or possible to be implemented by the government with collabration from the banks?  hmm.gif

ps. I am not a property expert though, just my 0.01 cents.  wink.gif
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think you are onto something here.
but tough luck.
just take the haze for example. it occurs nearly every year. pattern is similiar and area is also identified. with all our technology advances, one would have thought that humans would have the capacity to prevent peat fire, no?
sometimes, ability to do something and the will to do the things are entirely different things.
some have the ability but no motives.
some have motive but no ability.
only people with ability and motive can move things around.
of course, they are extraordinary cases.
kochin
post May 14 2011, 01:19 PM

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that's why never say never.
what goes up must comes down and in share market, what goes down also will anticipate a rebound. but of course, some share just delist.
kochin
post May 16 2011, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(interferens @ May 16 2011, 01:15 AM)
so do you expect ALL Malaysian need to pay for the utilities for new developing area ? you want to stay there but all people need to pay with you...government money is people money...

i think current practice is right, you chose that area because you want all the utilities and facilities, so you need to pay for it, let peoples money goes to better education, preventing crimes so our country will be more prosper in the future....
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government is suppose to pay for it in the first place. that is why many many taxes are there in the first place.
if developer pays for all related infrastructure, why do we need to pay taxes?

fyi, when a developer apply for utilities eg telekom, water, electric, etc. they are also mandated to build their own PPU, PMU, SSU, waterline, etc.
sometimes, they are even required to surrendered some part of their land for these purposes. build all these at their own cost. upon completion, have to beg them for inspection and acceptance. once the utility company accepted it FOC, they start to charge customers for the usage. do you still think that's fair?


kochin
post May 16 2011, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(interferens @ May 16 2011, 09:30 AM)
taxes money can goes to education , healthcare, defence, road and environment maintainance, garbage managment etc....

do you know how many of public servant working in education sector ?  614744 peoples out of 1.3 mil

do you know how many public servant working in helathcare ? 228822 peoples out of 1.3mil

total of that is 843,566 peoples out of 1.3 mil it is 65%

most of the tax will goes to their salary+emolument

source : http://www.jpa.gov.my/status/index3_1.html
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am not disputing the fact that taxes needs to be paid for what you have mentioned.
but respective taxes should go to respective categories.
eg. road tax for road maintenance; iwk fees & assessment fees for garbage management; etc.

but problem arises when we still pay taxes and yet the fund received were not used for the illustrated purposes.

PS: on top of it, when developer submits plans, there's building plan fees, development charges, infrastructure fund, R& D fund, security deposit, etc.
and after all these contributions, there's still condition for the developer to build the roads themselves, pedestrian walkway, beautification and enhancement to surrounding including traffic lights too. the list goes on and on and on.

This post has been edited by kochin: May 16 2011, 09:47 AM
kochin
post May 19 2011, 08:52 AM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ May 18 2011, 11:47 PM)
I do not agree with this.

1. during 98 crisis, property did not have bubble. Share market was pretty high at that time and plunged 80% to 260 pts.
2. at that time, property price are considered peanut or chicken feed compared to now, even a drop of 20% was not painful.
3. most of the people are buying for own stay, almost no speculators at that time, so fire sell did not happened. Some people sell property ware to cover their margin account.
4. The higher it goes, the harder it falls.
5. Do not compare with the past becos history does not repeat by itself.
6. BLR was 12%, BNM has plenty of room to force BLR at all time low to bail those in the deep shit out.
7. 98 crisis was single dimensional currency crisis, who know what will hit us next? could be something like Japan, 3 in 1.
8. during 98, most of the western countries were enjoying good GDP growth, export helps our country to recover fast with a fixed RM of 3.80. Now every one has their own problem including China which could means doom if global economy take a double dip. A quick double dip is still better than a long and painful double dip like Japan.

I forsee if there were a property crisis in the future, it is going to be a catastrophic one. Be prepared.
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you have raised some excellent points. but reviewing your points i can't help to notice a lot of it is dependant on the economy and point no. 6. and if BLR is 'controlled' by government, and if they knew the consequence/catastrophe that is going to land malaysians in the event of property bubble, wouldn't the government intervene and maintain low BLR to prevent bubble bursting?
just a thought...
kochin
post May 24 2011, 02:25 PM

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last time i also use FAMA loan to secure my 1st property.
no shame in it.
less than 5 years, i fully repay them with 25% interest! smile.gif
kochin
post May 24 2011, 03:20 PM

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my version of build then sell:
1. developer take full risk first hand. cannot sell during construction. higher cost of project especially financing cost
2. upon completion, calculate actual cost per unit
3. start selling with price up mechanism
4. once hit break-even point, completely stop selling
5. reanalyse to either sell remaining units at whatsoever price (since oledi break-even mah) or if rental is good mah rent out all the units lor
6. keeping units means recurring profit AND majority votes during AGM for JMB

if the above materialise, might even be worse for property market since we are even more dependant and at the mercy of developers.

not sure about countries that practises build then sell. maybe experts can share how they do it overseas. but overseas practise might not be applicable in m'sia bcos too many corrupted people here??

PS: would be extremely dangerous too if developer starts disposing remaining units at prices below initial buyers price if developers are in need of funding. it could well decide the fate of a development entirely by their decisions. purchasers lose eventually.

This post has been edited by kochin: May 24 2011, 03:22 PM

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